Issued 2026-09-16 at $243.78 · now $243.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AJG has typically landed between $220.48 and $268.96 — a range of −9.6% to +10.3% from the issuance price $243.78.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($243.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AJG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $243.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $243.78 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $248.06 (+1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $237.61–$258.52
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $220.48–$268.96
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-19 | −36.7% | −36.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −36.4% | −36.4% | +0.0% |
| 2009-01-30 | −36.1% | −36.1% | +2.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-30 | +34.6% | +0.0% | +34.6% |
| 2009-03-31 | +32.2% | −0.8% | +32.2% |
| 2009-04-08 | +28.0% | +0.0% | +30.4% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$63.7B
market cap
$6.19
EPS (TTM)
40.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$13.9B
'20'25
Net income$1.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr10.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr6.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.60
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$375.09
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$101.40
- Analyst target · range $225.00–$300.00$289.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$243.78
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
+0.1%
n=18
Feb
74%
+0.5%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.2%
n=19
Apr
58%
+3.0%
n=19
May
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Jun
63%
+1.4%
n=19
Jul
74%
+3.1%
n=19
Aug
74%
+1.2%
n=19
Sep
53%
+0.3%
n=19
Oct
56%
+1.8%
n=18
Nov
78%
+2.9%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.1%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Hudson Scott R | officer | Sale | 12,000 @ $264.13 | $3.2M | −11.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 90,262 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Bay Walter D. | officer | Sale | 12,000 @ $270.08 | $3.2M | −14.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 71,292 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Mead Christopher E | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $257.02 | $900K | −13.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,223 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | CARY RICHARD C | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $206.00 | $618K | −5.9% of holding | +24.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,819 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Hudson Scott R | officer | Sale | 3,800 @ $227.57 | $865K | −4.2% of holding | −2.9% | +0.1% | 85,920 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Mead Christopher E | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $227.12 | $908K | −17.2% of holding | −1.2% | +2.5% | 19,306 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | GALLAGHER J PATRICK JR | director | Sale | 27,450 @ $230.31 | $6.3M | −22.2% of holding | −0.3% | +2.7% | 96,455 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Mead Christopher E | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $258.11 | $1.0M | −18.8% of holding | −2.0% | −18.6% | 17,327 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-22 | HOWELL DOUGLAS K | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $258.05 | $1.3M | −5.0% of holding | −2.6% | −22.9% | 95,777 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Bay Walter D. | officer | Sale | 15,850 @ $255.00 | $4.0M | −16.6% of holding | −2.4% | −20.6% | 79,549 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Mead Christopher E | officer | Sale | 1,250 @ $250.74 | $313K | −6.7% of holding | −1.5% | −33.4% | 17,327 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | CARY RICHARD C | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $261.00 | $1.6M | −10.6% of holding | −4.5% | −32.5% | 50,668 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Pesch Michael Robert | officer | Purchase | 1,874 @ $246.82 | $463K | +4.9% of holding | +0.9% | −26.5% | 40,261 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-03 | Pesch Michael Robert | officer | Purchase | 989 @ $247.41 | $245K | +2.5% of holding | +0.9% | −26.5% | 41,250 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-03 | Pesch Michael Robert | officer | Purchase | 599 @ $248.72 | $149K | +1.5% of holding | +0.9% | −26.5% | 41,849 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-03 | Pesch Michael Robert | officer | Purchase | 538 @ $245.85 | $132K | +1.4% of holding | +0.9% | −26.5% | 38,387 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-22 | HOWELL DOUGLAS K | officer | Sale | 5,900 @ $299.44 | $1.8M | −5.4% of holding | −7.7% | −26.0% | 102,877 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | HOWELL DOUGLAS K | officer | Sale | 2,100 @ $299.84 | $630K | −2.0% of holding | −7.7% | −26.0% | 100,777 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | HOWELL DOUGLAS K | officer | Sale | 3,400 @ $299.71 | $1.0M | −3.0% of holding | −8.0% | −26.5% | 108,777 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | HOWELL DOUGLAS K | officer | Sale | 2,600 @ $298.69 | $777K | −2.3% of holding | −8.0% | −26.5% | 112,177 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | HOWELL DOUGLAS K | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $299.78 | $899K | −2.5% of holding | −1.0% | −33.9% | 114,777 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Hudson Scott R | officer | Sale | 7,600 @ $297.51 | $2.3M | −8.1% of holding | +0.2% | −33.8% | 85,920 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-08 | Hudson Scott R | officer | Sale | 5,255 @ $297.73 | $1.6M | −5.8% of holding | +0.2% | −33.8% | 85,920 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | CARY RICHARD C | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $306.00 | $1.2M | −6.6% of holding | −6.7% | −37.5% | 56,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Pesch Michael Robert | officer | Purchase | 59 @ $318.37 | $19K | ownership Δ n/a | −8.4% | −33.5% | 59 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Hudson Scott R | officer | Sale | 10,500 @ $337.17 | $3.5M | −10.3% of holding | −7.1% | −40.3% | 91,175 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Pietrucha Susan E | officer | Sale | 13,500 @ $344.13 | $4.6M | −53.1% of holding | −8.0% | −36.8% | 11,941 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | JOHNSON DAVID S | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $342.04 | $342K | −2.2% of holding | −8.0% | −37.9% | 45,323 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | CARY RICHARD C | officer | Sale | 12,000 @ $339.51 | $4.1M | −16.9% of holding | −9.8% | −48.1% | 59,029 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-21 | Hudson Scott R | officer | Sale | 7,510 @ $333.59 | $2.5M | −7.7% of holding | +6.2% | −28.1% | 90,020 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
270 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | GALLAGHER J PATRICK JR | director | Gift | 49,988 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Gallagher Patrick Murphy | officer | Gift | 49,988 | 148,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Hudson Scott R | officer | Option exercise | 12,000 | 102,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Hudson Scott R | officer | Option exercise | 12,000 | 12,370 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Miskel Christopher C. | director | Award / grant | 153 | 10,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Mead Christopher E | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 25,723 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Mead Christopher E | officer | Option exercise | 3,500 | 7,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Bloom Mark H. | officer | Withheld for tax | 607 | 4,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Bloom Mark H. | officer | Option exercise | 1,280 | 5,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | Bloom Mark H. | officer | Option exercise | 1,280 | 6,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Gallagher Patrick Murphy | officer | Gift | 23,800 | 53,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Jain Vishal | officer | Option exercise | 2,163 | 68,903 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Pesch Michael Robert | officer | Option exercise | 356 | 44,833 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | GALLAGHER THOMAS JOSEPH | officer | Option exercise | 352 | 323,743 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Pesch Michael Robert | officer | Option exercise | 356 | 6,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | GALLAGHER THOMAS JOSEPH | officer | Option exercise | 352 | 13,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Jain Vishal | officer | Option exercise | 2,163 | 9,726 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | HOWELL DOUGLAS K | officer | Discretionary | 12,954 | 185,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | JOHNSON DAVID S | director | Award / grant | 237 | 47,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Miskel Christopher C. | director | Award / grant | 194 | 10,642 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Gallagher Patrick Murphy | officer | Gift | 14,698 | 98,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | GALLAGHER J PATRICK JR | director | Gift | 14,698 | 109,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | ROSENTHAL NORMAN L | director | Award / grant | 1,110 | 43,327 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | JOHNSON DAVID S | director | Award / grant | 1,110 | 47,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Caplan Deborah H | director | Award / grant | 1,110 | 2,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Coldman David John | director | Award / grant | 1,110 | 16,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Clarke Teresa Hillary | director | Award / grant | 1,110 | 5,567 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | NICOLETTI RALPH J | director | Award / grant | 1,110 | 18,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Miskel Christopher C. | director | Award / grant | 1,110 | 10,448 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Harries Richard de Winton Wilkin | director | Award / grant | 1,110 | 2,413 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | GALLAGHER J PATRICK JR | director | Option exercise | 5,346 | 126,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | GALLAGHER J PATRICK JR | director | Withheld for tax | 2,369 | 123,962 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bay Walter D. | officer | Option exercise | 1,415 | 83,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Bay Walter D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 627 | 83,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | CARY RICHARD C | officer | Option exercise | 472 | 50,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | CARY RICHARD C | officer | Withheld for tax | 139 | 50,819 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | HOWELL DOUGLAS K | officer | Withheld for tax | 76 | 106,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | GALLAGHER THOMAS JOSEPH | officer | Option exercise | 76 | 323,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | GALLAGHER THOMAS JOSEPH | officer | Withheld for tax | 76 | 323,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | HOWELL DOUGLAS K | officer | Option exercise | 76 | 106,786 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-08 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-20 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $15–50K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-05-04 | 2026-04-06 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-05-04 | 2026-04-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.