ALLOAllogene Therapeutics, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $1.65 · now $1.65 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ALLO has typically landed between $1.20 and $2.31 — a range of −27.5% to +40.0% from the issuance price $1.65.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,978 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-10-11 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($1.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ALLO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $1.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.2worst · -27.5%$2.31best · +40.0%
  • now $1.65 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.57 (-4.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.34–$1.8
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.2–$2.31
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,978 windows spanning 2018-10-11 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2021-09-09−48.0%−48.0%+9.5%
2022-11-25−47.8%−47.8%+0.0%
2021-09-13−45.8%−47.0%+11.6%
3 best
2020-04-23+93.4%−4.7%+93.4%
2026-01-28+91.7%+0.0%+91.7%
2020-04-21+86.6%+0.0%+86.6%

1,978 overlapping windows · 2018-10-11 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

  • December 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Consolidation of First-Line MRD+ Remission With Cema-cel in Patients With LBCL (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
63%
+7.7%
n=8
Feb
75%
+11.2%
n=8
Mar
13%
−13.0%
n=8
Apr
50%
+0.7%
n=8
May
25%
−1.1%
n=8
Jun
38%
+2.1%
n=8
Jul
50%
+3.0%
n=8
Aug
38%
−4.3%
n=8
Sep
63%
−3.4%
n=8
Oct
14%
−8.8%
n=7
Nov
38%
+2.6%
n=8
Dec
13%
−10.0%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$3$12026-08-21: 1 insider sale, $63K — Douglas Earl Martin2026-04-21: 1 insider sale, $22K — Yoshiyama Annie2026-03-31: 1 insider sale, $7K — Beneski Benjamin Machinas2026-03-16: 2 insider sales, $130K — Chang David D, Beneski Benjamin Machinas2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $19K — Beneski Benjamin Machinas2026-02-02: 6 insider sales, $337K — Chang David D, Roberts Zachary, Parker Geoffrey M., Douglas Earl Martin …2026-01-21: 1 insider sale, $41K — Roberts Zachary2025-11-17: 1 insider sale, $959 — Beneski Benjamin Machinas2025-10-21: 1 insider sale, $46K — Parker Geoffrey M.2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $46K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $9592026-01: 1 open-market sale, $41K2026-02: 6 open-market sales, $337K2026-03: 4 open-market sales, $156K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $22K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $63K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Douglas Earl Martin — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Yoshiyama Annie — Sale on 2026-04-21, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Beneski Benjamin Machinas — Sale on 2026-03-31, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Chang David D — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Beneski Benjamin Machinas — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Beneski Benjamin Machinas — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Chang David D — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Roberts Zachary — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Parker Geoffrey M. — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Douglas Earl Martin — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Beneski Benjamin Machinas — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Yoshiyama Annie — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Roberts Zachary — Sale on 2026-01-21, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Beneski Benjamin Machinas — Sale on 2025-11-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Parker Geoffrey M. — Sale on 2025-10-21, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-21Douglas Earl MartinofficerSale29,697 @ $2.12$63K−5.7% of holding−19.2%not yet — horizon still open488,267Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-21Yoshiyama AnnieofficerSale9,586 @ $2.31$22K−7.1% of holding−23.4%not yet — horizon still open124,517Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-31Beneski Benjamin MachinasofficerSale2,867 @ $2.50$7K−1.4% of holding−23.2%not yet — horizon still open195,338Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-16Chang David DdirectorSale47,763 @ $2.47$118K−0.9% of holding−16.0%−43.0%5,150,599Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-16Beneski Benjamin MachinasofficerSale4,835 @ $2.47$12K−2.4% of holding−16.0%−43.0%198,205Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Beneski Benjamin MachinasofficerSale7,132 @ $2.60$19K−3.4% of holding−2.9%−36.9%203,040Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Chang David DdirectorSale95,269 @ $1.80$171K−1.8% of holding+36.8%−9.9%5,185,862Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Roberts ZacharyofficerSale35,700 @ $1.77$63K−5.8% of holding+36.8%−9.9%581,166Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Parker Geoffrey M.directorSale24,001 @ $1.76$42K−1.9% of holding+36.8%−9.9%1,252,795Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Douglas Earl MartinofficerSale22,900 @ $1.76$40K−3.9% of holding+36.8%−9.9%564,948Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Beneski Benjamin MachinasofficerSale7,549 @ $1.73$13K−3.5% of holding+36.8%−9.9%210,172Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Yoshiyama AnnieofficerSale4,167 @ $1.72$7K−3.1% of holding+36.8%−9.9%130,322Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-21Roberts ZacharyofficerSale26,269 @ $1.56$41K−4.1% of holding+27.5%+5.5%616,866Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-17Beneski Benjamin MachinasofficerSale786 @ $1.22$959−0.4% of holding+14.6%+42.5%217,721Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-21Parker Geoffrey M.directorSale36,744 @ $1.26$46K−2.8% of holding+1.3%+80.4%1,276,796Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-10MESSEMER DEBORAH M.directorSale36,885 @ $1.42$52K−25.6% of holding−16.0%−16.6%107,431Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-21Yoshiyama AnnieofficerSale9,601 @ $1.41$14K−6.8% of holding−33.7%−40.5%130,663Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-14Chang David DdirectorSale46,668 @ $1.96$91K−0.9% of holding−22.4%−58.9%5,276,569Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14Beneski Benjamin MachinasofficerSale5,488 @ $1.98$11K−2.5% of holding−22.4%−58.9%218,507Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-18MESSEMER DEBORAH M.directorSale13,313 @ $2.43$32K−8.4% of holding−33.2%−68.3%144,316Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03Chang David DdirectorSale46,003 @ $1.68$77K−0.9% of holding+18.0%−38.6%5,317,237Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03Roberts ZacharyofficerSale18,832 @ $1.70$32K−2.8% of holding+18.0%−38.6%643,135Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03MOORE TIMOTHY L.directorSale14,746 @ $1.71$25K−5.6% of holding+18.0%−38.6%250,713Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03Douglas Earl MartinofficerSale6,404 @ $1.71$11K−1.1% of holding+18.0%−38.6%587,848Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03Parker Geoffrey M.directorSale4,361 @ $1.73$8K−0.3% of holding+18.0%−38.6%1,301,540Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-21Roberts ZacharyofficerSale27,199 @ $1.78$48K−5.3% of holding+21.6%−15.6%488,054Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09MESSEMER DEBORAH M.directorSale9,136 @ $2.18$20K−5.5% of holding−5.6%−38.8%157,629Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-05Humer Franz BdirectorSale9,221 @ $2.16$20K−2.9% of holding+12.5%−31.8%307,507Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-06-18MESSEMER DEBORAH M.directorSale18,641 @ $2.28$42K−10.1% of holding+26.5%−18.0%166,765Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-05-30Humer Franz BdirectorSale11,200 @ $2.34$26K−4.2% of holding−10.0%−13.7%255,253Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-05-16Belldegrun AriedirectorPurchase1,724,137 @ $2.90$5.0Mownership Δ n/a−27.1%−31.2%1,724,137Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-01-30Parker Geoffrey M.directorPurchase190 @ $3.60$683+0.0% of holding+32.9%−31.2%819,590Form 4 · filed 36 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

