ALCOAlico, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Agricultural Farm Productsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $39.40 · now $39.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALCO has typically landed between $35.57 and $44.97 — a range of −9.7% to +14.1% from the issuance price $39.40.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($39.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ALCO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $39.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$35.57worst · -9.7%$44.97best · +14.1%
  • now $39.4 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $39.5 (+0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $37.55–$41.45
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $35.57–$44.97
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-23−38.8%−38.8%+0.5%
2020-02-13−38.5%−38.5%+0.0%
2020-02-18−34.4%−37.1%+0.0%
3 best
2008-12-01+55.0%+0.0%+55.0%
2008-12-04+48.5%+0.0%+48.5%
2014-12-01+42.6%+0.0%+44.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+1.0%
n=20
Feb
25%
−3.6%
n=20
Mar
60%
+3.3%
n=20
Apr
50%
+0.4%
n=20
May
50%
+2.2%
n=20
Jun
60%
+1.7%
n=20
Jul
50%
+1.4%
n=20
Aug
45%
−1.8%
n=20
Sep
40%
−0.6%
n=20
Oct
50%
+0.7%
n=20
Nov
35%
−1.6%
n=20
Dec
60%
+1.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$44$312026-08-20: 1 insider purchase, $50K — SPERON ERIC H.2025-08-26: 1 insider sale, $122K — SLACK HENRY R2025-08-25: 1 insider sale, $101K — SLACK HENRY R2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $814K — SLACK HENRY R2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $1.0M2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $50K↑ buys↓ salesdirector SPERON ERIC H. — Purchase on 2026-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SLACK HENRY R — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SLACK HENRY R — Sale on 2025-08-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SLACK HENRY R — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20SPERON ERIC H.directorPurchase1,250 @ $39.73$50K+117.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open2,310Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-26SLACK HENRY RdirectorSale3,548 @ $34.29$122K−9.2% of holding−4.3%+14.4%35,188Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25SLACK HENRY RdirectorSale2,913 @ $34.56$101K−7.0% of holding−6.7%+12.3%38,736Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-15SLACK HENRY RdirectorSale24,789 @ $32.83$814K−37.3% of holding+0.8%+18.9%41,649Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

37 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-14Kiernan John EdirectorAward / grant160,000160,000Form 4
2026-07-01SPERON ERIC H.directorAward / grant4531,060Form 4
2026-07-01Purse Toby KdirectorAward / grant51321,341Form 4
2026-07-01English KatherinedirectorAward / grant48315,382Form 4
2026-07-01Putnam AdamdirectorAward / grant78518,484Form 4
2026-04-01Putnam AdamdirectorAward / grant78917,699Form 4
2026-04-01SPERON ERIC H.directorAward / grant607607Form 4
2026-04-01Purse Toby KdirectorAward / grant51620,828Form 4
2026-04-01English KatherinedirectorAward / grant48614,899Form 4
2026-01-02English KatherinedirectorAward / grant55014,413Form 4
2026-01-02KRUSEN W ANDREW JRdirectorAward / grant34443,074Form 4
2026-01-02Fishman Benjamin DdirectorAward / grant34413,495Form 4
2026-01-02Purse Toby KdirectorAward / grant58520,312Form 4
2026-01-02Putnam AdamdirectorAward / grant85916,910Form 4
2025-10-01Purse Toby KdirectorAward / grant63519,727Form 4
2025-10-01KRUSEN W ANDREW JRdirectorAward / grant56042,730Form 4
2025-10-01Fishman Benjamin DdirectorAward / grant56013,151Form 4
2025-10-01English KatherinedirectorAward / grant59813,863Form 4
2025-10-01Putnam AdamdirectorAward / grant93316,051Form 4
2025-07-01Purse Toby KdirectorAward / grant63319,092Form 4
2025-07-01KRUSEN W ANDREW JRdirectorAward / grant55842,170Form 4
2025-07-01Fishman Benjamin DdirectorAward / grant55812,591Form 4
2025-07-01English KatherinedirectorAward / grant59613,265Form 4
2025-07-01Putnam AdamdirectorAward / grant93015,118Form 4
2025-04-01Putnam AdamdirectorAward / grant1,06414,188Form 4
2025-04-01Fishman Benjamin DdirectorAward / grant63912,033Form 4
2025-04-01Purse Toby KdirectorAward / grant72418,459Form 4
2025-04-01Brokaw George RdirectorAward / grant681267,269Form 4
2025-04-01KRUSEN W ANDREW JRdirectorAward / grant63941,612Form 4
2025-04-01English KatherinedirectorAward / grant68112,669Form 4
2025-01-02KRUSEN W ANDREW JRdirectorAward / grant82140,973Form 4
2025-01-02Putnam AdamdirectorAward / grant77313,124Form 4
2025-01-02Purse Toby KdirectorAward / grant77317,735Form 4
2025-01-02Brokaw George RdirectorAward / grant724266,588Form 4
2025-01-02Fishman Benjamin DdirectorAward / grant72411,394Form 4
2025-01-02English KatherinedirectorAward / grant77311,988Form 4
2024-12-23Kiernan John EdirectorAward / grant38,00038,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.