Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.94 · now $18.94 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALKT has typically landed between $14.73 and $22.75 — a range of −22.2% to +20.1% from the issuance price $18.94.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,342 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.94) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ALKT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.94 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $18.94 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $19.13 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.55–$20.71
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.73–$22.75
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,342 windows spanning 2021-04-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-11-16 | −36.8% | −36.8% | +0.1% |
| 2021-11-17 | −36.6% | −36.9% | +0.0% |
| 2021-04-16 | −35.8% | −35.8% | +13.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-05-02 | +44.4% | +0.0% | +44.4% |
| 2024-06-20 | +35.6% | +0.0% | +35.6% |
| 2024-06-21 | +32.7% | +0.0% | +32.7% |
1,342 overlapping windows · 2021-04-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−4.6%
n=5
Feb
40%
−7.1%
n=5
Mar
0%
−9.7%
n=5
Apr
40%
−2.7%
n=5
May
83%
+6.4%
n=6
Jun
67%
+4.0%
n=6
Jul
67%
−3.3%
n=6
Aug
83%
+4.6%
n=6
Sep
33%
−3.5%
n=6
Oct
60%
+4.6%
n=5
Nov
60%
+2.9%
n=5
Dec
60%
−1.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | director | Purchase | 675,000 @ $16.49 | $11.1M | +3.6% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,420,994 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | GENERAL ATLANTIC GENPAR (BERMUDA), L.P. | director | Purchase | 675,000 @ $16.49 | $11.1M | +3.6% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,420,994 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-13 | GENERAL ATLANTIC GENPAR (BERMUDA), L.P. | director | Purchase | 550,000 @ $16.63 | $9.1M | +3.0% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,745,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | director | Purchase | 550,000 @ $16.63 | $9.1M | +3.0% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,745,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | GENERAL ATLANTIC GENPAR (BERMUDA), L.P. | director | Purchase | 750,000 @ $16.87 | $12.7M | +4.3% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,195,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | director | Purchase | 750,000 @ $16.87 | $12.7M | +4.3% of holding | −11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,195,994 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | director | Purchase | 844,772 @ $16.63 | $14.0M | +5.1% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,445,994 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-06 | GENERAL ATLANTIC GENPAR (BERMUDA), L.P. | director | Purchase | 844,772 @ $16.63 | $14.0M | +5.1% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,445,994 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | director | Purchase | 700,000 @ $16.84 | $11.8M | +4.4% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,601,222 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | GENERAL ATLANTIC GENPAR (BERMUDA), L.P. | director | Purchase | 700,000 @ $16.84 | $11.8M | +4.4% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,601,222 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | director | Purchase | 521,771 @ $16.92 | $8.8M | +3.4% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,901,222 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | GENERAL ATLANTIC GENPAR (BERMUDA), L.P. | director | Purchase | 521,771 @ $16.92 | $8.8M | +3.4% of holding | −8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,901,222 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | GENERAL ATLANTIC GENPAR (BERMUDA), L.P. | director | Purchase | 500,000 @ $18.33 | $9.2M | +3.4% of holding | −12.8% | −1.9% | 15,379,451 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | director | Purchase | 500,000 @ $18.33 | $9.2M | +3.4% of holding | −12.8% | −1.9% | 15,379,451 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | director | Purchase | 900,000 @ $18.41 | $16.6M | +6.4% of holding | −13.9% | −10.0% | 14,879,451 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | GENERAL ATLANTIC GENPAR (BERMUDA), L.P. | director | Purchase | 900,000 @ $18.41 | $16.6M | +6.4% of holding | −13.9% | −10.0% | 14,879,451 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Payne Joseph P. | director | Purchase | 5,500 @ $18.23 | $100K | +26.0% of holding | −13.9% | −10.0% | 26,628 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | director | Purchase | 1,103,749 @ $17.56 | $19.4M | +8.6% of holding | −13.4% | −9.3% | 13,979,451 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | GENERAL ATLANTIC GENPAR (BERMUDA), L.P. | director | Purchase | 1,103,749 @ $17.56 | $19.4M | +8.6% of holding | −13.4% | −9.3% | 13,979,451 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | GENERAL ATLANTIC GENPAR (BERMUDA), L.P. | director | Purchase | 842,266 @ $17.35 | $14.6M | +7.0% of holding | −5.8% | −2.8% | 12,875,702 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | director | Purchase | 842,266 @ $17.35 | $14.6M | +7.0% of holding | −5.8% | −2.8% | 12,875,702 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Shootman Alex | director | Sale | 10,876 @ $16.59 | $180K | −0.9% of holding | −5.8% | −2.8% | 1,210,974 