ALLEAllegion plcIndustrials · Security & Protection Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $152.81 · now $152.81 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALLE has typically landed between $138.41 and $171.03 — a range of −9.4% to +11.9% from the issuance price $152.81.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,204 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-11-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($152.81) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ALLE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $152.81 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$138.41worst · -9.4%$171.03best · +11.9%
  • now $152.81 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $152.53 (-0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $144.81–$160.24
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $138.41–$171.03
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,204 windows spanning 2013-11-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−38.7%−38.7%+0.0%
2020-02-20−36.0%−36.0%+0.0%
2020-02-24−32.9%−37.9%+0.0%
3 best
2022-10-12+25.9%−0.8%+25.9%
2022-10-20+25.8%+0.0%+26.9%
2026-07-09+25.1%+0.0%+25.1%

3,204 overlapping windows · 2013-11-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$13.0B
market cap
$7.62
EPS (TTM)
20.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-22
next earnings
Revenue$4.1B
'20'25
Net income$644M
'20'25
Free cash flow$686M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr15.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr31.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.10
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $152.81$134.67$240.90
  • DCF (intrinsic)$224.68
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$233.58
  • Analyst target · range $142.00–$170.00$156.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$152.81

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
62%
+1.8%
n=13
Feb
54%
+0.9%
n=13
Mar
62%
−0.3%
n=13
Apr
62%
+1.3%
n=13
May
46%
+0.2%
n=13
Jun
69%
+3.0%
n=13
Jul
62%
+3.3%
n=13
Aug
38%
−0.9%
n=13
Sep
38%
−0.6%
n=13
Oct
33%
+1.4%
n=12
Nov
92%
+4.2%
n=12
Dec
46%
−0.2%
n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$178$1252026-08-28: 1 insider purchase, $27K — MIZELL STEVEN2026-08-18: 1 insider sale, $88K — Ilardi David S.2026-08-06: 1 insider sale, $168K — Wenos Vincent2026-07-27: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Eckersley Timothy P2026-07-23: 3 insider sales, $587K — Wagnes Michael J., Musial Nickolas A. …2026-05-07: 1 insider sale, $548K — Martens Robert C.2026-03-11: 3 insider purchases, $299K — MAIN SUE …2026-02-19: 1 insider sale, $162K — MIZELL STEVEN2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $66K — MIZELL STEVEN2025-11-25: 1 insider purchase, $265K — PETERS LAUREN B2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.8M2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $265K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $227K2026-03: 3 open-market purchases, $299K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $548K2026-07: 4 open-market sales, $1.6M2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $27K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $257K↑ buys↓ salesdirector MIZELL STEVEN — Purchase on 2026-08-28, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Ilardi David S. — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Wenos Vincent — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Eckersley Timothy P — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wagnes Michael J. — Sale on 2026-07-23, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Wagnes Michael J. — Sale on 2026-07-23, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Musial Nickolas A. — Sale on 2026-07-23, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Martens Robert C. — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MAIN SUE — Purchase on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MAIN SUE — Purchase on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MAIN SUE — Purchase on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MIZELL STEVEN — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MIZELL STEVEN — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector PETERS LAUREN B — Purchase on 2025-11-25, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28MIZELL STEVENdirectorPurchase170 @ $158.28$27K+3.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open5,899Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-18Ilardi David S.officerSale549 @ $161.09$88K−3.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open13,752Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-06Wenos VincentofficerSale1,000 @ $168.25$168K−7.6% of holding−7.1%not yet — horizon still open12,096Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-27Eckersley Timothy PofficerSale6,417 @ $157.26$1.0M−17.7% of holding−2.2%not yet — horizon still open29,919Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-23Wagnes Michael J.officerSale1,716 @ $150.98$259K−5.2% of holding+1.3%not yet — horizon still open31,299Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-23Wagnes Michael J.officerSale1,468 @ $150.98$222K−4.5% of holding+1.3%not yet — horizon still open31,299Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-23Musial Nickolas A.officerSale687 @ $155.00$106K−9.2% of holding+1.3%not yet — horizon still open6,798Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-07Martens Robert C.officerSale3,993 @ $137.15$548K−31.8% of holding−7.8%not yet — horizon still open8,570Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-11MAIN SUEdirectorPurchase1,300 @ $149.58$194K+1300.0% of holding−1.6%−9.0%1,400Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-11MAIN SUEdirectorPurchase600 @ $150.05$90K+42.9% of holding−1.6%−9.0%2,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-11MAIN SUEdirectorPurchase100 @ $147.26$15Kownership Δ n/a−1.6%−9.0%100Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-19MIZELL STEVENdirectorSale1,000 @ $161.51$162K−16.9% of holding−6.3%−10.9%4,915Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18MIZELL STEVENdirectorSale400 @ $163.79$66K−6.3% of holding−7.3%−11.8%5,915Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-25PETERS LAUREN BdirectorPurchase1,600 @ $165.44$265K+32.8% of holding−5.5%−33.8%6,481Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-07Eckersley Timothy PofficerSale5,546 @ $165.37$917K−13.6% of holding+3.1%+0.6%35,287Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07Eckersley Timothy PofficerSale5,264 @ $164.12$864K−14.9% of holding+3.1%+0.6%30,023Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-25Kemp Tracy LofficerSale2,349 @ $164.89$387K−18.6% of holding+1.8%−7.8%10,273Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-25Kemp Tracy LofficerSale1,500 @ $164.98$247K−14.6% of holding+1.8%−7.8%8,773Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-09Wenos VincentofficerSale961 @ $141.88$136K−8.4% of holding−8.4%−0.8%10,434Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-11Kemp Tracy LofficerSale2,032 @ $126.74$258K−16.5% of holding+0.4%+18.3%10,273Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10Braun Jeffrey NofficerSale2,018 @ $134.68$272K−39.6% of holding+1.1%+12.8%3,077Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-04Ilardi David S.officerSale789 @ $125.28$99K−7.6% of holding+9.0%+24.3%9,625Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19SENGSTACK GREGG CdirectorPurchase8,000 @ $125.24$1.0Mownership Δ n/a+9.0%+29.4%8,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Musial Nickolas A.officerSale403 @ $124.70$50K−7.5% of holding+9.0%+29.4%4,972Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

