Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.71 · now $8.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALHC has typically landed between $6.40 and $11.40 — a range of −26.5% to +30.9% from the issuance price $8.71.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,354 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-03-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ALHC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.71 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.81 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.64–$9.99
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.4–$11.4
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,354 windows spanning 2021-03-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-12-28 | −54.3% | −54.3% | +0.1% |
| 2021-12-29 | −52.9% | −53.7% | +1.4% |
| 2021-12-27 | −50.4% | −50.4% | +0.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-06-01 | +80.5% | +0.0% | +80.5% |
| 2026-06-02 | +74.5% | +0.0% | +76.0% |
| 2026-06-03 | +72.4% | +0.0% | +72.4% |
1,354 overlapping windows · 2021-03-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
−2.4%
n=5
Feb
40%
−6.3%
n=5
Mar
40%
−2.0%
n=5
Apr
50%
+5.4%
n=6
May
33%
+1.2%
n=6
Jun
33%
+7.2%
n=6
Jul
50%
−0.3%
n=6
Aug
50%
−0.9%
n=6
Sep
50%
−1.7%
n=6
Oct
60%
+7.4%
n=5
Nov
80%
+1.3%
n=5
Dec
40%
−3.6%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 27,400 @ $13.00 | $356K | −4.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 590,766 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 385,270 @ $12.68 | $4.9M | −23.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,223,473 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-11 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 122,707 @ $12.68 | $1.6M | −13.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 794,606 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-10 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 172,600 @ $12.96 | $2.2M | −21.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 618,166 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $14.00 | $70K | −0.5% of holding | −23.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 917,313 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 298,000 @ $13.88 | $4.1M | −27.4% of holding | −4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 790,766 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-15 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 177,068 @ $20.83 | $3.7M | −16.1% of holding | −38.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 922,313 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 279,644 @ $19.81 | $5.5M | −20.2% of holding | −32.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,107,122 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-10 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 18,356 @ $20.65 | $379K | −1.7% of holding | −32.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,088,766 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | KONOWIECKI JOSEPH S | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $24.00 | $600K | −2.2% of holding | −38.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,103,816 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-26 | KONOWIECKI JOSEPH S | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $23.00 | $575K | −2.2% of holding | −22.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,128,816 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-18 | KONOWIECKI JOSEPH S | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $22.00 | $550K | −2.1% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,153,816 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $19.55 | $586K | −3.1% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 947,313 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Kim Hyong | officer | Sale | 35,951 @ $19.86 | $714K | −9.8% of holding | +4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 331,750 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | KONOWIECKI JOSEPH S | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $21.00 | $525K | −2.1% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,178,816 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 223,064 @ $20.60 | $4.6M | −13.9% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,386,766 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 74,936 @ $19.65 | $1.5M | −4.4% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,609,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Kent Mark D. | officer | Purchase | 14,848 @ $13.31 | $198K | ownership Δ n/a | +76.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,848 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-15 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $16.09 | $483K | −2.9% of holding | +29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 998,813 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $20.87 | $626K | −2.8% of holding | −27.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,028,813 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-13 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 82,299 @ $20.80 | $1.7M | −4.4% of holding | −20.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,806,641 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-10 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 201,900 @ $20.58 | $4.2M | −9.6% of holding | −25.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,902,741 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 13,801 @ $21.38 | $295K | −0.7% of holding | −25.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,888,940 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 132,241 @ $20.67 | $2.7M | −5.6% of holding | −27.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,222,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 117,759 @ $21.40 | $2.5M | −5.3% of holding | −27.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,104,641 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Head James M | director | Sale | 11,100 @ $21.08 | $234K | −6.0% of holding | −27.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 173,495 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | JOYCE CHRISTOPHER J | officer | Sale | 18,013 @ $17.79 | $320K | −5.6% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 305,451 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-23 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 118,000 @ $17.48 | $2.1M | −4.8% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,354,641 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Wagner Andreas P. | officer | Sale | 11,602 @ $18.22 | $211K | −7.2% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 148,628 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 73,046 @ $17.84 | $1.3M | −3.9% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,784,868 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 36,749 @ $17.84 | $656K | −3.4% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,058,813 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | JOYCE CHRISTOPHER J | officer | Sale | 25,125 @ $17.84 | $448K | −7.2% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 323,464 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Kim Hyong | officer | Sale | 18,404 @ $17.84 | $328K | −4.8% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 367,701 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Burzacchi Sebastian | officer | Sale | 15,361 @ $17.84 | $274K | −5.6% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 258,630 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Wagner Andreas P. | officer | Sale | 12,000 @ $17.84 | $214K | −7.0% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,230 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Scavo Robert L. | officer | Sale | 11,285 @ $17.84 | $201K | −2.3% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 487,685 