ALITAlight, Inc.Technology · Information Technology Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.90 · now $11.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALIT has typically landed between $8.96 and $14.04 — a range of −24.7% to +18.0% from the issuance price $11.90.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,285 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-07-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ALIT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$8.96worst · -24.7%$14.04best · +18.0%
  • now $11.9 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.5 (-3.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.51–$12.49
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.96–$14.04
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,285 windows spanning 2021-07-06 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-01-22−53.6%−53.6%+4.5%
2026-01-21−51.7%−51.7%+3.8%
2026-02-18−49.0%−49.0%+0.0%
3 best
2026-06-29+84.6%+0.0%+99.6%
2026-04-07+84.1%−3.6%+84.1%
2026-04-09+81.3%+0.0%+81.4%

1,285 overlapping windows · 2021-07-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
−3.3%
n=5
Feb
60%
−6.3%
n=5
Mar
20%
−9.2%
n=5
Apr
40%
+1.3%
n=5
May
40%
−1.4%
n=5
Jun
40%
−9.8%
n=5
Jul
80%
+13.3%
n=5
Aug
33%
−7.6%
n=6
Sep
17%
−7.1%
n=6
Oct
20%
−3.3%
n=5
Nov
60%
+2.1%
n=5
Dec
40%
−3.0%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$77$102026-03-16: 1 insider purchase, $25K — Lopes Robert A. Jr.2026-03-12: 1 insider purchase, $100K — Verma Rohit2026-02-24: 1 insider purchase, $77K — Verma Rohit2025-12-15: 1 insider purchase, $780 — Rajgopal Kausik2025-12-02: 1 insider purchase, $2K — Rushing Coretha M2025-11-26: 3 insider purchases, $357K — Massey Richard N, SCHRIESHEIM ROBERT A, Lopes Robert A. Jr.2025-11-25: 1 insider purchase, $90K — Rajgopal Kausik2025-08: 2 open-market purchases, $22K2025-11: 4 open-market purchases, $446K2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $3K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $77K2026-03: 2 open-market purchases, $124K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Lopes Robert A. Jr. — Purchase on 2026-03-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Verma Rohit — Purchase on 2026-03-12, filed same daydirector Verma Rohit — Purchase on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Rajgopal Kausik — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 218 days after the tradedirector Rushing Coretha M — Purchase on 2025-12-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Massey Richard N — Purchase on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector SCHRIESHEIM ROBERT A — Purchase on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Lopes Robert A. Jr. — Purchase on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Rajgopal Kausik — Purchase on 2025-11-25, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-16Lopes Robert A. Jr.directorPurchase30,000 @ $0.82$25K+34.4% of holding−23.0%−38.6%117,219Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-12Verma RohitdirectorPurchase112,000 @ $0.89$100K+10.9% of holding−35.3%−49.5%1,134,883Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-24Verma RohitdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $0.77$77K+10.8% of holding−25.7%−14.6%1,022,883Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-15Rajgopal KausikdirectorPurchase38 @ $20.53$780+0.2% of holding−24.8%−80.6%20,322Form 4 · filed 218 days after the trade
