Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.55 · now $21.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALH has typically landed between $17.76 and $24.58 — a range of −17.6% to +14.0% from the issuance price $21.55.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
214 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-10-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ALH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $21.55 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.52 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.98–$23.07
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.76–$24.58
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-02-10 | −21.0% | −21.0% | +0.1% |
| 2026-08-07 | −19.9% | −19.9% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-11 | −19.7% | −19.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-19 | +35.1% | −0.7% | +35.1% |
| 2026-03-20 | +33.4% | +0.0% | +36.1% |
| 2026-03-12 | +30.6% | +0.0% | +30.6% |
214 overlapping windows · 2025-10-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Vleugels Jan Gommaar M. | officer | Sale | 75,000 @ $21.05 | $1.6M | −16.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 374,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | BDT CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC | director | Sale | 25,932,500 @ $22.74 | $589.6M | −18.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,832,842 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Vleugels Jan Gommaar M. | officer | Sale | 75,000 @ $24.75 | $1.9M | −14.3% of holding | −10.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 449,563 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Nolden Dean J | officer | Sale | 15,400 @ $28.05 | $432K | −51.2% of holding | −19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,662 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Nolden Dean J | officer | Sale | 4,600 @ $28.05 | $129K | −23.9% of holding | −18.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,662 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Hannan Samantha Leigh | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $26.80 | $161K | −2.1% of holding | −16.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 286,066 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-28 | Kopetsky Amanda Brooke | officer | Sale | 13,472 @ $27.00 | $364K | −64.8% of holding | −14.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,331 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Vleugels Jan Gommaar M. | officer | Sale | 75,000 @ $25.40 | $1.9M | −12.5% of holding | −1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 524,563 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Hannan Samantha Leigh | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $26.27 | $158K | −2.0% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 292,066 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Kopetsky Amanda Brooke | officer | Sale | 12,747 @ $27.04 | $345K | −63.5% of holding | −7.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,331 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Kopetsky Amanda Brooke | officer | Sale | 809 @ $27.00 | $22K | −9.9% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,331 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Sikora Brian Christopher | officer | Sale | 17,500 @ $26.15 | $458K | −55.6% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,951 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Vleugels Jan Gommaar M. | officer | Sale | 75,000 @ $25.64 | $1.9M | −11.1% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 599,563 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Hannan Samantha Leigh | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $25.66 | $154K | −2.0% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 298,066 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | BDT CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC | director | Sale | 18,804,877 @ $22.00 | $413.7M | −11.8% of holding | +6.4% | −2.5% | 140,751,696 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Nayak Narasimha K. | director | Purchase | 4,545 @ $22.00 | $100K | ownership Δ n/a | +6.4% | −2.5% | 4,545 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
54 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Ashurst Gary Robert | officer | Award / grant | 10,476 | 10,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Schoeb Michael Donald | director | Disposition | 13,938 | 3,311,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Schoeb Michael Donald | director | Disposition | 83,286 | 3,325,115 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Nolden Dean J | officer | Option exercise | 15,400 | 30,062 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Nolden Dean J | officer | Option exercise | 15,400 | 180,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Schoeb Michael Donald | director | Disposition | 27,961 | 3,408,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Nolden Dean J | officer | Option exercise | 4,600 | 19,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Nolden Dean J | officer | Option exercise | 4,600 | 196,082 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Kopetsky Amanda Brooke | officer | Option exercise | 13,472 | 20,803 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Kopetsky Amanda Brooke | officer | Option exercise | 13,472 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Kopetsky Amanda Brooke | officer | Option exercise | 12,747 | 20,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | Kopetsky Amanda Brooke | officer | Option exercise | 12,747 | 13,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Kopetsky Amanda Brooke | officer | Option exercise | 809 | 8,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Kopetsky Amanda Brooke | officer | Option exercise | 809 | 26,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Sikora Brian Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 17,500 | 31,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Sikora Brian Christopher | officer | Option exercise | 17,500 | 30,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hodges Amanda Lillian | director | Award / grant | 6,374 | 13,646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Nayak Narasimha K. | director | Award / grant | 6,374 | 18,191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | BDT CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC | director | Award / grant | 6,374 | 140,765,342 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | KNIGHT PHYLLIS A | director | Award / grant | 6,374 | 13,646 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | FITZGERALD TIMOTHY JOHN | director | Award / grant | 6,374 | 500,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Anderson Clyde Barbour | director | Award / grant | 6,374 | 180,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Sikora Brian Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 3,270 | 13,951 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Mancuso Michael Gaetano | officer | Award / grant | 8,798 | 8,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Nolden Dean J | officer | Award / grant | 14,662 | 14,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Vleugels Jan Gommaar M. | officer | Award / grant | 8,798 | 674,563 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Hainline Joseph Weedon III | officer | Award / grant | 8,798 | 8,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Hannan Samantha Leigh | officer | Award / grant | 7,331 | 311,397 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Sikora Brian Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 2,933 | 10,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Kopetsky Amanda Brooke | officer | Award / grant | 7,331 | 7,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Schoeb Michael Donald | director | Award / grant | 86,510 | 3,436,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Hannan Samantha Leigh | officer | Withheld for tax | 140,397 | 118,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Hannan Samantha Leigh | officer | Withheld for tax | 140,397 | 237,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Hannan Samantha Leigh | officer | Option exercise | 259,336 | 259,336 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Hannan Samantha Leigh | officer | Option exercise | 259,336 | 378,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Hannan Samantha Leigh | officer | Withheld for tax | 49,531 | 281,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Hannan Samantha Leigh | officer | Option exercise | 93,603 | 331,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Hannan Samantha Leigh | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,790 | 294,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Hannan Samantha Leigh | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,919 | 304,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-19 | Hannan Samantha Leigh | officer | Option exercise | 31,117 | 313,067 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.