Issued 2026-09-25 at $1.65 · now $1.65 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ALLO has typically landed between $1.20 and $2.31 — a range of −27.5% to +40.0% from the issuance price $1.65.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,978 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-10-11 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($1.65) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ALLO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $1.65 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.65 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.57 (-4.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.34–$1.8
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.2–$2.31
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-09-09 | −48.0% | −48.0% | +9.5% |
| 2022-11-25 | −47.8% | −47.8% | +0.0% |
| 2021-09-13 | −45.8% | −47.0% | +11.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-23 | +93.4% | −4.7% | +93.4% |
| 2026-01-28 | +91.7% | +0.0% | +91.7% |
| 2020-04-21 | +86.6% | +0.0% | +86.6% |
1,978 overlapping windows · 2018-10-11 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- December 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Consolidation of First-Line MRD+ Remission With Cema-cel in Patients With LBCL (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Douglas Earl Martin | officer | Sale | 29,697 @ $2.12 | $63K | −5.7% of holding | −19.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 488,267 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Yoshiyama Annie | officer | Sale | 9,586 @ $2.31 | $22K | −7.1% of holding | −23.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,517 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Beneski Benjamin Machinas | officer | Sale | 2,867 @ $2.50 | $7K | −1.4% of holding | −23.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 195,338 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Chang David D | director | Sale | 47,763 @ $2.47 | $118K | −0.9% of holding | −16.0% | −43.0% | 5,150,599 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Beneski Benjamin Machinas | officer | Sale | 4,835 @ $2.47 | $12K | −2.4% of holding | −16.0% | −43.0% | 198,205 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Beneski Benjamin Machinas | officer | Sale | 7,132 @ $2.60 | $19K | −3.4% of holding | −2.9% | −36.9% | 203,040 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Chang David D | director | Sale | 95,269 @ $1.80 | $171K | −1.8% of holding | +36.8% | −9.9% | 5,185,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Roberts Zachary | officer | Sale | 35,700 @ $1.77 | $63K | −5.8% of holding | +36.8% | −9.9% | 581,166 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Parker Geoffrey M. | director | Sale | 24,001 @ $1.76 | $42K | −1.9% of holding | +36.8% | −9.9% | 1,252,795 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Douglas Earl Martin | officer | Sale | 22,900 @ $1.76 | $40K | −3.9% of holding | +36.8% | −9.9% | 564,948 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Beneski Benjamin Machinas | officer | Sale | 7,549 @ $1.73 | $13K | −3.5% of holding | +36.8% | −9.9% | 210,172 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Yoshiyama Annie | officer | Sale | 4,167 @ $1.72 | $7K | −3.1% of holding | +36.8% | −9.9% | 130,322 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Roberts Zachary | officer | Sale | 26,269 @ $1.56 | $41K | −4.1% of holding | +27.5% | +5.5% | 616,866 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Beneski Benjamin Machinas | officer | Sale | 786 @ $1.22 | $959 | −0.4% of holding | +14.6% | +42.5% | 217,721 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-21 | Parker Geoffrey M. | director | Sale | 36,744 @ $1.26 | $46K | −2.8% of holding | +1.3% | +80.4% | 1,276,796 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | MESSEMER DEBORAH M. | director | Sale | 36,885 @ $1.42 | $52K | −25.6% of holding | −16.0% | −16.6% | 107,431 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Yoshiyama Annie | officer | Sale | 9,601 @ $1.41 | $14K | −6.8% of holding | −33.7% | −40.5% | 130,663 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Chang David D | director | Sale | 46,668 @ $1.96 | $91K | −0.9% of holding | −22.4% | −58.9% | 5,276,569 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Beneski Benjamin Machinas | officer | Sale | 5,488 @ $1.98 | $11K | −2.5% of holding | −22.4% | −58.9% | 218,507 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | MESSEMER DEBORAH M. | director | Sale | 13,313 @ $2.43 | $32K | −8.4% of holding | −33.2% | −68.3% | 144,316 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Chang David D | director | Sale | 46,003 @ $1.68 | $77K | −0.9% of holding | +18.0% | −38.6% | 5,317,237 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Roberts Zachary | officer | Sale | 18,832 @ $1.70 | $32K | −2.8% of holding | +18.0% | −38.6% | 643,135 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | MOORE TIMOTHY L. | director | Sale | 14,746 @ $1.71 | $25K | −5.6% of holding | +18.0% | −38.6% | 250,713 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Douglas Earl Martin | officer | Sale | 6,404 @ $1.71 | $11K | −1.1% of holding | +18.0% | −38.6% | 587,848 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Parker Geoffrey M. | director | Sale | 4,361 @ $1.73 | $8K | −0.3% of holding | +18.0% | −38.6% | 1,301,540 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Roberts Zachary | officer | Sale | 27,199 @ $1.78 | $48K | −5.3% of holding | +21.6% | −15.6% | 488,054 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | MESSEMER