AKRAcadia Realty TrustReal Estate · REIT - Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.41 · now $19.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AKR has typically landed between $17.12 and $21.62 — a range of −11.8% to +11.4% from the issuance price $19.41.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AKR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$17.12worst · -11.8%$21.62best · +11.4%
  • now $19.41 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $19.54 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.62–$20.47
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.12–$21.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-03-04−55.7%−55.7%+0.0%
2020-03-05−54.7%−54.7%+0.0%
2020-03-06−51.8%−54.2%+0.0%
3 best
2020-11-04+58.9%−2.4%+58.9%
2020-10-28+58.8%+0.0%+63.4%
2020-11-02+55.8%−0.7%+59.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+0.1%
n=20
Feb
55%
+0.9%
n=20
Mar
60%
−1.2%
n=20
Apr
60%
+3.1%
n=20
May
40%
−1.6%
n=20
Jun
50%
−0.0%
n=20
Jul
75%
+3.8%
n=20
Aug
45%
−0.4%
n=20
Sep
50%
−0.4%
n=20
Oct
55%
+0.6%
n=20
Nov
50%
+2.1%
n=20
Dec
55%
+0.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$23$182026-05-06: 1 insider sale, $553K — Livingston Reginald2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $553K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Livingston Reginald — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-06Livingston ReginaldofficerSale25,000 @ $22.12$553K−72.6% of holding+0.6%not yet — horizon still open9,426Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-11Livingston ReginaldofficerSale20,000 @ $20.03$401K−100.0% of holding−8.2%−10.5%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-10Napolitano JosephofficerSale46,567 @ $22.39$1.0M−99.7% of holding−9.6%−27.9%118Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-06Blacksberg JasonofficerSale30,000 @ $22.81$684K−100.0% of holding−6.3%−22.6%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-19Gottfried John J.officerSale12,000 @ $23.55$283K−61.2% of holding−1.0%−21.1%7,600Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

51 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-13Woodhouse Hope BdirectorAward / grant5,59215,533Form 4
2026-05-13Spitz William T.directorAward / grant5,592113,248Form 4
2026-05-13Thurber Lynn CdirectorAward / grant5,592111,573Form 4
2026-05-13Thurber Lynn CdirectorAward / grant5,178105,981Form 4
2026-05-13Denien Mark AdirectorAward / grant5,59257,352Form 4
2026-05-13Wielansky Lee SdirectorAward / grant6,99074,024Form 4
2026-05-13Zoba David CdirectorAward / grant5,59284,291Form 4
2026-05-13McIntyre Kenneth A JrdirectorAward / grant5,59234,793Form 4
2026-05-13Denien Mark AdirectorAward / grant5,43651,760Form 4
2026-05-06Livingston ReginaldofficerConversion25,000117,863Form 4
2026-05-06Livingston ReginaldofficerConversion25,00034,726Form 4
2026-02-18Livingston ReginaldofficerAward / grant41,111142,863Form 4
2026-02-18Gottfried John J.officerAward / grant64,480484,828Form 4
2026-02-18Blacksberg JasonofficerAward / grant53,921390,806Form 4
2026-02-18Napolitano JosephofficerAward / grant44,910258,436Form 4
2026-02-18BERNSTEIN KENNETH FdirectorAward / grant223,1463,133,252Form 4
2026-01-23Napolitano JosephofficerAward / grant29,546213,526Form 4
2026-01-23Livingston ReginaldofficerAward / grant22,982101,752Form 4
2026-01-23Blacksberg JasonofficerAward / grant34,472336,885Form 4
2026-01-23BERNSTEIN KENNETH FdirectorAward / grant210,1122,910,106Form 4
2026-01-23Gottfried John J.officerAward / grant55,810420,348Form 4
2026-01-05Buell DavidofficerAward / grant36,68436,684Form 4
2025-06-11Livingston ReginaldofficerConversion15,67878,770Form 4
2025-06-11Livingston ReginaldofficerConversion15,67820,000Form 4
2025-05-08Thurber Lynn CdirectorAward / grant6,221100,803Form 4
2025-05-08Spitz William T.directorAward / grant6,221107,656Form 4
2025-05-08Thurber Lynn CdirectorAward / grant5,76094,582Form 4
2025-05-08Denien Mark AdirectorAward / grant6,04840,103Form 4
2025-05-08Denien Mark AdirectorAward / grant6,22146,324Form 4
2025-05-08Wielansky Lee SdirectorAward / grant7,77667,034Form 4
2025-05-08Zoba David CdirectorAward / grant6,22178,699Form 4
2025-05-08Woodhouse Hope BdirectorAward / grant6,22112,083Form 4
2025-05-08McIntyre Kenneth A JrdirectorAward / grant6,22129,201Form 4
2025-03-10Napolitano JosephofficerConversion46,56746,685Form 4
2025-03-10Napolitano JosephofficerConversion46,567183,980Form 4
2025-03-06Blacksberg JasonofficerConversion30,00030,000Form 4
2025-03-06Blacksberg JasonofficerConversion30,000302,413Form 4
2025-02-19Gottfried John J.officerConversion12,000364,538Form 4
2025-02-19Gottfried John J.officerConversion12,00019,600Form 4
2025-02-14Gottfried John J.officerAward / grant54,370376,538Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.