Issued 2026-09-16 at $104.48 · now $104.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AKAM has typically landed between $88.31 and $119.09 — a range of −15.5% to +14.0% from the issuance price $104.48.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($104.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AKAM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $104.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $104.48 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $105.14 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $99.14–$111.13
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $88.31–$119.09
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-08-28 | −36.1% | −36.1% | +0.0% |
| 2011-07-22 | −34.2% | −34.2% | +1.1% |
| 2008-07-01 | −34.2% | −34.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-14 | +81.4% | +0.0% | +81.4% |
| 2026-04-15 | +72.2% | +0.0% | +78.3% |
| 2026-04-10 | +67.5% | −2.7% | +67.5% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$16.8B
market cap
$2.97
EPS (TTM)
38.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$4.2B
'20'25
Net income$452M
'20'25
Free cash flow$699M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr10.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr9.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.39
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$138.43
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$101.59
- Analyst target · range $76.00–$195.00$165.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$104.48
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
61%
+1.0%
n=18
Feb
53%
+1.5%
n=19
Mar
68%
+2.9%
n=19
Apr
63%
+3.4%
n=19
May
63%
+2.2%
n=19
Jun
47%
−2.2%
n=19
Jul
53%
−1.5%
n=19
Aug
58%
+1.6%
n=19
Sep
37%
−1.8%
n=19
Oct
50%
+1.8%
n=18
Nov
61%
+2.6%
n=18
Dec
56%
+2.0%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Joseph Paul C | officer | Sale | 3,100 @ $105.63 | $327K | −9.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,472 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-15 | Joseph Paul C | officer | Sale | 3,100 @ $126.77 | $393K | −8.9% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,572 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-18 | Blumofe Robert | officer | Sale | 243 @ $129.41 | $31K | −0.8% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,006 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-10 | Salem-Jackson Kim | officer | Sale | 2,300 @ $135.57 | $312K | −3.7% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,210 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-16 | Ahola Aaron | officer | Sale | 4,500 @ $106.27 | $478K | −13.2% of holding | −19.2% | −13.8% | 29,716 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-16 | Joseph Paul C | officer | Sale | 2,967 @ $105.89 | $314K | −7.5% of holding | −19.2% | −13.8% | 36,566 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-16 | Joseph Paul C | officer | Sale | 1,950 @ $106.73 | $208K | −5.3% of holding | −19.2% | −13.8% | 34,616 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-16 | Joseph Paul C | officer | Sale | 83 @ $108.00 | $9K | −0.2% of holding | −19.2% | −13.8% | 34,533 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | Karon Adam | officer | Sale | 17,000 @ $107.43 | $1.8M | −44.3% of holding | −13.3% | −14.1% | 21,332 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Williams Anthony P | officer | Sale | 12,255 @ $104.15 | $1.3M | −33.1% of holding | −14.9% | −12.0% | 24,809 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Williams Anthony P | officer | Sale | 2,745 @ $104.92 | $288K | −11.1% of holding | −14.9% | −12.0% | 22,064 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | McGowan Edward J | officer | Sale | 9,734 @ $100.97 | $983K | −18.5% of holding | +4.2% | −7.2% | 42,795 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | McGowan Edward J | officer | Sale | 4,011 @ $101.75 | $408K | −9.4% of holding | +4.2% | −7.2% | 38,784 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | Sundaram Mani | officer | Sale | 1,722 @ $98.58 | $170K | −7.4% of holding | +13.7% | −10.1% | 21,647 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-05 | Sundaram Mani | officer | Sale | 3,186 @ $101.90 | $325K | −13.8% of holding | +16.5% | −8.6% | 19,923 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | MILLER JON | director | Sale | 11,000 @ $102.67 | $1.1M | −32.5% of holding | +18.6% | −10.2% | 22,806 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | Sundaram Mani | officer | Sale | 5,562 @ $100.96 | $562K | −19.5% of holding | +18.6% | −10.2% | 23,003 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | Ranganathan Madhu | director | Sale | 3,131 @ $102.00 | $319K | −25.5% of holding | +18.6% | −10.2% | 9,160 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | Sundaram Mani | officer | Sale | 2,510 @ $101.59 | $255K | −10.9% of holding | +18.6% | −10.2% | 20,493 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | Sundaram Mani | officer | Sale | 570 @ $102.58 | $58K | −2.8% of holding | +18.6% | −10.2% | 19,923 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Karon Adam | officer | Sale | 4,728 @ $96.91 | $458K | −20.6% of holding | +22.6% | −1.1% | 18,187 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-25 | Howell Laura | officer | Sale | 11,273 @ $100.14 | $1.1M | −47.3% of holding | +23.9% | −3.1% | 12,559 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Ahola Aaron | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $98.66 | $740K | −23.4% of holding | +23.2% | −6.4% | 24,614 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-13 | Blumofe Robert | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $108.00 | $378K | −19.4% of holding | −3.7% | −3.9% | 14,574 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-22 | Blumofe Robert | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $97.00 | $340K | −16.2% of holding | +2.7% | +11.1% | 18,074 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Joseph Paul C | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $90.17 | $451K | −22.2% of holding | +19.8% | +26.8% | 17,513 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-02 | Karon Adam | officer | Sale | 3,320 @ $87.30 | $290K | −29.9% of holding | +6.9% | +24.4% | 7,785 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-15 | McGowan Edward J | officer | Sale | 6,560 @ $88.03 | $577K | −28.5% of holding | +3.8% | +38.3% | 16,442 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Sundaram