ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $39.68 · now $39.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALK has typically landed between $31.81 and $47.52 — a range of −19.8% to +19.8% from the issuance price $39.68.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($39.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ALK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $39.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$31.81worst · -19.8%$47.52best · +19.8%
  • now $39.68 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $39.97 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $36.09–$43.84
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $31.81–$47.52
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−64.0%−64.0%+0.1%
2020-02-21−63.3%−64.0%+0.0%
2020-02-19−62.9%−62.9%+0.4%
3 best
2008-07-14+106.1%−1.2%+106.1%
2008-07-15+99.2%+0.0%+108.6%
2008-07-11+79.6%−8.3%+79.6%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+1.3%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.8%
n=19
Mar
53%
−3.9%
n=19
Apr
53%
−0.1%
n=19
May
58%
+0.7%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.7%
n=19
Jul
47%
+3.3%
n=19
Aug
37%
−0.2%
n=19
Sep
53%
+0.9%
n=19
Oct
61%
+3.0%
n=18
Nov
83%
+8.9%
n=18
Dec
78%
+5.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$64$342026-08-20: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — MINICUCCI BENITO2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $263K — HARRISON ANDREW R2026-02-18: 2 insider sales, $1.7M — TACKETT SHANE R, HARRISON ANDREW R2026-02-13: 1 insider sale, $795K — HARRISON ANDREW R2026-02-09: 1 insider sale, $177K — LEVINE KYLE B2026-02-05: 1 insider sale, $550K — TACKETT SHANE R2025-08-18: 1 insider sale, $342K — LEVINE KYLE B2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $285K — TACKETT SHANE R2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $627K2026-02: 5 open-market sales, $3.2M2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $1.0M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $263K↑ buys↓ salesdirector MINICUCCI BENITO — Purchase on 2026-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer HARRISON ANDREW R — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer TACKETT SHANE R — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer HARRISON ANDREW R — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer HARRISON ANDREW R — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer LEVINE KYLE B — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer TACKETT SHANE R — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer LEVINE KYLE B — Sale on 2025-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer TACKETT SHANE R — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20MINICUCCI BENITOdirectorPurchase25,000 @ $40.06$1.0M+10.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open256,582Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03HARRISON ANDREW RofficerSale5,300 @ $49.67$263K−17.2% of holding−10.6%not yet — horizon still open25,528Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18TACKETT SHANE RofficerSale24,000 @ $57.15$1.4M−35.6% of holding−28.2%−37.5%43,377Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18HARRISON ANDREW RofficerSale5,500 @ $56.63$311K−15.1% of holding−28.2%−37.5%30,828Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-13HARRISON ANDREW RofficerSale14,500 @ $54.81$795K−41.8% of holding−27.9%−37.6%20,195Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-09LEVINE KYLE BofficerSale2,945 @ $60.02$177K−12.3% of holding−28.8%−41.6%20,977Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-05TACKETT SHANE RofficerSale10,000 @ $55.00$550K−23.0% of holding−21.8%−35.2%33,530Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-18LEVINE KYLE BofficerSale5,914 @ $57.75$342K−22.0% of holding−0.6%−10.0%20,917Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13TACKETT SHANE RofficerSale5,000 @ $57.06$285K−10.3% of holding+7.8%−9.8%43,335Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-28HARRISON ANDREW RofficerSale7,600 @ $53.22$405K−28.6% of holding+9.7%−14.5%18,930Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-05HALVERSON EMILYofficerSale2,156 @ $51.37$111K−20.0% of holding−6.2%−22.7%8,612Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-05HALVERSON EMILYofficerSale790 @ $51.26$40K−8.7% of holding−6.2%−22.7%8,253Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19HARRISON ANDREW RofficerSale7,500 @ $53.51$401K−22.0% of holding−13.0%−39.6%26,530Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-07VON