DEBORAH M. | director | Sale | 9,136 @ $2.18 | $20K | −5.5% of holding | −5.6% | −38.8% | 157,629 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Humer Franz B | director | Sale | 9,221 @ $2.16 | $20K | −2.9% of holding | +12.5% | −31.8% | 307,507 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-18 | MESSEMER DEBORAH M. | director | Sale | 18,641 @ $2.28 | $42K | −10.1% of holding | +26.5% | −18.0% | 166,765 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-30 | Humer Franz B | director | Sale | 11,200 @ $2.34 | $26K | −4.2% of holding | −10.0% | −13.7% | 255,253 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-16 | Belldegrun Arie | director | Purchase | 1,724,137 @ $2.90 | $5.0M | ownership Δ n/a | −27.1% | −31.2% | 1,724,137 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-01-30 | Parker Geoffrey M. | director | Purchase | 190 @ $3.60 | $683 | +0.0% of holding | +32.9% | −31.2% | 819,590 | Form 4 · filed 36 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
64 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Roberts Zachary | officer | Award / grant | 476,190 | 476,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Roberts Zachary | officer | Award / grant | 134,530 | 134,530 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Kazam Joshua A | director | Option exercise | 47,700 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Kazam Joshua A | director | Award / grant | 95,400 | 95,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Humer Franz B | director | Award / grant | 95,400 | 95,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | WITTE OWEN N. | director | Award / grant | 95,400 | 95,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | MESSEMER DEBORAH M. | director | Award / grant | 95,400 | 95,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Barrett Elizabeth A. | director | Award / grant | 95,400 | 95,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Mayo Stephen | director | Award / grant | 144,400 | 144,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | SATO VICKI L | director | Award / grant | 95,400 | 95,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Kazam Joshua A | director | Option exercise | 47,700 | 398,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Chang David D | director | Award / grant | 392,586 | 392,586 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Chang David D | director | Award / grant | 1,387,931 | 1,387,931 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Douglas Earl Martin | officer | Award / grant | 539,072 | 539,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Douglas Earl Martin | officer | Award / grant | 152,480 | 152,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Parker Geoffrey M. | director | Award / grant | 539,072 | 539,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Beneski Benjamin Machinas | officer | Award / grant | 373,757 | 373,757 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Beneski Benjamin Machinas | officer | Award / grant | 105,720 | 105,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Belldegrun Arie | director | Award / grant | 929,913 | 929,913 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Belldegrun Arie | director | Award / grant | 263,033 | 263,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Roberts Zachary | officer | Award / grant | 718,763 | 718,763 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Roberts Zachary | officer | Award / grant | 203,307 | 203,307 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Parker Geoffrey M. | director | Award / grant | 152,480 | 152,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Yoshiyama Annie | officer | Award / grant | 179,691 | 179,691 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Yoshiyama Annie | officer | Award / grant | 50,827 | 50,827 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Kazam Joshua A | director | Option exercise | 47,700 | 350,763 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Kazam Joshua A | director | Option exercise | 47,700 | 47,700 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Barrett Elizabeth A. | director | Award / grant | 95,400 | 95,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Kazam Joshua A | director | Award / grant | 94,500 | 94,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | WITTE OWEN N. | director | Award / grant | 95,400 | 95,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | MESSEMER DEBORAH M. | director | Award / grant | 95,400 | 95,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | SATO VICKI L | director | Award / grant | 144,400 | 144,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Mayo Stephen | director | Award / grant | 95,400 | 95,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Humer Franz B | director | Award / grant | 95,400 | 95,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Beneski Benjamin Machinas | officer | Award / grant | 31,755 | 223,995 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Beneski Benjamin Machinas | officer | Award / grant | 112,339 | 112,339 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-24 | Belldegrun Arie | director | Award / grant | 369,957 | 2,236,816 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-24 | Douglas Earl Martin | officer | Award / grant | 144,928 | 594,252 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-24 | Douglas Earl Martin | officer | Award / grant | 512,370 | 512,370 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-24 | Roberts Zachary | officer | Award / grant | 614,844 | 614,844 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.