ALAB · TickerCove

ALABAstera Labs, Inc. Common StockTechnology · Semiconductorsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $269.18 · now $269.18 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALAB has typically landed between $183.87 and $419.58 — a range of −31.7% to +55.9% from the issuance price $269.18.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

604 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-03-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($269.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$269.18 · 44% of range

$100.27 low$483.02 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.6%

typical move · IQR 46.7%

−31.7%worst (p90)+55.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ALAB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $269.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $269.18 (+0.0%)
typical $273.46 (+1.6%)
middle 50% $210.62–$336.31
90% range $183.87–$419.58

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 604 windows spanning 2024-03-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-06-29	−45.2%	−45.2%	+5.9%
2025-02-06	−41.0%	−41.0%	+0.0%
2024-12-23	−38.7%	−38.7%	+7.6%
3 best
2025-07-14	+112.6%	+0.0%	+112.6%
2025-07-15	+109.7%	−0.5%	+109.7%
2025-07-16	+107.4%	+0.0%	+110.6%

604 overlapping windows · 2024-03-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

−16.4%

n=2

Feb

−23.9%

n=2

Mar

−13.8%

n=2

Apr

100%

+33.8%

n=3

May

67%

+30.4%

n=3

Jun

33%

+11.4%

n=3

Jul

33%

−4.0%

n=3

Aug

33%

+9.0%

n=3

Sep

67%

+6.6%

n=3

Oct

50%

+14.6%

n=2

Nov

50%

+15.8%

n=2

Dec

100%

+16.9%

n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-02	Dyckerhoff Stefan A	director	Sale	5,409 @ $274.79	$1.5M	−1.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	297,007	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	Dyckerhoff Stefan A	director	Sale	2,275 @ $274.79	$625K	−4.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	51,413	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	Dyckerhoff Stefan A	director	Sale	1,867 @ $275.53	$514K	−0.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	295,140	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	Dyckerhoff Stefan A	director	Sale	785 @ $275.53	$216K	−1.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	50,628	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	Dyckerhoff Stefan A	director	Sale	650 @ $273.64	$178K	−0.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	302,416	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	Dyckerhoff Stefan A	director	Sale	429 @ $274.79	$118K	−10.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,489	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	Dyckerhoff Stefan A	director	Sale	407 @ $276.75	$113K	−0.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	294,733	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	Dyckerhoff Stefan A	director	Sale	273 @ $273.64	$75K	−0.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	53,688	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	Dyckerhoff Stefan A	director	Sale	172 @ $276.75	$48K	−0.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	50,456	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	Dyckerhoff Stefan A	director	Sale	148 @ $275.53	$41K	−4.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,341	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	Dyckerhoff Stefan A	director	Sale	52 @ $273.64	$14K	−1.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,918	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02	Dyckerhoff Stefan A	director	Sale	32 @ $276.75	$9K	−1.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,309	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	59,379 @ $280.04	$16.6M	−4.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,154,377	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	37,176 @ $279.28	$10.4M	−3.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,213,756	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	20,991 @ $278.33	$5.8M	−1.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,250,932	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	13,070 @ $280.04	$3.7M	−4.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	260,428	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	12,882 @ $281.16	$3.6M	−1.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,141,495	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	8,179 @ $279.28	$2.3M	−2.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	273,498	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	5,870 @ $282.13	$1.7M	−0.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,135,625	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	4,618 @ $278.33	$1.3M	−1.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	281,677	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	3,954 @ $283.19	$1.1M	−0.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,131,671	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	2,835 @ $281.16	$797K	−1.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	257,593	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	2,677 @ $286.99	$768K	−0.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,126,409	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	2,575 @ $277.32	$714K	−0.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,271,923	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	2,245 @ $284.17	$638K	−0.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,129,426	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	1,288 @ $282.13	$363K	−0.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	256,305	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	1,019 @ $287.93	$293K	−0.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,125,390	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	892 @ $288.95	$258K	−0.