AIZAssurant, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $283.56 · now $283.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AIZ has typically landed between $258.44 and $314.95 — a range of −8.9% to +11.1% from the issuance price $283.56.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($283.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AIZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $283.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$258.44worst · -8.9%$314.95best · +11.1%
  • now $283.56 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $287.01 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $275.45–$298.57
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $258.44–$314.95
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-10-22−66.3%−66.3%+0.0%
2008-10-21−61.9%−61.9%+0.0%
2008-10-20−59.2%−59.2%+0.3%
3 best
2008-11-20+107.6%+0.0%+117.2%
2008-11-19+75.9%−19.0%+75.9%
2008-11-21+74.6%+0.0%+84.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$13.7B
market cap
$19.68
EPS (TTM)
14.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$12.8B
'20'25
Net income$873M
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr6.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr14.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.38
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $283.56$182.62$332.75
  • DCF (intrinsic)$192.97
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$322.40
  • Analyst target · range $246.00–$310.00$295.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$283.56

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+0.0%
n=18
Feb
42%
−1.1%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.0%
n=19
Apr
84%
+3.0%
n=19
May
58%
+0.5%
n=19
Jun
53%
+1.4%
n=19
Jul
74%
+2.6%
n=19
Aug
58%
+3.3%
n=19
Sep
74%
+1.4%
n=19
Oct
56%
−3.2%
n=18
Nov
67%
+2.1%
n=18
Dec
61%
+2.9%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$302$2032026-08-06: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Biju Nair2026-06-22: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Lonergan Robert2026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $511K — DiRienzo Dimitry2026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $6.4M — MEIER KEITH2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $504K — Rosenblum Jay2026-03-20: 2 insider sales, $554K — Sengupta Subhashish, DiRienzo Dimitry2026-03-19: 1 insider sale, $4K — Sengupta Subhashish2025-10-03: 2 insider sales, $3.0M — Demmings Keith …2025-08-12: 1 insider sale, $813K — Rosenblum Jay2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.0M2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $3.0M2026-03: 3 open-market sales, $558K2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $7.4M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $1.8M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.2M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Biju Nair — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lonergan Robert — Sale on 2026-06-22, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer DiRienzo Dimitry — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer MEIER KEITH — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Rosenblum Jay — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sengupta Subhashish — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer DiRienzo Dimitry — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Sengupta Subhashish — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Demmings Keith — Sale on 2025-10-03, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Demmings Keith — Sale on 2025-10-03, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Rosenblum Jay — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-06Biju NairofficerSale3,931 @ $302.46$1.2M−14.0% of holding−3.8%not yet — horizon still open24,247Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-22Lonergan RobertofficerSale7,000 @ $262.71$1.8M−20.4% of holding+4.0%not yet — horizon still open27,374Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-26DiRienzo DimitryofficerSale2,000 @ $255.68$511K−42.2% of holding+4.1%not yet — horizon still open2,741Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15MEIER KEITHofficerSale25,000 @ $254.31$6.4M−57.4% of holding+1.2%not yet — horizon still open18,552Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-14Rosenblum JayofficerSale2,000 @ $251.77$504K−13.5% of holding+2.1%not yet — horizon still open12,764Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-20Sengupta SubhashishofficerSale1,880 @ $210.53$396K−39.4% of holding−1.0%not yet — horizon still