Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.93 · now $1.93 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALEC has typically landed between $1.34 and $2.62 — a range of −30.5% to +35.9% from the issuance price $1.93.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,891 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-02-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ALEC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.93 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.87 (-3.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.62–$2.12
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.34–$2.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,891 windows spanning 2019-02-07 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-11-11 | −65.0% | −65.0% | +0.0% |
| 2024-11-12 | −63.2% | −63.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-15 | −62.4% | −62.4% | +3.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-08-06 | +110.5% | +0.0% | +110.5% |
| 2023-11-15 | +108.6% | −0.8% | +108.6% |
| 2020-01-07 | +108.0% | +0.0% | +108.0% |
1,891 overlapping windows · 2019-02-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
43%
+4.2%
n=7
Feb
43%
+6.8%
n=7
Mar
13%
−11.7%
n=8
Apr
50%
−3.6%
n=8
May
38%
+1.6%
n=8
Jun
50%
−1.2%
n=8
Jul
75%
+2.4%
n=8
Aug
50%
+6.1%
n=8
Sep
25%
−4.6%
n=8
Oct
29%
−9.4%
n=7
Nov
43%
−2.2%
n=7
Dec
57%
+7.7%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Sale | 3,625 @ $2.51 | $9K | −3.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 106,015 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-03 | Rosenthal Arnon | director | Sale | 72,606 @ $2.66 | $193K | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,294,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Berkley Neil Lindsay | officer | Sale | 29,251 @ $2.66 | $78K | −7.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 350,649 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Sale | 5,165 @ $2.67 | $14K | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 109,640 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Sale | 656 @ $2.75 | $2K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 114,805 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Sale | 3,475 @ $1.88 | $7K | −3.5% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,461 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-02 | Rosenthal Arnon | director | Sale | 87,216 @ $1.97 | $172K | −3.6% of holding | +7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,367,206 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Berkley Neil Lindsay | officer | Sale | 19,360 @ $1.97 | $38K | −4.8% of holding | +7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 379,900 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Sale | 5,709 @ $1.97 | $11K | −5.5% of holding | +7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,936 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Sale | 1,820 @ $2.65 | $5K | −1.7% of holding | −20.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 104,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $2.65 | $3K | −0.9% of holding | +0.2% | −17.8% | 106,465 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Sale | 3,367 @ $2.08 | $7K | −3.0% of holding | +23.3% | +1.2% | 107,465 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Rosenthal Arnon | director | Sale | 81,864 @ $2.12 | $174K | −3.4% of holding | +2.3% | −10.1% | 2,338,176 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Berkley Neil Lindsay | officer | Sale | 29,649 @ $2.12 | $63K | −7.9% of holding | +2.3% | −10.1% | 344,660 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Sale | 8,071 @ $2.12 | $17K | −6.8% of holding | +2.3% | −10.1% | 110,832 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Sale | 4,079 @ $2.50 | $10K | −3.3% of holding | −14.1% | −19.1% | 118,903 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Sale | 4,753 @ $1.21 | $6K | −3.7% of holding | +43.4% | +25.5% | 122,982 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Rosenthal Arnon | director | Sale | 104,347 @ $1.12 | $117K | −4.1% of holding | +39.5% | +35.4% | 2,420,040 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Kenkare-Mitra Sara | director | Sale | 41,687 @ $1.12 | $47K | −7.7% of holding | +39.5% | +35.4% | 501,652 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Berkley Neil Lindsay | officer | Sale | 37,261 @ $1.12 | $42K | −9.1% of holding | +39.5% | +35.4% | 374,309 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Sale | 8,056 @ $1.12 | $9K | −5.9% of holding | +39.5% | +35.4% | 127,735 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-02 | Rosenthal Arnon | director | Sale | 51,562 @ $2.50 | $129K | −2.1% of holding | +11.1% | −24.6% | 2,350,220 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Kenkare-Mitra Sara | director | Sale | 23,638 @ $2.50 | $59K | −4.2% of holding | +11.1% | −24.6% | 543,339 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Berkley Neil Lindsay | officer | Sale | 15,842 @ $2.50 | $40K | −4.4% of holding | +11.1% | −24.6% | 346,570 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Sale | 5,910 @ $2.50 | $15K | −5.4% of holding | +11.1% | −24.6% | 103,448 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Hammond Paula | director | Sale | 14,000 @ $2.36 | $33K | −15.7% of holding | +21.9% | +1.0% | 74,909 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Yaffe Kristine | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $1.44 | $1K | −1.0% of holding | +11.2% | −19.6% | 95,409 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Rosenthal Arnon | director | Sale | 52,087 @ $1.34 | $70K | −2.1% of holding | +3.7% | −26.3% | 2,414,657 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Kenkare-Mitra Sara | director | Sale | 23,890 @ $1.34 | $32K | −4.5% of holding | +3.7% | −26.3% | 512,252 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | GRASSO MARC | officer | Sale | 16,488 @ $1.34 | $22K | −5.3% of holding | +3.7% | −26.3% | 296,072 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Rosenthal Arnon | director | Sale | 40,330 @ $1.47 | $59K | −1.6% of holding | −14.1% | +73.4% | 2,466,744 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Kenkare-Mitra Sara | director | Sale | 29,073 @ $1.47 | $43K | −5.1% of holding | −14.1% | +73.4% | 536,142 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | GRASSO MARC | officer | Sale | 18,091 @ $1.47 | $27K | −5.5% of holding | −14.1% | +73.4% | 312,560 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Romano Gary | officer | Sale | 16,306 @ $1.47 | $24K | −4.7% of holding | −14.1% | +73.4% | 332,977 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
46 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Rosenthal Arnon | director | Gift | 350,000 | 1,002,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Rosenthal Arnon | director | Gift | 1,050,000 | 922,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-09 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Award / grant | 20,000 | 115,461 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | SCHELLER RICHARD H | director | Award / grant | 9,450 | 9,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hammond Paula | director | Award / grant | 28,700 | 103,609 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Hammond Paula | director | Award / grant | 9,450 | 9,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Award / grant | 28,700 | 118,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Award / grant | 9,450 | 9,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Yaffe Kristine | director | Award / grant | 28,700 | 124,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Yaffe Kristine | director | Award / grant | 9,450 | 9,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | DESOUZA ERROL B | director | Award / grant | 28,700 | 98,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | DESOUZA ERROL B | director | Award / grant | 9,450 | 9,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Altmeyer Mark | director | Award / grant | 28,700 | 98,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Altmeyer Mark | director | Award / grant | 9,450 | 9,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | SCHELLER RICHARD H | director | Award / grant | 28,700 | 134,899 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | LAVIGNE LOUIS J JR | director | Award / grant | 9,450 | 9,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | LAVIGNE LOUIS J JR | director | Award / grant | 28,700 | 128,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SCHELLER RICHARD H | director | Award / grant | 10,833 | 106,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Berkley Neil Lindsay | officer | Award / grant | 54,600 | 399,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Rosenthal Arnon | director | Award / grant | 116,246 | 2,454,422 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Berkley Neil Lindsay | officer | Award / grant | 195,000 | 195,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Rosenthal Arnon | director | Award / grant | 174,167 | 2,524,387 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Rosenthal Arnon | director | Award / grant | 522,500 | 522,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Award / grant | 32,343 | 135,791 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Wong-Sarad Grace | officer | Award / grant | 48,535 | 48,535 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-10 | Berkley Neil Lindsay | officer | Award / grant | 65,000 | 411,570 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Rosenthal Arnon | director | Award / grant | 45,700 | 45,700 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Kenkare-Mitra Sara | director | Award / grant | 18,250 | 18,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Berkley Neil Lindsay | officer | Award / grant | 18,000 | 18,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Rosenthal Arnon | director | Award / grant | 137,125 | 2,551,782 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-01 | Kenkare-Mitra Sara | director | Award / grant | 54,725 | 566,977 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Altmeyer Mark | director | Award / grant | 9,450 | 9,450 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | DESOUZA ERROL B | director | Award / grant | 28,700 | 69,950 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | DESOUZA ERROL B | director | Award / grant | 9,450 | 9,450 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | LAVIGNE LOUIS J JR | director | Award / grant | 28,700 | 99,409 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | LAVIGNE LOUIS J JR | director | Award / grant | 9,450 | 9,450 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Altmeyer Mark | director | Award / grant | 28,700 | 69,950 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | SCHELLER RICHARD H | director | Award / grant | 28,700 | 95,366 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | SCHELLER RICHARD H | director | Award / grant | 9,450 | 9,450 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | GAROFALO ELIZABETH A. | director | Award / grant | 28,700 | 89,950 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.