ALGAlamo Group Inc.Industrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $168.42 · now $168.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALG has typically landed between $148.57 and $191.90 — a range of −11.8% to +13.9% from the issuance price $168.42.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($168.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ALG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $168.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$148.57worst · -11.8%$191.9best · +13.9%
  • now $168.42 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $169.75 (+0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $159.57–$179.92
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $148.57–$191.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−41.1%−41.1%+1.1%
2020-02-21−40.6%−41.7%+0.0%
2020-02-18−40.1%−40.1%+0.0%
3 best
2009-07-02+42.4%+0.0%+42.4%
2008-12-03+42.0%−5.5%+42.0%
2009-03-11+39.0%+0.0%+40.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+0.9%
n=20
Feb
40%
+1.7%
n=20
Mar
70%
+2.4%
n=20
Apr
60%
+2.2%
n=20
May
35%
−1.7%
n=20
Jun
45%
+0.1%
n=20
Jul
70%
+3.2%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.0%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.9%
n=20
Oct
40%
−0.9%
n=20
Nov
65%
+6.6%
n=20
Dec
60%
+2.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$231$1472026-09-04: 1 insider sale, $443K — Rizzuti Edward2026-08-13: 1 insider sale, $446K — Rizzuti Edward2026-03-24: 1 insider sale, $103K — Rizzuti Edward2026-03-24: 1 insider purchase, $40K — Grooms Nina C2026-03-11: 1 insider sale, $87K — Grooms Nina C2026-03-09: 1 insider purchase, $76K — Hureau Robert Paul2025-11-26: 2 insider purchases, $50K — Hureau Robert Paul …2025-11-14: 1 insider purchase, $25K — Hureau Robert Paul2025-11-13: 1 insider purchase, $101K — Hureau Robert Paul2025-08-22: 2 insider sales, $555K — Leonard Jeffery Allen …2025-08-21: 2 insider sales, $621K — Rizzuti Edward …2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $1.2M2025-11: 4 open-market purchases, $175K2026-03: 2 open-market purchases, $116K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $190K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $446K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $443K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Rizzuti Edward — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Rizzuti Edward — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rizzuti Edward — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Grooms Nina C — Purchase on 2026-03-24, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Grooms Nina C — Sale on 2026-03-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hureau Robert Paul — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Hureau Robert Paul — Purchase on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Hureau Robert Paul — Purchase on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Hureau Robert Paul — Purchase on 2025-11-14, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Hureau Robert Paul — Purchase on 2025-11-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Leonard Jeffery Allen — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Leonard Jeffery Allen — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Rizzuti Edward — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rizzuti Edward — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04Rizzuti EdwardofficerSale2,537 @ $174.68$443K−31.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open5,605Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-13Rizzuti EdwardofficerSale2,715 @ $164.41$446K−25.0% of holding+5.2%not yet — horizon still open8,142Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-24Rizzuti EdwardofficerSale600 @ $170.93$103K−5.2% of holding−6.4%not yet — horizon still open10,857Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-24Grooms Nina CdirectorPurchase233 @ $171.61$40K+8.2% of holding−6.4%not yet — horizon still open3,077Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-11Grooms Nina CdirectorSale499 @ $175.19$87K−14.9% of holding−0.2%−17.2%2,844Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09Hureau Robert PauldirectorPurchase460 @ $164.40$76K+3.8% of holding+5.1%−10.4%12,506Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-26Hureau Robert PauldirectorPurchase230 @ $163.98$38K+1.9% of holding+5.6%−18.8%12,046Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-26Hureau Robert