open2,895Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-20DiRienzo DimitryofficerSale750 @ $210.98$158K−13.7% of holding−1.0%not yet — horizon still open4,741Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-19Sengupta SubhashishofficerSale20 @ $215.00$4K−0.4% of holding−0.9%not yet — horizon still open4,775Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-03Demmings KeithdirectorSale13,420 @ $220.51$3.0M−13.6% of holding−5.7%+1.2%84,952Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-03Demmings KeithdirectorSale305 @ $221.03$67K−0.4% of holding−5.7%+1.2%84,647Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-12Rosenblum JayofficerSale3,900 @ $208.53$813K−33.1% of holding−0.1%−4.4%7,875Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-08DiRienzo DimitryofficerSale950 @ $204.96$195K−23.3% of holding+2.2%+7.1%3,135Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Rosenblum JayofficerSale1,000 @ $201.93$202K−7.8% of holding−2.2%+0.1%11,775Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-20Lonergan RobertofficerSale3,500 @ $212.39$743K−12.0% of holding−4.4%−18.8%25,731Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-20DiRienzo DimitryofficerSale1,650 @ $213.03$352K−28.8% of holding−4.4%−18.8%4,085Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-19Biju NairofficerSale1,870 @ $201.27$376K−9.0% of holding+13.7%+3.3%18,838Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-19Biju NairofficerSale1,130 @ $201.87$228K−6.0% of holding+13.7%+3.3%17,708Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

115 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Demmings KeithdirectorGift3,500133,170Form 4
2026-05-22Reilly Paul JdirectorAward / grant66822,155Form 4
2026-05-22Redzic OgnjendirectorAward / grant6688,136Form 4
2026-05-22Granat Sari BethdirectorAward / grant6684,624Form 4
2026-05-22EDELMAN HARRIETdirectorAward / grant66811,114Form 4
2026-05-22WARREN KEVIN MdirectorAward / grant6682,315Form 4
2026-05-22ROSEN ELAINEdirectorAward / grant66827,686Form 4
2026-05-22Blake Lynn S.directorAward / grant668668Form 4
2026-05-22Basu RajivdirectorAward / grant6683,731Form 4
2026-05-22Carter J Braxton IIdirectorAward / grant6688,961Form 4
2026-04-01Biju NairofficerWithheld for tax1,10828,143Form 4
2026-04-01Lumsden RyanofficerWithheld for tax55717,298Form 4
2026-04-01Sengupta SubhashishofficerWithheld for tax1492,746Form 4
2026-03-16Demmings KeithdirectorWithheld for tax42,338125,381Form 4
2026-03-16MEIER KEITHofficerWithheld for tax11,71740,063Form 4
2026-03-16Demmings KeithdirectorAward / grant11,254136,635Form 4
2026-03-16Campbell Michael P.officerWithheld for tax7,68725,350Form 4
2026-03-16Biju NairofficerWithheld for tax7,38527,090Form 4
2026-03-16Lonergan RobertofficerWithheld for tax6,69932,531Form 4
2026-03-16Rosenblum JayofficerWithheld for tax6,19613,415Form 4
2026-03-16DiRienzo DimitryofficerWithheld for tax1,3954,983Form 4
2026-03-16Sengupta SubhashishofficerWithheld for tax1,2393,951Form 4
2026-03-16Lumsden RyanofficerWithheld for tax1,03317,011Form 4
2026-03-16Strickland Jeffrey A.officerWithheld for tax7225,152Form 4
2026-03-16Campbell Michael P.officerAward / grant2,09327,443Form 4
2026-03-16Rosenblum JayofficerAward / grant11,73619,611Form 4
2026-03-16MEIER KEITHofficerAward / grant22,35551,780Form 4
2026-03-16Rosenblum JayofficerAward / grant1,34914,764Form 4
2026-03-16Lumsden RyanofficerAward / grant2,18918,044Form 4
2026-03-16Lumsden RyanofficerAward / grant84417,855Form 4
2026-03-16Biju NairofficerAward / grant14,94734,475Form 4
2026-03-16Lonergan RobertofficerAward / grant1,84334,374Form 4
2026-03-16Biju NairofficerAward / grant2,16129,251Form 4
2026-03-16Sengupta SubhashishofficerAward / grant2,0765,190Form 4
2026-03-16Lonergan RobertofficerAward / grant13,41439,230Form 4
2026-03-16Sengupta SubhashishofficerAward / grant8444,795Form 4
2026-03-16Strickland Jeffrey A.officerAward / grant1,7115,874Form 4
2026-03-16Strickland Jeffrey A.officerAward / grant8445,996Form 4
2026-03-16DiRienzo DimitryofficerAward / grant5085,491Form 4
2026-03-16DiRienzo DimitryofficerAward / grant3,3876,378Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-11-082024-10-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-10-062023-09-06$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2020-05-062020-03-30$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2020-05-062020-03-30$50–100K
Kelly LoefflerSenatepurchase2020-05-012020-03-20$1–15K
Kelly LoefflerSenatepurchase2020-05-012020-03-18$250–500K
Kelly LoefflerSenatesale2020-05-012020-04-07$250–500K
Kelly LoefflerSenatepurchase2020-05-012020-04-07$50–100K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.