ALBAlbemarle CorporationBasic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-25
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $109.73 · now $109.73 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ALB has typically landed between $86.31 and $137.94 — a range of −21.3% to +25.7% from the issuance price $109.73.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($109.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ALB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $109.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$86.31worst · -21.3%$137.94best · +25.7%
  • now $109.73 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $108.24 (-1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $95.83–$120.65
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $86.31–$137.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−44.6%−44.6%+0.0%
2008-09-26−44.5%−44.5%+0.0%
2020-02-20−43.0%−43.0%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+58.5%+0.0%+58.5%
2009-03-06+54.1%−0.6%+55.0%
2020-10-28+51.6%+0.0%+51.6%

4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$13.5B
market cap
$-3.41
EPS (TTM)
—
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$5.1B
'20'25
Net income−$511M
'20'25
Free cash flow$692M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-9.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-5.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.35
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $109.73$-150.12$294.68
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-119.45
  • Analyst target · range $153.00–$264.00$202.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-25$109.73

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+2.2%
n=18
Feb
68%
+2.2%
n=19
Mar
42%
−1.6%
n=19
Apr
68%
+2.4%
n=19
May
63%
+4.1%
n=19
Jun
42%
−3.5%
n=19
Jul
47%
+2.9%
n=19
Aug
58%
+0.3%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.4%
n=19
Oct
61%
+2.7%
n=18
Nov
72%
+6.2%
n=18
Dec
56%
−0.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$215$722026-05-15: 3 insider sales, $3.0M — Masters J Kent …2026-03-10: 3 insider sales, $2.0M — Masters J Kent …2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $942K — Norris Eric2026-02-13: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Anderson Melissa H.2025-10-24: 1 insider sale, $18K — Krupa Ander C.2025-10-09: 1 insider sale, $11K — Krupa Ander C.2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $29K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $2.3M2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $2.0M2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $3.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Masters J Kent — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Masters J Kent — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Masters J Kent — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Masters J Kent — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Masters J Kent — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Masters J Kent — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Norris Eric — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Anderson Melissa H. — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Krupa Ander C. — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Krupa Ander C. — Sale on 2025-10-09, filed 5 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-15Masters J KentdirectorSale11,867 @ $183.87$2.2M−11.9% of holding−9.2%not yet — horizon still open88,219Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Masters J KentdirectorSale3,826 @ $183.12$701K−3.7% of holding−9.2%not yet — horizon still open100,086Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-15Masters J KentdirectorSale700 @ $184.52$129K−0.8% of holding−9.2%not yet — horizon still open87,519Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-10Masters J KentdirectorSale5,392 @ $171.18$923K−3.8% of holding+3.1%−37.5%135,624Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Masters J KentdirectorSale5,395 @ $170.26$919K−3.7% of holding+3.1%−37.5%141,016Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Masters J KentdirectorSale996 @ $171.82$171K−0.7% of holding+3.1%−37.5%134,628Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-20Norris EricofficerSale5,692 @ $165.45$942K−10.4% of holding+4.4%−26.2%48,819Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-13Anderson Melissa H.directorSale8,454 @ $163.71$1.4M−47.2% of holding+1.8%−33.0%9,439Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-10-24Krupa Ander C.officerSale172 @ $105.00$18K−1.5% of holding+11.0%+72.2%11,483Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-09Krupa Ander C.officerSale116 @ $95.00$11K−1.0% of holding+0.7%+90.4%11,655Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2024-12-05Masters J KentdirectorSale2,525 @ $101.12$255K−3.3% of holding−8.0%−35.9%73,747Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-11-19Johnson Netha N.directorSale1,060 @ $106.04$112K−3.4% of holding−15.4%−44.1%30,360Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-05-14Mummert Mark RichardofficerSale843 @ $135.53$114K−11.0% of holding−23.8%−38.3%6,802Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-05-13Barichivich John Clarence IIIofficerSale1,475 @ $132.17$195K−23.7% of holding−18.3%−31.0%4,743Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

263 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-14Norris EricofficerAward / grant10,86764,310Form 4
2026-09-14Gagarinas Autumn M.officerAward / grant5,21710,610Form 4
2026-09-14Mummert Mark RichardofficerAward / grant6,08623,601Form 4
2026-09-01Hood MaxofficerAward / grant1,4761,476Form 4
2026-07-21DESALLES BARTOLOMEO EDUARDOdirectorAward / grant1,3751,375Form 4
2026-07-01Cramer Ralf HansdirectorWithheld for tax9295,700Form 4
2026-07-01Cramer Ralf HansdirectorWithheld for tax135,723Form 4
2026-07-01Wolff Alejandro DanieldirectorAward / grant3313,044Form 4
2026-07-01Wolff Alejandro DanieldirectorAward / grant1,2507,590Form 4
2026-07-01OConnell Diarmuid B.directorAward / grant1,2508,590Form 4
2026-07-01Van Deursen HollydirectorAward / grant1,25010,028Form 4
2026-07-01OConnell Diarmuid B.directorAward / grant368,626Form 4
2026-07-01Cramer Ralf HansdirectorAward / grant1,2506,629Form 4
2026-07-01Widmar Mark RdirectorAward / grant1,2501,576Form 4
2026-07-01Cramer Ralf HansdirectorAward / grant365,736Form 4
2026-07-01MINOR GLENDA JdirectorAward / grant1,2505,606Form 4
2026-07-01Collins Michelle TdirectorAward / grant1,2501,575Form 4
2026-07-01Collins Michelle TdirectorAward / grant21,577Form 4
2026-07-01STEINER GERALD AdirectorAward / grant1,25013,196Form 4
2026-07-01BRLAS LAURIEdirectorAward / grant367,289Form 4
2026-07-01BRLAS LAURIEdirectorAward / grant1,2507,253Form 4
2026-07-01STEINER GERALD AdirectorAward / grant3613,232Form 4
2026-04-01Wolff Alejandro DanieldirectorAward / grant2513,011Form 4
2026-03-12Masters J KentdirectorGift30,716103,912Form 4
2026-03-02LaBauve Donald J. Jr.officerAward / grant69810,402Form 4
2026-03-02Sheorey Neal RaviofficerAward / grant4,49020,931Form 4
2026-03-02Gagarinas Autumn M.officerAward / grant1,7965,393Form 4
2026-03-02Anderson Melissa H.directorAward / grant4,49014,002Form 4
2026-03-02Krupa Ander C.officerAward / grant1,79613,184Form 4
2026-03-02Masters J KentdirectorAward / grant22,450146,411Form 4
2026-03-02Mummert Mark RichardofficerAward / grant3,14317,515Form 4
2026-03-02Norris EricofficerAward / grant4,49053,443Form 4
2026-03-02Lima Cynthia ReneeofficerAward / grant1,79614,438Form 4
2026-02-27LaBauve Donald J. Jr.officerAward / grant1,26610,132Form 4
2026-02-27LaBauve Donald J. Jr.officerWithheld for tax3619,704Form 4
2026-02-26Masters J KentdirectorAward / grant9,032127,885Form 4
2026-02-26Masters J KentdirectorWithheld for tax3,924123,961Form 4
2026-02-26Norris EricofficerAward / grant1,80649,738Form 4
2026-02-26Anderson Melissa H.directorAward / grant1,12910,003Form 4
2026-02-26Norris EricofficerWithheld for tax78548,953Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
John BoozmanSenatepurchase2026-06-162026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-05$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-07$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-04-102025-03-21$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-03-122025-02-12$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-03-092025-02-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-03-062025-02-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-05$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.