MUEHLEN CONSTANCE EdirectorSale33 @ $50.16$2K−3.4% of holding−2.1%−38.0%938Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20HARRISON ANDREW RofficerSale6,600 @ $76.28$503K−16.2% of holding−22.6%−31.9%34,030Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-18VON MUEHLEN CONSTANCE EdirectorSale22,157 @ $75.12$1.7M−52.5% of holding−20.9%−29.4%20,026Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10TACKETT SHANE RofficerSale22,893 @ $75.74$1.7M−41.8% of holding−21.3%−32.0%31,873Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-30SCHNEIDER ANDREA LofficerSale1,830 @ $73.32$134K−8.3% of holding−2.6%−34.4%20,286Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-29LEVINE KYLE BofficerSale2,763 @ $72.59$201K−14.2% of holding+1.4%−32.3%16,716Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-29LEVINE KYLE BofficerSale1,570 @ $72.54$114K−7.5% of holding+1.4%−32.3%19,479Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-28HARRISON ANDREW RofficerSale91,745 @ $71.14$6.5M−81.6% of holding+2.7%−30.9%20,638Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

279 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-29TACKETT SHANE RofficerAward / grant4,1004,100Form 4
2026-06-01SIEVERT G MICHAELdirectorAward / grant4,2584,258Form 4
2026-05-13Bedient Patricia MdirectorAward / grant6,48368,865Form 4
2026-05-13Shimer Peter AdirectorAward / grant5,1867,839Form 4
2026-05-13Hogan Kathleen TdirectorAward / grant5,18622,525Form 4
2026-05-13SANDVIK HELVI KAYdirectorAward / grant5,18630,755Form 4
2026-05-13YEAMAN ERIC KdirectorAward / grant5,18632,672Form 4
2026-05-13LOFTON ADRIENNE ROCHELLEdirectorAward / grant5,18617,252Form 4
2026-05-13BEER JAMES AdirectorAward / grant5,18625,490Form 4
2026-05-13Conner Raymond L.directorAward / grant5,18625,001Form 4
2026-05-13ELWELL DANIEL KEVINdirectorAward / grant2,59318,318Form 4
2026-05-13ELWELL DANIEL KEVINdirectorAward / grant2,59315,725Form 4
2026-04-01McIntyre Lindsay-RaeofficerAward / grant17,96017,960Form 4
2026-04-01McIntyre Lindsay-RaeofficerAward / grant44,90044,900Form 4
2026-03-20Berry Jason MofficerWithheld for tax27913,522Form 4
2026-03-20Berry Jason MofficerOption exercise69713,801Form 4
2026-03-20Berry Jason MofficerOption exercise6970Form 4
2026-02-13MINICUCCI BENITOdirectorWithheld for tax14,747217,418Form 4
2026-02-13MINICUCCI BENITOdirectorWithheld for tax8,556231,582Form 4
2026-02-13TACKETT SHANE RofficerWithheld for tax7,22661,245Form 4
2026-02-13HARRISON ANDREW RofficerWithheld for tax6,41030,805Form 4
2026-02-13VON MUEHLEN CONSTANCE EdirectorWithheld for tax4,95641,816Form 4
2026-02-13TACKETT SHANE RofficerWithheld for tax4,09167,377Form 4
2026-02-13HARRISON ANDREW RofficerWithheld for tax3,33736,328Form 4
2026-02-13VON MUEHLEN CONSTANCE EdirectorWithheld for tax3,33747,339Form 4
2026-02-13LEVINE KYLE BofficerWithheld for tax3,09733,953Form 4
2026-02-13SCHNEIDER ANDREA LofficerWithheld for tax2,86342,357Form 4
2026-02-13LEVINE KYLE BofficerWithheld for tax2,36437,496Form 4
2026-02-13BIRKETT RAKOW DIANAofficerWithheld for tax1,94327,082Form 4
2026-02-13SCHNEIDER ANDREA LofficerWithheld for tax1,71145,189Form 4
2026-02-13BIRKETT RAKOW DIANAofficerWithheld for tax1,63729,535Form 4
2026-02-13Berry Jason MofficerWithheld for tax1,09213,104Form 4
2026-02-13HALVERSON EMILYofficerWithheld for tax63813,655Form 4
2026-02-13Berry Jason MofficerWithheld for tax60811,469Form 4
2026-02-13HALVERSON EMILYofficerWithheld for tax59715,441Form 4
2026-02-13HARRISON ANDREW RofficerOption exercise17,02037,215Form 4
2026-02-13HARRISON ANDREW RofficerOption exercise17,0200Form 4
2026-02-13HARRISON ANDREW RofficerOption exercise8,8608,860Form 4
2026-02-13HARRISON ANDREW RofficerOption exercise8,86039,665Form 4
2026-02-13SCHNEIDER ANDREA LofficerOption exercise7,60045,220Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-11-142025-10-22$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-12-052024-11-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-12-052024-11-12$1–15K
Earl BlumenauerHousesale2024-01-042023-12-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-12-062023-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-11-082023-10-31$1–15K
Earl BlumenauerHousepurchase2022-10-052022-09-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2022-06-102022-05-23$1–15K
Earl BlumenauerHousesale2022-04-012022-03-14$1–15K
Earl BlumenauerHousepurchase2022-04-012022-02-24$1–15K
Victoria SpartzHousesale2021-06-202021-05-17$250–500K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.