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | HUDSON CASSANDRA | officer | Sale | 6,869 @ $16.90 | $116K | −2.3% of holding | −3.3% | +7.0% | 286,757 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Linebarger Douglas A. | officer | Sale | 5,518 @ $16.90 | $93K | −2.5% of holding | −3.3% | +7.0% | 216,233 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Sachdeva Prerna | officer | Sale | 1,352 @ $16.90 | $23K | −2.1% of holding | −3.3% | +7.0% | 63,608 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | Shootman Alex | director | Sale | 42,930 @ $21.92 | $941K | −5.1% of holding | −1.8% | −41.3% | 798,633 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Linebarger Douglas A. | officer | Sale | 8,179 @ $20.34 | $166K | −3.6% of holding | +11.5% | −31.8% | 221,751 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Sachdeva Prerna | officer | Sale | 1,101 @ $20.34 | $22K | −1.7% of holding | +11.5% | −31.8% | 64,960 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Shootman Alex | director | Sale | 42,930 @ $25.66 | $1.1M | −5.1% of holding | −10.3% | −31.9% | 796,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | HILL W BRYAN | director | Sale | 20,366 @ $24.76 | $504K | −4.7% of holding | −7.1% | −40.5% | 409,889 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Sachdeva Prerna | officer | Sale | 2,967 @ $24.76 | $73K | −4.3% of holding | −7.1% | −40.5% | 66,061 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Shootman Alex | director | Sale | 75,000 @ $25.20 | $1.9M | −8.2% of holding | −1.0% | −41.2% | 839,493 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | GENERAL ATLANTIC GENPAR (BERMUDA), L.P. | director | Purchase | 129,391 @ $22.54 | $2.9M | +1.1% of holding | +10.0% | −35.6% | 12,033,436 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | director | Purchase | 129,391 @ $22.54 | $2.9M | +1.1% of holding | +10.0% | −35.6% | 12,033,436 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $22.31 | $2.2M | +0.8% of holding | +10.0% | −35.6% | 11,904,045 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | GENERAL ATLANTIC GENPAR (BERMUDA), L.P. | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $22.31 | $2.2M | +0.8% of holding | +10.0% | −35.6% | 11,904,045 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-12 | GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | director | Purchase | 516,771 @ $21.46 | $11.1M | +4.6% of holding | +14.1% | −30.7% | 11,804,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | GENERAL ATLANTIC GENPAR (BERMUDA), L.P. | director | Purchase | 516,771 @ $21.46 | $11.1M | +4.6% of holding | +14.1% | −30.7% | 11,804,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | director | Purchase | 400,000 @ $20.73 | $8.3M | +3.7% of holding | +19.4% | −25.5% | 11,287,274 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | GENERAL ATLANTIC GENPAR (BERMUDA), L.P. | director | Purchase | 400,000 @ $20.73 | $8.3M | +3.7% of holding | +19.4% | −25.5% | 11,287,274 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | GENERAL ATLANTIC GENPAR (BERMUDA), L.P. | director | Purchase | 250,000 @ $20.65 | $5.2M | +2.4% of holding | +19.4% | −25.5% | 10,887,274 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P. | director | Purchase | 250,000 @ $20.65 | $5.2M | +2.4% of holding | +19.4% | −25.5% | 10,887,274 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Shootman Alex | director | Sale | 42,930 @ $30.53 | $1.3M | −4.5% of holding | −5.4% | −44.5% | 914,493 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | HILL W BRYAN | director | Sale | 20,365 @ $28.36 | $578K | −4.5% of holding | −2.0% | −42.2% | 430,255 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Linebarger Douglas A. | officer | Sale | 7,170 @ $28.36 | $203K | −2.9% of holding | −2.0% | −42.2% | 238,172 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Sachdeva Prerna | officer | Sale | 155 @ $28.36 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | −2.0% | −42.2% | 69,028 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | Shootman Alex | director | Sale | 75,000 @ $28.99 | $2.2M | −7.3% of holding | −2.1% | −40.9% | 957,423 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-15 | Payne Joseph P. | director | Purchase | 8,200 @ $30.46 | $250K | +63.4% of holding | −12.9% | −48.6% | 21,128 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Shootman Alex | director | Sale | 35,408 @ $24.28 | $860K | −3.3% of holding | +5.6% | −9.6% | 1,031,485 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | HILL W BRYAN | director | Sale | 17,409 @ $30.41 | $529K | −3.7% of holding | −6.7% | −27.3% | 450,620 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Linebarger Douglas A. | officer | Sale | 4,358 @ $30.41 | $133K | −1.8% of holding | −6.7% | −27.3% | 244,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-26 | Shootman Alex | director | Sale | 71,421 @ $29.71 | $2.1M | −6.3% of holding | −4.6% | −23.7% | 1,070,472 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-26 | Shootman Alex | director | Sale | 3,579 @ $30.32 | $109K | −0.3% of holding | −4.6% | −23.7% | 1,066,893 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-13 | HILL W BRYAN | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $33.43 | $3.3M | −22.0% of holding | −5.6% | −25.7% | 353,841 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | HILL W BRYAN | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $39.77 | $4.0M | −22.0% of holding | −9.4% | −28.5% | 353,841 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | Linebarger Douglas A. | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $40.05 | $2.0M | −20.7% of holding | −11.4% | −32.3% | 191,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Shootman Alex | director | Sale | 39,143 @ $38.32 | $1.5M | −4.0% of holding | −6.8% | −26.0% | 942,064 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Bohanon Stephen | officer | Sale | 18,492 @ $39.15 | $724K | −5.2% of holding | −7.6% | −24.6% | 339,712 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-05 | Bohanon Stephen | officer | Sale | 2,576 @ $39.50 | $102K | −0.8% of holding | −7.6% | −24.6% | 337,136 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