190 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19Eckersley Timothy PofficerGift1,52728,392Form 4
2026-08-19Eckersley Timothy PofficerGift1,5271,527Form 4
2026-08-18Ilardi David S.officerOption exercise54914,301Form 4
2026-08-18Ilardi David S.officerOption exercise5490Form 4
2026-08-01Stone John HdirectorWithheld for tax11,292136,161Form 4
2026-07-23Wagnes Michael J.officerOption exercise1,46832,767Form 4
2026-07-23Wagnes Michael J.officerOption exercise1,71633,015Form 4
2026-07-23Musial Nickolas A.officerOption exercise6877,485Form 4
2026-07-23Musial Nickolas A.officerOption exercise6870Form 4
2026-07-23Wagnes Michael J.officerOption exercise1,7160Form 4
2026-07-23Wagnes Michael J.officerOption exercise1,4680Form 4
2026-07-02Blasko JosephofficerWithheld for tax1452,764Form 4
2026-06-05PETERS LAUREN BdirectorWithheld for tax4497,558Form 4
2026-06-05Rubin EllendirectorWithheld for tax2923,419Form 4
2026-06-05MAIN SUEdirectorWithheld for tax2923,137Form 4
2026-06-05Parent Haughey NicoledirectorWithheld for tax2927,938Form 4
2026-06-05Vardhan DevdirectorWithheld for tax2925,072Form 4
2026-06-05SENGSTACK GREGG CdirectorWithheld for tax2922,155Form 4
2026-06-05MIZELL STEVENdirectorWithheld for tax2925,711Form 4
2026-06-04MIZELL STEVENdirectorAward / grant1,0746,003Form 4
2026-06-04PETERS LAUREN BdirectorAward / grant1,6498,007Form 4
2026-06-04MAIN SUEdirectorAward / grant1,0743,429Form 4
2026-06-04Parent Haughey NicoledirectorAward / grant1,0748,230Form 4
2026-06-04Vardhan DevdirectorAward / grant1,0745,364Form 4
2026-06-04Rubin EllendirectorAward / grant1,0743,711Form 4
2026-06-04SENGSTACK GREGG CdirectorAward / grant1,0742,447Form 4
2026-02-24Stone John HdirectorWithheld for tax1,767147,453Form 4
2026-02-24Wagnes Michael J.officerWithheld for tax48231,299Form 4
2026-02-24Ilardi David S.officerWithheld for tax24013,669Form 4
2026-02-24Eckersley Timothy PofficerWithheld for tax22836,337Form 4
2026-02-24Martens Robert C.officerWithheld for tax10712,563Form 4
2026-02-24Hawes Jennifer LofficerWithheld for tax1068,691Form 4
2026-02-24Wenos VincentofficerWithheld for tax9713,096Form 4
2026-02-24Kemp Tracy LofficerWithheld for tax9711,358Form 4
2026-02-24Musial Nickolas A.officerWithheld for tax856,798Form 4
2026-02-22Stone John HdirectorWithheld for tax1,527149,220Form 4
2026-02-22Wagnes Michael J.officerWithheld for tax41731,781Form 4
2026-02-22Eckersley Timothy PofficerWithheld for tax21336,565Form 4
2026-02-22Ilardi David S.officerWithheld for tax15913,909Form 4
2026-02-22Hawes Jennifer LofficerWithheld for tax1008,797Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
John JamesHousepurchase2024-09-022023-11-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-11-082023-10-02$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-08-132023-07-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-06-122023-05-23$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2023-05-112023-04-03$1–15K
Diana HarshbargerHousepurchase2022-05-262022-05-02$1–15K
Diana HarshbargerHousepurchase2022-05-262022-05-02$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatepurchase2021-10-152021-09-30$1–15K
Donna ShalalaHousesale2020-04-272019-06-24$1–15K
Donna ShalalaHousepurchase2020-04-272019-03-06$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.