ALGTAllegiant Travel CompanyIndustrials · Airlines, Airports & Air Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $78.64 · now $78.64 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALGT has typically landed between $60.37 and $99.75 — a range of −23.2% to +26.8% from the issuance price $78.64.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,951 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-12-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($78.64) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ALGT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $78.64 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$60.37worst · -23.2%$99.75best · +26.8%
  • now $78.64 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $77.27 (-1.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $67.81–$86.73
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $60.37–$99.75
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,951 windows spanning 2006-12-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−57.7%−57.7%+0.0%
2020-02-19−55.8%−55.8%+0.0%
2020-02-21−55.7%−57.5%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-07+102.0%+0.0%+102.0%
2020-05-06+87.2%−0.1%+89.8%
2020-05-05+82.5%−4.0%+82.5%

4,951 overlapping windows · 2006-12-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+2.9%
n=20
Feb
60%
+0.7%
n=20
Mar
50%
−1.4%
n=20
Apr
45%
−2.5%
n=20
May
40%
+0.4%
n=20
Jun
50%
+1.3%
n=20
Jul
45%
+0.3%
n=20
Aug
40%
−2.5%
n=20
Sep
60%
+1.8%
n=20
Oct
68%
+4.6%
n=19
Nov
84%
+8.7%
n=19
Dec
63%
+2.7%
n=19

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$119$562026-02-10: 2 insider sales, $2.2M — GALLAGHER MAURICE J JR …2026-02-09: 3 insider sales, $12.1M — GALLAGHER MAURICE J JR …2026-02-06: 2 insider sales, $20.0M — GALLAGHER MAURICE J JR …2025-10-28: 1 insider sale, $23K — Morgan Sandra Douglass2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $98K2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $23K2026-02: 7 open-market sales, $34.4M↑ buys↓ salesdirector GALLAGHER MAURICE J JR — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed same daydirector GALLAGHER MAURICE J JR — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed same daydirector GALLAGHER MAURICE J JR — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GALLAGHER MAURICE J JR — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GALLAGHER MAURICE J JR — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 1 day after the tradedirector GALLAGHER MAURICE J JR — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector GALLAGHER MAURICE J JR — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Morgan Sandra Douglass — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-02-10GALLAGHER MAURICE J JRdirectorSale18,757 @ $113.52$2.1M−1.0% of holding−28.8%−38.4%1,887,348Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-10GALLAGHER MAURICE J JRdirectorSale861 @ $114.00$98K−0.6% of holding−28.8%−38.4%150,000Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-09GALLAGHER MAURICE J JRdirectorSale56,243 @ $114.81$6.5M−2.9% of holding−25.4%−34.1%1,906,105Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-09GALLAGHER MAURICE J JRdirectorSale25,000 @ $116.19$2.9M−12.5% of holding−25.4%−34.1%175,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-09GALLAGHER MAURICE J JRdirectorSale24,139 @ $114.79$2.8M−13.8% of holding−25.4%−34.1%150,861Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06GALLAGHER MAURICE J JRdirectorSale100,000 @ $113.67$11.4M−4.7% of holding−25.1%−34.5%2,037,348Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06GALLAGHER MAURICE J JRdirectorSale75,000 @ $114.99$8.6M−3.7% of holding−25.1%−34.5%1,962,348Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-28Morgan Sandra DouglassdirectorSale350 @ $65.00$23K−3.1% of holding+23.6%+14.3%10,950Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-11ELLMER GARYdirectorSale2,000 @ $49.00$98K−26.7% of holding+25.8%+123.7%5,490Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-29Morgan Sandra DouglassdirectorSale350 @ $45.70$16K−3.0% of holding+13.1%+11.2%11,300Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-07Wilper Keny FrankofficerSale278 @ $41.41$12K−1.7% of holding+0.3%+1.9%15,918Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

40 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Neal Robert JamesofficerWithheld for tax26035,989Form 4
2026-08-04Wells Drew AllenofficerWithheld for tax26035,191Form 4
2026-08-04Aretos RebeccaofficerWithheld for tax22010,668Form 4
2026-08-04Hollingsworth Tyler JayofficerWithheld for tax19520,096Form 4
2026-05-15Anderson Gregory ClarkdirectorAward / grant20,026125,681Form 4
2026-05-13Bricker JudedirectorWithheld for tax40,43751,606Form 4
2026-05-13Kennedy Thomas CdirectorAward / grant1,0006,894Form 4
2026-05-13VOGEL JENNIFER LdirectorAward / grant1,00010,277Form 4
2026-05-13Bricker JudedirectorAward / grant1,00052,606Form 4
2026-04-12Hollingsworth Tyler JayofficerWithheld for tax8720,291Form 4
2026-04-03Wells Drew AllenofficerWithheld for tax17935,192Form 4
2026-04-03Neal Robert JamesofficerWithheld for tax17936,249Form 4
2026-04-01Anderson Gregory ClarkdirectorWithheld for tax4,832105,655Form 4
2026-02-18Aretos RebeccaofficerAward / grant1,82210,888Form 4
2026-02-06Anderson Gregory ClarkdirectorAward / grant1,948110,488Form 4
2026-02-06Hollingsworth Tyler JayofficerAward / grant6,81220,509Form 4
2026-02-06Wells Drew AllenofficerAward / grant9,76035,383Form 4
2026-02-06Neal Robert JamesofficerAward / grant10,43736,437Form 4
2025-10-20Aretos RebeccaofficerWithheld for tax4509,066Form 4
2025-10-20Neal Robert JamesofficerWithheld for tax40326,000Form 4
2025-10-20Hollingsworth Tyler JayofficerWithheld for tax36113,697Form 4
2025-10-20Wells Drew AllenofficerWithheld for tax35525,309Form 4
2025-10-01Anderson Gregory ClarkdirectorWithheld for tax4,832108,540Form 4
2025-09-23Richins Micah JohnofficerWithheld for tax3,38318,366Form 4
2025-09-23Neal Robert JamesofficerWithheld for tax72626,403Form 4
2025-09-23Wells Drew AllenofficerWithheld for tax72625,664Form 4
2025-09-23Aretos RebeccaofficerWithheld for tax4059,516Form 4
2025-09-23Hollingsworth Tyler JayofficerWithheld for tax33014,058Form 4
2025-08-04Richins Micah JohnofficerWithheld for tax34321,749Form 4
2025-08-04Wells Drew AllenofficerWithheld for tax26026,390Form 4
2025-08-04Neal Robert JamesofficerWithheld for tax26027,129Form 4
2025-08-04Aretos RebeccaofficerWithheld for tax2209,921Form 4
2025-08-04Hollingsworth Tyler JayofficerWithheld for tax19514,388Form 4
2025-08-01Anderson Gregory ClarkdirectorWithheld for tax1,813113,372Form 4
2025-04-03Wells Drew AllenofficerWithheld for tax17926,336Form 4
2025-04-03Wilper Keny FrankofficerWithheld for tax17916,196Form 4
2025-04-03Richins Micah JohnofficerWithheld for tax11019,849Form 4
2025-04-01Anderson Gregory ClarkdirectorWithheld for tax4,857115,185Form 4
2025-02-10Richins Micah JohnofficerWithheld for tax31519,959Form 4
2024-02-10Richins Micah JohnofficerAward / grant2,24313,894Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.