PauldirectorPurchase74 @ $161.93$12K+0.6% of holding+5.6%−18.8%11,816Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-14Hureau Robert PauldirectorPurchase154 @ $161.36$25K+1.3% of holding+8.8%−17.2%11,742Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-13Hureau Robert PauldirectorPurchase600 @ $167.77$101K+5.5% of holding+6.2%−18.9%11,588Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-22Leonard Jeffery AllendirectorSale2,300 @ $222.11$511K−5.6% of holding−14.2%−9.7%38,613Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-22Leonard Jeffery AllendirectorSale200 @ $223.15$45K−0.5% of holding−14.2%−9.7%38,413Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-21Rizzuti EdwardofficerSale2,728 @ $212.10$579K−23.0% of holding−12.2%−8.4%9,109Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-21Rizzuti EdwardofficerSale200 @ $212.80$43K−2.2% of holding−12.2%−8.4%8,909Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-06Raborn Richard HodgesofficerSale1,480 @ $206.87$306K−11.4% of holding+4.5%−35.3%11,468Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-14Leonard Jeffery AllendirectorSale2,305 @ $201.81$465K−5.3% of holding+4.4%−33.3%40,913Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-14Leonard Jeffery AllendirectorSale1,195 @ $200.97$240K−2.7% of holding+4.4%−33.3%43,218Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-14Raborn Richard HodgesofficerSale500 @ $201.84$101K−3.7% of holding+4.4%−33.3%12,948Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-07Malone Dan EdwardofficerSale1,771 @ $183.07$324K−29.2% of holding+0.1%+2.3%4,290Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-07Rizzuti EdwardofficerSale750 @ $183.37$138K−6.6% of holding+0.1%+2.3%10,662Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-16Pollock Janet SofficerSale257 @ $193.41$50K−7.1% of holding−5.9%+10.6%3,360Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

78 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-03Grooms Nina CdirectorGift2,8441,138Form 4
2026-09-03Grooms Nina CdirectorGift2,8442,844Form 4
2026-09-02Hureau Robert PauldirectorWithheld for tax94221,094Form 4
2026-08-18Lucas Thomas GregoryofficerAward / grant496496Form 4
2026-08-01Thomas Kevin JonofficerWithheld for tax334,627Form 4
2026-07-08SEFZIK ANDREW WAYNEofficerAward / grant2771,836Form 4
2026-05-11Jokinen Tracy CdirectorAward / grant9059,143Form 4
2026-05-11Bauer Robert PdirectorAward / grant90510,467Form 4
2026-05-11Etchart EricdirectorAward / grant90512,662Form 4
2026-05-11Haley ColleendirectorAward / grant9051,815Form 4
2026-05-11Householder Paul DdirectorAward / grant9052,330Form 4
2026-05-11PAROD RICKdirectorAward / grant9059,723Form 4
2026-05-11Tekorius LoriedirectorAward / grant9055,963Form 4
2026-05-11Grooms Nina CdirectorAward / grant9053,982Form 4
2026-03-09Kamps AgnesofficerAward / grant2,5176,933Form 4
2026-03-09Raborn Richard HodgesofficerAward / grant1,79014,084Form 4
2026-03-09Sullivan Lori LofficerAward / grant3434,611Form 4
2026-03-09Srinivasan ReubenofficerAward / grant8341,556Form 4
2026-03-09Thomas Kevin JonofficerAward / grant1,8324,660Form 4
2026-03-09Hureau Robert PauldirectorAward / grant9,53022,036Form 4
2026-03-09Rizzuti EdwardofficerAward / grant1,81711,457Form 4
2026-03-06Kamps AgnesofficerWithheld for tax2334,416Form 4
2026-03-04Kamps AgnesofficerWithheld for tax2034,649Form 4
2026-03-04Raborn Richard HodgesofficerWithheld for tax13912,294Form 4
2026-03-04Rizzuti EdwardofficerWithheld for tax1209,640Form 4
2026-03-04Thomas Kevin JonofficerWithheld for tax1202,828Form 4
2026-03-04Srinivasan ReubenofficerWithheld for tax79722Form 4
2026-03-04Sullivan Lori LofficerWithheld for tax324,268Form 4
2026-02-26Raborn Richard HodgesofficerWithheld for tax39312,433Form 4
2026-02-26Rizzuti EdwardofficerWithheld for tax3469,760Form 4
2026-02-26Sullivan Lori LofficerWithheld for tax964,300Form 4
2026-02-26Raborn Richard HodgesofficerAward / grant1,61512,826Form 4
2026-02-26Sullivan Lori LofficerAward / grant3244,396Form 4
2026-02-26Rizzuti EdwardofficerAward / grant1,42110,106Form 4
2026-02-25Raborn Richard HodgesofficerWithheld for tax25711,211Form 4
2026-02-25Rizzuti EdwardofficerWithheld for tax2248,685Form 4
2026-02-25Thomas Kevin JonofficerWithheld for tax1332,948Form 4
2026-02-25Sullivan Lori LofficerWithheld for tax554,072Form 4
2025-09-02Leonard Jeffery AllendirectorWithheld for tax6,05332,360Form 4
2025-08-01Thomas Kevin JonofficerWithheld for tax333,081Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.