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $17.48 | $524K | −2.7% of holding | +14.6% | −54.6% | 1,095,562 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 45,938 @ $17.48 | $803K | −2.9% of holding | +19.3% | −41.7% | 1,522,441 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 27,350 @ $17.48 | $478K | −2.8% of holding | +19.3% | −41.7% | 965,465 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Scavo Robert L. | officer | Sale | 3,799 @ $17.48 | $66K | −0.8% of holding | +19.3% | −41.7% | 499,215 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 2,961 @ $16.99 | $50K | −0.2% of holding | +19.3% | −41.7% | 1,519,480 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 1,763 @ $16.99 | $30K | −0.2% of holding | +19.3% | −41.7% | 963,702 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Scavo Robert L. | officer | Sale | 245 @ $16.99 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +19.3% | −41.7% | 498,970 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 180,000 @ $18.19 | $3.3M | −6.8% of holding | +17.4% | −41.2% | 2,472,641 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | Wagner Andreas P. | officer | Sale | 21,118 @ $18.62 | $393K | −12.4% of holding | +3.4% | −40.3% | 148,687 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-17 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $20.63 | $619K | −2.9% of holding | −8.5% | −48.7% | 997,015 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-10 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 180,000 @ $20.49 | $3.7M | −6.4% of holding | −13.2% | −46.7% | 2,652,641 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-10 | Wagner Andreas P. | officer | Sale | 22,238 @ $20.47 | $455K | −11.6% of holding | −13.2% | −46.7% | 169,805 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-15 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 14,871 @ $22.78 | $339K | −1.4% of holding | −7.1% | −14.0% | 1,027,015 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 15,129 @ $22.19 | $336K | −1.4% of holding | −7.1% | −14.0% | 1,041,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 177,273 @ $21.10 | $3.7M | −5.9% of holding | −3.7% | −10.8% | 2,835,368 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 2,727 @ $21.57 | $59K | −0.1% of holding | −3.7% | −10.8% | 2,832,641 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 228,152 @ $21.33 | $4.9M | −17.8% of holding | +1.3% | −10.5% | 1,057,015 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-06 | Kim Hyong | officer | Sale | 16,506 @ $21.35 | $352K | −4.7% of holding | +1.3% | −10.5% | 333,133 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $20.03 | $2.0M | −7.2% of holding | +12.3% | +8.9% | 1,285,167 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | JOYCE CHRISTOPHER J | officer | Sale | 10,611 @ $20.03 | $213K | −3.4% of holding | +12.3% | +8.9% | 297,088 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 572,437 @ $18.71 | $10.7M | −20.2% of holding | +17.9% | +17.8% | 2,267,505 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Sale | 266,603 @ $18.71 | $5.0M | −16.0% of holding | +17.9% | +17.8% | 1,400,634 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Scavo Robert L. | officer | Sale | 65,728 @ $18.71 | $1.2M | −11.5% of holding | +17.9% | +17.8% | 506,827 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | KAO JOHN E | director | Sale | 33,211 @ $19.38 | $644K | −1.5% of holding | +17.9% | +17.8% | 2,234,294 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
56 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Option exercise | 152,068 | 1,099,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Option exercise | 152,068 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Hochradel Shane J. | officer | Award / grant | 87,719 | 87,719 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | KONOWIECKI JOSEPH S | director | Award / grant | 122,807 | 1,203,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Kent Mark D. | officer | Award / grant | 87,719 | 102,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Gift | 20,000 | 977,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Gift | 1,500 | 997,313 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | KAO JOHN E | director | Award / grant | 338,434 | 1,857,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | HODGSON DAVID C | director | Award / grant | 18,982 | 173,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Head James M | director | Award / grant | 103,002 | 184,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | JORDEN YON | director | Award / grant | 13,096 | 105,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | JOYCE CHRISTOPHER J | officer | Award / grant | 51,501 | 348,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | KONOWIECKI JOSEPH S | director | Award / grant | 24,868 | 1,081,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | KOSECOFF JACQUELINE B | director | Award / grant | 13,096 | 303,963 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Kim Hyong | officer | Award / grant | 52,972 | 386,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | BILNEY JODY L | director | Award / grant | 16,039 | 129,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Vorhoff Nicholas Robbert | director | Award / grant | 18,982 | 173,408 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Wagner Andreas P. | officer | Award / grant | 23,543 | 172,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Burzacchi Sebastian | officer | Award / grant | 36,198 | 273,991 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Award / grant | 161,860 | 1,125,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | McCarthy Margaret M | director | Award / grant | 14,273 | 144,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | McClellan Mark B. | director | Award / grant | 13,096 | 370,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Mansour Adnan R. | officer | Award / grant | 25,015 | 48,456 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Gift | 4,200 | 992,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-23 | Mansour Adnan R. | officer | Award / grant | 23,441 | 23,441 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Head James M | director | Award / grant | 81,593 | 81,593 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | KONOWIECKI JOSEPH S | director | Award / grant | 12,903 | 1,177,049 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | McCarthy Margaret M | director | Award / grant | 1,290 | 130,168 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | McCarthy Margaret M | director | Award / grant | 12,258 | 128,878 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | Maroney Dawn Christine | officer | Award / grant | 170,968 | 2,447,700 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | HODGSON DAVID C | director | Award / grant | 18,710 | 154,426 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | McClellan Mark B. | director | Award / grant | 12,258 | 357,435 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | Kim Hyong | officer | Award / grant | 58,065 | 544,367 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | JORDEN YON | director | Award / grant | 12,258 | 92,734 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | JOYCE CHRISTOPHER J | officer | Award / grant | 70,789 | 457,763 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | BILNEY JODY L | director | Award / grant | 15,484 | 113,228 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | KOSECOFF JACQUELINE B | director | Award / grant | 12,258 | 290,867 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | Vorhoff Nicholas Robbert | director | Award / grant | 18,710 | 154,426 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | KONOWIECKI JOSEPH S | director | Award / grant | 12,258 | 1,147,146 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | Burzacchi Sebastian | officer | Award / grant | 39,677 | 257,072 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.