ALKSAlkermes plcHealthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.07 · now $46.07 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALKS has typically landed between $40.16 and $53.94 — a range of −12.8% to +17.1% from the issuance price $46.07.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ALKS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$40.16worst · -12.8%$53.94best · +17.1%
  • now $46.07 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $46.54 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $43.43–$49.66
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $40.16–$53.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2015-12-28−61.8%−61.8%+0.0%
2015-12-29−59.4%−61.1%+0.7%
2016-01-08−59.2%−59.2%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+65.4%+0.0%+70.8%
2008-11-21+59.0%+0.0%+63.6%
2008-12-01+57.5%+0.0%+57.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
75%
+4.7%
n=20
Feb
45%
+0.6%
n=20
Mar
55%
+0.3%
n=20
Apr
50%
−1.2%
n=20
May
65%
+3.4%
n=20
Jun
65%
+4.5%
n=20
Jul
50%
+1.6%
n=20
Aug
40%
−1.7%
n=20
Sep
45%
+0.3%
n=20
Oct
45%
−1.9%
n=20
Nov
55%
−0.3%
n=20
Dec
65%
+4.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$55$272026-09-03: 1 insider sale, $98K — Gaffin David Joseph2026-09-01: 1 insider sale, $423K — Hopkinson Craig C.2026-08-17: 2 insider sales, $373K — Nichols Christian Todd …2026-08-03: 3 insider sales, $2.8M — snyderman nancy lynn MD, Hopkinson Craig C., Gaffin David Joseph2026-07-06: 1 insider sale, $110K — Gaffin David Joseph2026-07-01: 2 insider sales, $464K — Hopkinson Craig C. …2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $90K — Wright Christopher I2026-06-04: 1 insider sale, $88K — Gaffin David Joseph2026-06-01: 1 insider sale, $375K — Hopkinson Craig C.2026-05-29: 1 insider sale, $687K — Parisi Samuel Joseph2026-05-04: 1 insider sale, $68K — Gaffin David Joseph2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $301K — Hopkinson Craig C.2026-04-06: 1 insider sale, $70K — Gaffin David Joseph2026-04-01: 1 insider sale, $320K — Hopkinson Craig C.2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $61K — Gaffin David Joseph2026-03-02: 4 insider sales, $709K — Hopkinson Craig C., Parisi Samuel Joseph, Nichols Christian Todd, Gaffin David Joseph2026-02-02: 4 insider sales, $2.4M — Cooke Shane, Hopkinson Craig C. …2026-01-08: 1 insider sale, $150K — Hopkinson Craig C.2026-01-02: 1 insider sale, $112K — Hopkinson Craig C.2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $112K — Hopkinson Craig C.2025-12-01: 1 insider sale, $117K — Hopkinson Craig C.2025-11-03: 1 insider sale, $273K — Hopkinson Craig C.2025-10-15: 1 insider sale, $284K — Hopkinson Craig C.2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $284K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $273K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $230K2026-01: 2 open-market sales, $262K2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $2.4M2026-03: 5 open-market sales, $769K2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $390K2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $1.1M2026-06: 3 open-market sales, $553K2026-07: 3 open-market sales, $574K2026-08: 5 open-market sales, $3.1M2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $521K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Gaffin David Joseph — Sale on 2026-09-03, filed same dayofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2026-09-01, filed same dayofficer Nichols Christian Todd — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed same dayofficer Nichols Christian Todd — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed same daydirector snyderman nancy lynn MD — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed same dayofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed same dayofficer Gaffin David Joseph — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed same dayofficer Gaffin David Joseph — Sale on 2026-07-06, filed same dayofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed same dayofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed same daydirector Wright Christopher I — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed same dayofficer Gaffin David Joseph — Sale on 2026-06-04, filed same dayofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2026-06-01, filed same dayofficer Parisi Samuel Joseph — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed same dayofficer Gaffin David Joseph — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed same dayofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed same dayofficer Gaffin David Joseph — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed same dayofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2026-04-01, filed same dayofficer Gaffin David Joseph — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Parisi Samuel Joseph — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Nichols Christian Todd — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gaffin David Joseph — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Cooke Shane — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed same daydirector Cooke Shane — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed same dayofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed same dayofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed same dayofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2026-01-08, filed same dayofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed same dayofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2025-12-01, filed same dayofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed same dayofficer Hopkinson Craig C. — Sale on 2025-10-15, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03Gaffin David JosephofficerSale2,034 @ $48.01$98K−0.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open223,422Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-01Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale9,000 @ $46.99$423K−12.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open65,389Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-17Nichols Christian ToddofficerSale6,912 @ $49.19$340K−6.3% of holding−5.2%not yet — horizon still open102,857Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-17Nichols Christian ToddofficerSale664 @ $49.65$33K−0.6% of holding−5.2%not yet — horizon still open102,193Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-03snyderman nancy lynn MDdirectorSale44,472 @ $50.35$2.2M−74.3% of holding−5.2%not yet — horizon still open15,395Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-03Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale9,000 @ $48.58$437K−11.5% of holding−5.2%not yet — horizon still open69,389Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-03Gaffin David JosephofficerSale2,034 @ $48.58$99K−0.9% of holding−5.2%not yet — horizon still open225,456Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-06Gaffin David JosephofficerSale2,034 @ $54.03$110K−0.9% of holding−12.6%not yet — horizon still open227,490Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-01Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale8,300 @ $51.46$427K−10.1% of holding−5.4%not yet — horizon still open74,089Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-01Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale700 @ $52.13$36K−0.9% of holding−5.4%not yet — horizon still open73,389Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-12Wright Christopher IdirectorSale2,000 @ $45.10$90K−7.2% of holding+15.4%not yet — horizon still open25,680Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-04Gaffin David JosephofficerSale2,034 @ $43.05$88K−0.9% of holding+28.3%not yet — horizon still open229,524Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale9,000 @ $41.67$375K−10.4% of holding+23.8%not yet — horizon still open77,389Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-29Parisi Samuel JosephofficerSale16,217 @ $42.36$687K−67.8% of holding+25.2%not yet — horizon still open7,717Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-04Gaffin David JosephofficerSale2,034 @ $33.20$68K−0.9% of holding+20.1%not yet — horizon still open231,558Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-01Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale9,000 @ $33.40$301K−10.0% of holding+18.4%not yet — horizon still open81,389Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-06Gaffin David JosephofficerSale2,034 @ $34.57$70K−0.9% of holding−3.5%not yet — horizon still open233,592Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-01Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale9,000 @ $35.51$320K−9.5% of holding−14.7%not yet — horizon still open85,389Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-03Gaffin David JosephofficerSale2,034 @ $29.76$61K−0.9% of holding+23.5%+49.1%235,626Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale9,000 @ $29.72$267K−9.1% of holding+21.9%+43.0%89,389Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Parisi Samuel JosephofficerSale6,890 @ $29.29$202K−47.2% of holding+21.9%+43.0%7,717Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Nichols Christian ToddofficerSale6,000 @ $30.00$180K−5.2% of holding+21.9%+43.0%109,769Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Gaffin David JosephofficerSale2,034 @ $29.29$60K−0.8% of holding+21.9%+43.0%237,660Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02Cooke ShanedirectorSale32,113 @ $34.78$1.1M−23.6% of holding−14.8%+30.6%103,744Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-02Cooke ShanedirectorSale29,087 @ $34.34$999K−17.6% of holding−14.8%+30.6%135,857Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-02Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale5,000 @ $34.24$171K−7.5% of holding−14.8%+30.6%61,740Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-02Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale4,000 @ $33.54$134K−6.5% of holding−14.8%+30.6%57,740Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-08Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale5,000 @ $30.00$150K−7.5% of holding+17.1%+66.0%61,740Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-02Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale4,000 @ $28.00$112K−6.1% of holding+21.0%+85.4%61,740Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-03Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale3,748 @ $30.00$112K−5.4% of holding−6.0%+36.5%65,740Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale4,000 @ $29.30$117K−5.7% of holding−3.7%+36.5%65,740Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-03Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale9,000 @ $30.38$273K−11.4% of holding−2.2%+9.1%69,740Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-15Hopkinson Craig C.officerSale9,000 @ $31.53$284K−10.9% of holding−4.8%−0.2%73,740Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-10Nichols Christian ToddofficerSale3,334 @ $31.09$104K−3.7% of holding−6.2%−22.3%86,208Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-09Nichols Christian ToddofficerSale3,333 @ $31.95$106K−3.6% of holding−6.9%−20.2%89,542Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

265 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Hopkinson Craig C.officerOption exercise5,00074,389Form 4
2026-09-01Hopkinson Craig C.officerOption exercise5,00061,276Form 4
2026-08-05Jackson Blair CurtisdirectorAward / grant124,305124,305Form 4
2026-08-05Jackson Blair CurtisdirectorAward / grant93,22993,229Form 4
2026-08-03snyderman nancy lynn MDdirectorOption exercise27,94843,343Form 4
2026-08-03snyderman nancy lynn MDdirectorOption exercise16,52459,867Form 4
2026-08-03Hopkinson Craig C.officerOption exercise4,89678,389Form 4
2026-08-03Hopkinson Craig C.officerOption exercise10473,493Form 4
2026-08-03snyderman nancy lynn MDdirectorOption exercise16,5240Form 4
2026-08-03snyderman nancy lynn MDdirectorOption exercise27,9480Form 4
2026-08-03Hopkinson Craig C.officerOption exercise1041,252Form 4
2026-08-03Hopkinson Craig C.officerOption exercise4,89666,276Form 4
2026-07-01Hopkinson Craig C.officerOption exercise5,00082,389Form 4
2026-07-01Hopkinson Craig C.officerOption exercise5,0001,356Form 4
2026-06-01Hopkinson Craig C.officerOption exercise5,00086,389Form 4
2026-06-01Hopkinson Craig C.officerOption exercise5,0006,356Form 4
2026-05-29Parisi Samuel JosephofficerOption exercise12,82523,934Form 4
2026-05-29Parisi Samuel JosephofficerOption exercise3,39211,109Form 4
2026-05-29Parisi Samuel JosephofficerOption exercise12,82512,826Form 4
2026-05-29Parisi Samuel JosephofficerOption exercise3,3923,394Form 4
2026-05-21Cooke ShanedirectorWithheld for tax3,207106,679Form 4
2026-05-21Wright Christopher IdirectorWithheld for tax1,47527,680Form 4
2026-05-21LAURENCIN CATO TdirectorWithheld for tax1,47533,769Form 4
2026-05-21MCKEON BRIAN PdirectorWithheld for tax1,47538,536Form 4
2026-05-21snyderman nancy lynn MDdirectorWithheld for tax1,47515,395Form 4
2026-05-21Lurker NancydirectorWithheld for tax1,47518,222Form 4
2026-05-21GAYNOR RICHARDdirectorWithheld for tax1,47535,751Form 4
2026-05-21Wilson Frank AndersdirectorWithheld for tax1,47535,751Form 4
2026-05-21Lurker NancydirectorOption exercise6,1420Form 4
2026-05-21MCKEON BRIAN PdirectorOption exercise6,14240,011Form 4
2026-05-21MCKEON BRIAN PdirectorOption exercise6,1420Form 4
2026-05-21GAYNOR RICHARDdirectorOption exercise6,14237,226Form 4
2026-05-21GAYNOR RICHARDdirectorOption exercise6,1420Form 4
2026-05-21snyderman nancy lynn MDdirectorOption exercise6,14216,870Form 4
2026-05-21snyderman nancy lynn MDdirectorOption exercise6,1420Form 4
2026-05-21GAYNOR RICHARDdirectorOption exercise6,14237,226Form 4
2026-05-21LAURENCIN CATO TdirectorOption exercise6,14235,244Form 4
2026-05-21MCKEON BRIAN PdirectorOption exercise6,14240,011Form 4
2026-05-21LAURENCIN CATO TdirectorOption exercise6,1420Form 4
2026-05-21Lurker NancydirectorOption exercise6,14219,697Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.