Issued 2026-09-16 at $150.45 · now $150.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALGN has typically landed between $120.50 and $177.80 — a range of −19.9% to +18.2% from the issuance price $150.45.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($150.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ALGN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $150.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $150.45 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $148.14 (-1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $134.62–$161.65
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $120.5–$177.8
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-24 | −54.9% | −54.9% | +1.3% |
| 2008-09-16 | −54.1% | −54.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-23 | −53.0% | −53.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-01-03 | +69.5% | +0.0% | +69.5% |
| 2009-03-31 | +56.5% | −1.4% | +57.1% |
| 2023-01-06 | +56.3% | +0.0% | +63.0% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$87.41
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$163.54
- Analyst target · range $188.00–$235.00$200.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$150.45
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-18 | Morici John | officer | Sale | 7,969 @ $189.31 | $1.5M | −49.2% of holding | −3.8% | −27.2% | 8,237 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | HOGAN JOSEPH M | director | Purchase | 7,576 @ $131.49 | $996K | +4.3% of holding | −2.5% | +7.4% | 184,945 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-31 | Coletti Julie Ann | officer | Purchase | 42 @ $109.66 | $5K | +0.6% of holding | +8.0% | +16.3% | 7,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
128 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Blackford Quentin S. | director | Award / grant | 1,376 | 1,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Dallas Kevin J | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 16,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Dallas Kevin J | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Conroy Kevin T | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | MORROW GEORGE J | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 5,036 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | MORROW GEORGE J | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Conroy Kevin T | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 3,553 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Conroy Kevin T | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 1,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Dallas Kevin J | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 1,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | LACOB JOSEPH | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 135,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | LACOB JOSEPH | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | LACOB JOSEPH | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 1,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | LARKIN C RAYMOND JR | director | Option exercise | 2,326 | 27,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | LARKIN C RAYMOND JR | director | Option exercise | 2,326 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | LARKIN C RAYMOND JR | director | Award / grant | 2,448 | 2,448 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Myong Anne | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 9,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Myong Anne | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Myong Anne | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 1,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Poul Mojdeh | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 3,553 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Poul Mojdeh | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Poul Mojdeh | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 1,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Saia Andrea Lynn | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 17,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Saia Andrea Lynn | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Saia Andrea Lynn | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 1,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SIEGEL SUSAN E | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 10,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SIEGEL SUSAN E | director | Option exercise | 1,745 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SIEGEL SUSAN E | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 1,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Vitalone Britt J. | director | Option exercise | 1,443 | 1,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Vitalone Britt J. | director | Option exercise | 1,443 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Vitalone Britt J. | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 1,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | HOGAN JOSEPH M | director | Withheld for tax | 16,107 | 209,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Morici John | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,549 | 13,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Coletti Julie Ann | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,718 | 11,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Hockridge Stuart A | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,210 | 14,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Coletti Julie Ann | officer | Option exercise | 538 | 538 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Morici John | officer | Option exercise | 1,251 | 3,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Morici John | officer | Option exercise | 389 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Morici John | officer | Option exercise | 4,653 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Morici John | officer | Option exercise | 718 | 718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Morici John | officer | Option exercise | 7,848 | 16,085 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-10-22 | 2025-09-11 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-06 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | purchase | 2025-03-27 | 2025-02-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-19 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-26 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.