Mani | officer | Sale | 10,438 @ $89.25 | $932K | −43.5% of holding | −1.1% | +71.3% | 13,550 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-17 | Joseph Paul C | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $87.69 | $438K | −18.3% of holding | −0.9% | +51.8% | 22,349 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-14 | Blumofe Robert | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $87.68 | $263K | −12.3% of holding | −0.4% | +52.3% | 21,410 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-07 | Blumofe Robert | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $86.00 | $301K | −12.5% of holding | +0.5% | +68.0% | 24,410 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-15 | Joseph Paul C | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $76.65 | $383K | −15.5% of holding | −3.6% | +36.3% | 27,349 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-22 | Blumofe Robert | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $77.00 | $231K | −9.7% of holding | −6.1% | +21.8% | 27,910 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-20 | Ahola Aaron | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $75.76 | $303K | −15.9% of holding | −4.0% | +15.1% | 21,211 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-11 | LEIGHTON F THOMSON | director | Purchase | 47,924 @ $72.30 | $3.5M | +2.0% of holding | +6.1% | +24.2% | 2,430,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
264 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Howell Laura | officer | Withheld for tax | 108 | 16,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Howell Laura | officer | Option exercise | 323 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Howell Laura | officer | Option exercise | 323 | 16,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Howell Laura | officer | Option exercise | 323 | 16,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Howell Laura | officer | Option exercise | 323 | 16,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Howell Laura | officer | Withheld for tax | 95 | 16,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Howell Laura | officer | Option exercise | 322 | 323 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Howell Laura | officer | Option exercise | 322 | 16,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Howell Laura | officer | Option exercise | 322 | 16,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | HESSE DANIEL | director | Option exercise | 2,336 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | HESSE DANIEL | director | Option exercise | 2,336 | 23,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | HESSE DANIEL | director | Option exercise | 2,336 | 23,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | MILLER JON | director | Option exercise | 3,547 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Burger Bas | director | Option exercise | 3,028 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Akella Janaki | director | Option exercise | 3,028 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Burger Bas | director | Option exercise | 3,028 | 3,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Akella Janaki | director | Option exercise | 3,028 | 3,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | MILLER JON | director | Option exercise | 3,547 | 26,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Burger Bas | director | Option exercise | 3,028 | 3,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | MILLER JON | director | Option exercise | 3,547 | 26,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Akella Janaki | director | Option exercise | 3,028 | 3,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Killalea Peter Thomas | director | Award / grant | 1,706 | 1,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Akella Janaki | director | Award / grant | 1,706 | 1,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Brown Marianne Catherine | director | Award / grant | 1,892 | 1,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Burger Bas | director | Award / grant | 1,706 | 1,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Ranganathan Madhu | director | Award / grant | 1,892 | 1,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | Bowen Sharon | director | Award / grant | 1,892 | 1,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | MILLER JON | director | Award / grant | 1,892 | 1,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | HESSE DANIEL | director | Award / grant | 2,172 | 2,172 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Howell Laura | officer | Withheld for tax | 95 | 16,140 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Howell Laura | officer | Option exercise | 322 | 645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Howell Laura | officer | Option exercise | 322 | 16,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Howell Laura | officer | Option exercise | 322 | 16,235 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | LEIGHTON F THOMSON | director | Withheld for tax | 11,292 | 97,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Karon Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,270 | 38,332 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | McGowan Edward J | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,356 | 52,529 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Joseph Paul C | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,227 | 39,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Sundaram Mani | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,227 | 23,369 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Williams Anthony P | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,119 | 37,064 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Salem-Jackson Kim | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,797 | 61,371 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2025-08-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | sale | 2025-07-16 | 2025-06-03 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-06-22 | 2025-05-12 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | purchase | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-07 | $15–50K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | purchase | 2025-04-11 | 2025-03-31 | $15–50K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-03-09 | 2025-02-24 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-26 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.