74 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Shootman Alex | director | Withheld for tax | 16,188 | 1,169,409 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | HUDSON CASSANDRA | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,293 | 324,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Linebarger Douglas A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,381 | 337,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Shootman Alex | director | Withheld for tax | 5,205 | 1,185,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sachdeva Prerna | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,421 | 85,001 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | HUDSON CASSANDRA | officer | Award / grant | 52,116 | 332,751 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | SMITH BRIAN R | director | Award / grant | 1,180 | 565,722 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Linville Judson C | director | Award / grant | 457 | 20,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | FOX JEFFREY H | director | Award / grant | 457 | 20,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Alvarez Maria Ines | director | Award / grant | 685 | 70,594 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Mitchell Steven R | director | Award / grant | 533 | 98,026 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Shootman Alex | director | Withheld for tax | 16,188 | 1,190,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | HUDSON CASSANDRA | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,122 | 280,635 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Linebarger Douglas A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,819 | 344,646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Shootman Alex | director | Withheld for tax | 5,205 | 1,206,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sachdeva Prerna | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,370 | 86,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Linville Judson C | director | Award / grant | 20,323 | 20,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Morgan Susanna | director | Award / grant | 11,357 | 23,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Yastine Barbara A. | director | Award / grant | 11,357 | 92,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Mitchell Steven R | director | Award / grant | 11,357 | 97,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Alvarez Maria Ines | director | Award / grant | 11,357 | 69,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | KANE CHARLES | director | Award / grant | 11,357 | 54,646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | FOX JEFFREY H | director | Award / grant | 20,323 | 20,323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | SMITH BRIAN R | director | Award / grant | 11,357 | 564,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Osnoss Raphael | director | Award / grant | 11,357 | 53,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Payne Joseph P. | director | Award / grant | 11,357 | 37,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Alvarez Maria Ines | director | Award / grant | 674 | 58,552 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Mitchell Steven R | director | Award / grant | 524 | 86,136 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-05 | SMITH BRIAN R | director | Award / grant | 1,160 | 553,185 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Linebarger Douglas A. | officer | Award / grant | 66,506 | 282,739 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Linebarger Douglas A. | officer | Award / grant | 66,505 | 349,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Shootman Alex | director | Award / grant | 211,609 | 1,010,242 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Shootman Alex | director | Award / grant | 211,608 | 1,221,850 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Sachdeva Prerna | officer | Award / grant | 24,184 | 87,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Alvarez Maria Ines | director | Award / grant | 255 | 57,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | Mitchell Steven R | director | Award / grant | 396 | 85,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-05 | SMITH BRIAN R | director | Award / grant | 877 | 552,025 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-29 | HUDSON CASSANDRA | officer | Award / grant | 293,626 | 293,626 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-07 | Shootman Alex | director | Award / grant | 45,000 | 841,563 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-05 | SMITH BRIAN R | director | Award / grant | 786 | 551,148 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.