ALDX · TickerCove

ALDXAldeyra TheHealthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.37 · now $1.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALDX has typically landed between $0.94 and $1.94 — a range of −31.5% to +41.4% from the issuance price $1.37.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,087 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-05-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$1.37 · 1% of range

$1.34 low$5.74 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.8%

typical move · IQR 27.7%

−31.5%worst (p90)+41.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ALDX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $1.37 (+0.0%)
typical $1.38 (+0.8%)
middle 50% $1.19–$1.57
90% range $0.939–$1.94

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,087 windows spanning 2014-05-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2023-09-27	−75.9%	−75.9%	+9.3%
2023-09-21	−75.9%	−75.9%	+7.9%
2023-09-28	−75.4%	−76.5%	+6.7%
3 best
2017-08-15	+114.5%	−6.0%	+114.5%
2017-08-16	+114.1%	−8.2%	+114.1%
2017-08-21	+103.8%	+0.0%	+133.3%

3,087 overlapping windows · 2014-05-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

58%

+7.2%

n=12

Feb

58%

−0.1%

n=12

Mar

42%

−4.9%

n=12

Apr

42%

−1.6%

n=12

May

42%

+2.4%

n=12

Jun

38%

+4.7%

n=13

Jul

54%

+2.7%

n=13

Aug

46%

+4.4%

n=13

Sep

46%

+15.1%

n=13

Oct

42%

−9.2%

n=12

Nov

67%

+8.0%

n=12

Dec

42%

−3.2%

n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-03	Brady Todd C	director	Purchase	250,000 @ $1.67	$418K	+17.0% of holding	+22.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,721,298	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-19	DOUGLAS RICHARD	director	Purchase	70,000 @ $1.40	$98K	+56.0% of holding	−10.4%	not yet — horizon still open	195,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-18	Alfieri Michael	officer	Purchase	5,000 @ $1.42	$7K	+200.0% of holding	+19.1%	not yet — horizon still open	7,500	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13	Alfieri Michael	officer	Purchase	2,500 @ $5.30	$13K	ownership Δ n/a	−1.6%	−8.5%	2,500	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-11	Machatha Stephen	officer	Sale	22,073 @ $5.15	$114K	−9.1% of holding	+3.0%	−5.1%	221,799	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-03	PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC	director	Sale	3,400,000 @ $1.42	$4.8M	−36.7% of holding	−49.2%	−11.5%	5,875,851	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

38 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-09	Miller-Rich Nancy	director	Award / grant	3,318	3,318	Form 4
2026-06-09	DEPTULA-HICKS DARLENE M	director	Award / grant	84,557	84,557	Form 4
2026-06-09	DEPTULA-HICKS DARLENE M	director	Award / grant	9,756	9,756	Form 4
2026-06-09	Bronstein Ben	director	Award / grant	70,000	70,000	Form 4
2026-06-09	Bronstein Ben	director	Award / grant	5,309	5,309	Form 4
2026-06-09	Bronstein Ben	director	Award / grant	4,977	4,977	Form 4
2026-06-09	Walker Neal	director	Award / grant	70,000	70,000	Form 4
2026-06-09	Walker Neal	director	Award / grant	3,318	3,318	Form 4
2026-06-09	Clark William D	director	Award / grant	70,000	70,000	Form 4
2026-06-09	Clark William D	director	Award / grant	2,323	2,323	Form 4
2026-06-09	Phillips Gary M.	director	Award / grant	70,000	70,000	Form 4
2026-06-09	Phillips Gary M.	director	Award / grant	6,636	6,636	Form 4
2026-06-09	Phillips Gary M.	director	Award / grant	4,977	4,977	Form 4
2026-06-09	DOUGLAS RICHARD	director	Award / grant	70,000	70,000	Form 4
2026-06-09	DOUGLAS RICHARD	director	Award / grant	19,909	19,909	Form 4
2026-06-09	DOUGLAS RICHARD	director	Award / grant	2,323	2,323	Form 4
2026-06-09	Miller-Rich Nancy	director	Award / grant	70,000	70,000	Form 4
2026-03-27	Brady Todd C	director	Award / grant	632,318	632,318	Form 4
2026-03-27	Brady Todd C	director	Award / grant	1,880,510	1,880,510	Form 4
2025-06-10	DOUGLAS RICHARD	director	Award / grant	62,728	62,728	Form 4
2025-06-10	DOUGLAS RICHARD	director	Award / grant	14,476	14,476	Form 4
2025-06-10	Phillips Gary M.	director	Award / grant	4,825	4,825	Form 4
2025-06-10	Phillips Gary M.	director	Award / grant	3,619	3,619	Form 4
2025-06-10	DOUGLAS RICHARD	director	Award / grant	1,689	1,689	Form 4
2025-06-10	JOYCE MARTIN JOSEPH	director	Award / grant	62,728	62,728	Form 4
2025-06-10	JOYCE MARTIN JOSEPH	director	Award / grant	1,689	1,689	Form 4
2025-06-10	JOYCE MARTIN JOSEPH	director	Award / grant	7,238	7,238	Form 4
2025-06-10	Bronstein Ben	director	Award / grant	3,619	3,619	Form 4
2025-06-10	Bronstein Ben	director	Award / grant	62,728	62,728	Form 4
2025-06-10	Phillips Gary M.	director	Award / grant	62,728	62,728	Form 4
2025-06-10	Miller-Rich Nancy	director	Award / grant	62,728	62,728	Form 4
2025-06-10	Miller-Rich Nancy	director	Award / grant	2,413	2,413	Form 4
2025-06-10	Walker Neal	director	Award / grant	62,728	62,728	Form 4
2025-06-10	Walker Neal	director	Award / grant	2,413	2,413	Form 4
2025-04-17	Clark William D	director	Award / grant	76,760	76,760	Form 4
2025-03-04	Brady Todd C	director	Award / grant	809,710	809,710	Form 4
2025-03-04	Machatha Stephen	officer	Award / grant	202,427	202,427	Form 4
2024-06-10	Bronstein Ben	director	Award / grant	3,860	3,860	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i