2025-12-02Rushing Coretha MdirectorPurchase1,018 @ $2.25$2K+1.4% of holding−16.2%−78.5%73,720Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-26Massey Richard NdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $2.33$233Kownership Δ n/a−16.8%−70.8%100,000Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-26SCHRIESHEIM ROBERT AdirectorPurchase42,098 @ $2.38$100K+62.8% of holding−16.8%−70.8%109,130Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-26Lopes Robert A. Jr.directorPurchase10,000 @ $2.39$24K+14.3% of holding−16.8%−70.8%80,168Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-25Rajgopal KausikdirectorPurchase40,000 @ $2.24$90K+46.9% of holding−13.1%−69.9%125,202Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-07Lopes Robert A. Jr.directorPurchase2,000 @ $4.40$9K+3.1% of holding−7.7%−68.6%65,951Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-06Lopes Robert A. Jr.directorPurchase3,000 @ $4.40$13K+4.9% of holding−14.3%−71.0%63,951Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16SCHRIESHEIM ROBERT AdirectorPurchase216 @ $5.26$1K+0.7% of holding+1.6%−73.4%33,249Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2025-05-20Guilmette David DdirectorPurchase50,000 @ $5.69$285K+9.1% of holding−4.8%−75.6%600,750Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-13Lopes Robert A. Jr.directorPurchase3,000 @ $6.25$19K+14.3% of holding−13.2%−56.5%23,941Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-10Massey Richard NdirectorPurchase100,000 @ $6.39$639K+6.8% of holding−12.7%−55.4%1,573,489Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03SCHRIESHEIM ROBERT AdirectorPurchase22,092 @ $6.79$150Kownership Δ n/a−7.9%−49.5%22,092Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

174 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03Felli MartinofficerWithheld for tax24428,324Form 4
2026-08-15Dorsey DonnadirectorWithheld for tax3,83347,458Form 4
2026-08-03Lasher Stephen AndrewofficerAward / grant87,50087,500Form 4
2026-08-03Dorsey DonnadirectorAward / grant12,50075,000Form 4
2026-08-03Tulsiani Dinesh VofficerAward / grant25,00087,500Form 4
2026-08-03Felli MartinofficerAward / grant12,50075,000Form 4
2026-08-03Baweja NaveenofficerAward / grant12,50075,000Form 4
2026-08-03Verma RohitdirectorAward / grant80,000430,000Form 4
2026-07-02Hayes Michael EdirectorAward / grant14,02516,261Form 4
2026-07-02Nolan Mangini SiobhandirectorAward / grant14,02517,153Form 4
2026-07-02Rajgopal KausikdirectorAward / grant14,02520,284Form 4
2026-07-02FOLEY WILLIAM P IIdirectorAward / grant14,02564,670Form 4
2026-07-02SCHRIESHEIM ROBERT AdirectorAward / grant14,02519,481Form 4
2026-07-02Massey Richard NdirectorAward / grant14,02596,016Form 4
2026-07-02Lopes Robert A. Jr.directorAward / grant14,02522,292Form 4
2026-07-02Rushing Coretha MdirectorAward / grant14,02520,344Form 4
2026-07-02Williams Lenore DdirectorAward / grant14,02524,874Form 4
2026-07-02FRADIN RUSSELL PdirectorAward / grant21,03739,839Form 4
2026-06-30FRADIN RUSSELL PdirectorAward / grant4,46418,802Form 4
2026-06-30Williams Lenore DdirectorAward / grant2,45510,849Form 4
2026-06-30FOLEY WILLIAM P IIdirectorAward / grant1,59050,645Form 4
2026-06-30Lopes Robert A. Jr.directorAward / grant1,2278,267Form 4
2026-06-30Rushing Coretha MdirectorAward / grant1,1716,319Form 4
2026-06-15Lasher Stephen AndrewofficerAward / grant3,021,6043,021,604Form 4
2026-06-15Lasher Stephen AndrewofficerAward / grant1,888,5024,910,106Form 4
2026-05-01Tulsiani Dinesh VofficerAward / grant1,598,6692,373,318Form 4
2026-05-01Tulsiani Dinesh VofficerAward / grant1,250,0001,250,000Form 4
2026-04-29Baweja NaveenofficerAward / grant733,235733,235Form 4
2026-04-29Baweja NaveenofficerAward / grant1,250,0001,250,000Form 4
2026-04-29Baweja NaveenofficerAward / grant499,9331,233,168Form 4
2026-03-31FRADIN RUSSELL PdirectorAward / grant85,807286,776Form 4
2026-03-31Williams Lenore DdirectorAward / grant47,194167,892Form 4
2026-03-31FOLEY WILLIAM P IIdirectorAward / grant30,568981,113Form 4
2026-03-31Lopes Robert A. Jr.directorAward / grant23,597140,816Form 4
2026-03-31Rushing Coretha MdirectorAward / grant22,524102,974Form 4
2026-03-25Rush Stephen D.officerAward / grant3,750,0003,750,000Form 4
2026-03-25Dorsey DonnadirectorAward / grant1,250,0001,250,000Form 4
2026-03-25Duggirala DeepikaofficerAward / grant1,875,0001,875,000Form 4
2026-03-25Felli MartinofficerAward / grant1,250,0001,250,000Form 4
2026-03-25Verma RohitdirectorAward / grant7,000,0007,000,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.