Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.41 · now $10.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AKA has typically landed between $6.71 and $15.27 — a range of −35.5% to +46.7% from the issuance price $10.41.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,230 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-09-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AKA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.41 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.09 (-3.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.64–$11.54
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.71–$15.27
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2023-03-08 | −68.8% | −68.8% | +0.0% |
| 2023-03-09 | −68.8% | −68.8% | +0.0% |
| 2023-03-07 | −66.6% | −66.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-04-15 | +147.0% | −4.8% | +147.0% |
| 2024-04-16 | +136.0% | −10.6% | +136.0% |
| 2024-04-12 | +131.8% | −4.9% | +131.8% |
1,230 overlapping windows · 2021-09-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-12 | Eskenazi Ilene | director | Sale | 12,201 @ $12.89 | $157K | −67.6% of holding | −5.5% | −28.8% | 5,852 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Eskenazi Ilene | director | Sale | 2,749 @ $11.38 | $31K | −13.1% of holding | −7.3% | −9.7% | 18,163 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
20 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Cassidy Carrie | director | Award / grant | 2,778 | 2,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | WHITE KENNETH C. | officer | Award / grant | 6,250 | 58,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | LONG CIARAN JOSEPH | officer | Award / grant | 8,750 | 98,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | TREMBLEY MICHAEL FRANK | officer | Award / grant | 6,250 | 70,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | GHOSH SOURAV | director | Award / grant | 2,778 | 23,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Thompson Kelly Ann | director | Award / grant | 2,778 | 23,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Eskenazi Ilene | director | Award / grant | 2,778 | 8,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | MCCORMICK MYLES B | director | Award / grant | 2,778 | 31,048 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | Grant Kevin J. | officer | Award / grant | 6,250 | 87,010 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | WHITE KENNETH C. | officer | Award / grant | 15,000 | 52,687 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | LONG CIARAN JOSEPH | officer | Award / grant | 17,500 | 89,850 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Thompson Kelly Ann | director | Award / grant | 5,852 | 20,251 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Grant Kevin J. | officer | Award / grant | 17,500 | 80,760 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | TREMBLEY MICHAEL FRANK | officer | Award / grant | 17,500 | 64,616 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | MCCORMICK MYLES B | director | Award / grant | 5,852 | 28,270 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | Eskenazi Ilene | director | Award / grant | 5,852 | 20,912 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-18 | GHOSH SOURAV | director | Award / grant | 5,852 | 20,251 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-13 | Grant Kevin J. | officer | Award / grant | 20,439 | 62,427 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-13 | LONG CIARAN JOSEPH | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-13 | LONG CIARAN JOSEPH | officer | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.