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,124,498	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	868 @ $283.18	$246K	−0.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	255,437	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	588 @ $287.00	$169K	−0.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	254,284	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	568 @ $277.32	$158K	−0.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	286,295	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	491 @ $284.18	$140K	−0.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	254,946	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	340 @ $285.18	$97K	−0.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,129,086	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	225 @ $287.93	$65K	−0.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	254,059	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	196 @ $288.95	$57K	−0.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	253,863	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-01	ALBA MANUEL	director	Sale	74 @ $285.18	$21K	−0.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	254,872	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Gajendra Sanjay	director	Sale	17,373 @ $344.99	$6.0M	−1.4% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,181,602	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Mohan Jitendra	director	Sale	17,373 @ $344.99	$6.0M	−1.3% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,329,229	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Mohan Jitendra	director	Sale	12,608 @ $333.60	$4.2M	−1.0% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,266,665	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Gajendra Sanjay	director	Sale	12,608 @ $333.60	$4.2M	−1.1% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,119,038	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Mohan Jitendra	director	Sale	10,438 @ $337.76	$3.5M	−0.8% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,290,927	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Gajendra Sanjay	director	Sale	10,438 @ $337.76	$3.5M	−0.9% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,143,300	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Gajendra Sanjay	director	Sale	7,992 @ $338.58	$2.7M	−0.7% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,153,738	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Mohan Jitendra	director	Sale	7,992 @ $338.58	$2.7M	−0.6% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,301,365	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Mohan Jitendra	director	Sale	6,926 @ $334.23	$2.3M	−0.5% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,279,273	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Gajendra Sanjay	director	Sale	6,926 @ $334.23	$2.3M	−0.6% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,131,646	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Mohan Jitendra	director	Sale	6,484 @ $339.74	$2.2M	−0.5% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,309,357	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Gajendra Sanjay	director	Sale	6,484 @ $339.74	$2.2M	−0.6% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,161,730	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Mohan Jitendra	director	Sale	5,449 @ $342.95	$1.9M	−0.4% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,320,067	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Gajendra Sanjay	director	Sale	5,449 @ $342.95	$1.9M	−0.5% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,172,440	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Gajendra Sanjay	director	Sale	3,713 @ $343.94	$1.3M	−0.3% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,177,889	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Mohan Jitendra	director	Sale	3,713 @ $343.94	$1.3M	−0.3% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,325,516	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Mohan Jitendra	director	Sale	3,500 @ $347.01	$1.2M	−0.3% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,349,127	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Gajendra Sanjay	director	Sale	3,500 @ $347.01	$1.2M	−0.3% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,201,500	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Mohan Jitendra	director	Sale	2,946 @ $336.65	$992K	−0.2% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,287,981	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Gajendra Sanjay	director	Sale	2,946 @ $336.65	$992K	−0.3% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,140,354	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Gajendra Sanjay	director	Sale	2,616 @ $340.58	$891K	−0.2% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,168,214	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Mohan Jitendra	director	Sale	2,616 @ $340.58	$891K	−0.2% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,315,841	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Gajendra Sanjay	director	Sale	2,525 @ $346.13	$874K	−0.2% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,198,975	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-17	Mohan Jitendra	director	Sale	2,525 @ $346.13	$874K	−0.2% of holding	−13.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,346,602	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

8 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-20	Cota Germaine	officer	Award / grant	1,451	26,440	Form 4
2026-06-04	Dyckerhoff Stefan A	director	Award / grant	837	60,971	Form 4
2026-06-04	HURLSTON MICHAEL E.	director	Award / grant	837	92,482	Form 4
2026-06-04	Mayer Bethany	director	Award / grant	837	6,236	Form 4
2026-06-04	LAZAR JACK R	director	Award / grant	837	85,688	Form 4
2026-06-04	BARRATT CRAIG H	director	Award / grant	837	6,825	Form 4
2026-05-22	Gajendra Sanjay	director	Gift	226,189	1,209,668	Form 4
2026-05-22	Gajendra Sanjay	director	Gift	226,189	5,290,402	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i