64 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01Roberts ZacharyofficerAward / grant476,190476,190Form 4
2026-07-01Roberts ZacharyofficerAward / grant134,530134,530Form 4
2026-06-18Kazam Joshua AdirectorOption exercise47,7000Form 4
2026-06-18Kazam Joshua AdirectorAward / grant95,40095,400Form 4
2026-06-18Humer Franz BdirectorAward / grant95,40095,400Form 4
2026-06-18WITTE OWEN N.directorAward / grant95,40095,400Form 4
2026-06-18MESSEMER DEBORAH M.directorAward / grant95,40095,400Form 4
2026-06-18Barrett Elizabeth A.directorAward / grant95,40095,400Form 4
2026-06-18Mayo StephendirectorAward / grant144,400144,400Form 4
2026-06-18SATO VICKI LdirectorAward / grant95,40095,400Form 4
2026-06-18Kazam Joshua AdirectorOption exercise47,700398,463Form 4
2026-02-02Chang David DdirectorAward / grant392,586392,586Form 4
2026-02-02Chang David DdirectorAward / grant1,387,9311,387,931Form 4
2026-02-02Douglas Earl MartinofficerAward / grant539,072539,072Form 4
2026-02-02Douglas Earl MartinofficerAward / grant152,480152,480Form 4
2026-02-02Parker Geoffrey M.directorAward / grant539,072539,072Form 4
2026-02-02Beneski Benjamin MachinasofficerAward / grant373,757373,757Form 4
2026-02-02Beneski Benjamin MachinasofficerAward / grant105,720105,720Form 4
2026-02-02Belldegrun AriedirectorAward / grant929,913929,913Form 4
2026-02-02Belldegrun AriedirectorAward / grant263,033263,033Form 4
2026-02-02Roberts ZacharyofficerAward / grant718,763718,763Form 4
2026-02-02Roberts ZacharyofficerAward / grant203,307203,307Form 4
2026-02-02Parker Geoffrey M.directorAward / grant152,480152,480Form 4
2026-02-02Yoshiyama AnnieofficerAward / grant179,691179,691Form 4
2026-02-02Yoshiyama AnnieofficerAward / grant50,82750,827Form 4
2025-12-18Kazam Joshua AdirectorOption exercise47,700350,763Form 4
2025-12-18Kazam Joshua AdirectorOption exercise47,70047,700Form 4
2025-06-18Barrett Elizabeth A.directorAward / grant95,40095,400Form 4
2025-06-18Kazam Joshua AdirectorAward / grant94,50094,500Form 4
2025-06-18WITTE OWEN N.directorAward / grant95,40095,400Form 4
2025-06-18MESSEMER DEBORAH M.directorAward / grant95,40095,400Form 4
2025-06-18SATO VICKI LdirectorAward / grant144,400144,400Form 4
2025-06-18Mayo StephendirectorAward / grant95,40095,400Form 4
2025-06-18Humer Franz BdirectorAward / grant95,40095,400Form 4
2025-03-01Beneski Benjamin MachinasofficerAward / grant31,755223,995Form 4
2025-03-01Beneski Benjamin MachinasofficerAward / grant112,339112,339Form 4
2025-01-24Belldegrun AriedirectorAward / grant369,9572,236,816Form 4
2025-01-24Douglas Earl MartinofficerAward / grant144,928594,252Form 4
2025-01-24Douglas Earl MartinofficerAward / grant512,370512,370Form 4
2025-01-24Roberts ZacharyofficerAward / grant614,844614,844Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.