AIVApartment Investment and Management Companyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.25 · now $2.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AIV has typically landed between $1.96 and $2.52 — a range of −12.8% to +12.0% from the issuance price $2.25.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AIV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.25 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.96worst · -12.8%$2.52best · +12.0%
  • now $2.25 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.25 (+0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.14–$2.36
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.96–$2.52
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−66.7%−66.7%+0.0%
2008-09-30−60.6%−66.6%+0.0%
2008-09-25−59.1%−59.1%+5.6%
3 best
2008-11-20+67.0%+0.0%+77.4%
2009-07-09+59.4%−1.2%+59.4%
2009-04-08+56.6%−2.2%+56.6%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
−0.9%
n=18
Feb
42%
−2.1%
n=19
Mar
74%
+3.1%
n=19
Apr
58%
+3.1%
n=19
May
58%
+2.4%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.3%
n=19
Jul
74%
+4.2%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.4%
n=19
Sep
42%
−2.4%
n=19
Oct
50%
−2.3%
n=18
Nov
56%
+2.0%
n=18
Dec
72%
+5.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$3$2↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

84 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-01Dreyer KellieofficerWithheld for tax4,95392,782Form 4
2026-04-15Powell Wesley WilliamdirectorWithheld for tax91,488631,648Form 4
2026-04-15Stanfield LynnofficerWithheld for tax54,236440,323Form 4
2026-04-15Johnson JenniferofficerWithheld for tax38,497291,355Form 4
2026-02-01Powell Wesley WilliamdirectorWithheld for tax100,170723,136Form 4
2026-02-01Stanfield LynnofficerWithheld for tax17,649494,559Form 4
2026-02-01Johnson JenniferofficerWithheld for tax12,977329,852Form 4
2026-02-01Dreyer KellieofficerWithheld for tax3,31397,735Form 4
2026-01-31Stanfield LynnofficerWithheld for tax2,673512,208Form 4
2026-01-31Johnson JenniferofficerWithheld for tax1,957342,829Form 4
2026-01-31Dreyer KellieofficerWithheld for tax603101,048Form 4
2026-01-28Powell Wesley WilliamdirectorWithheld for tax10,569823,306Form 4
2026-01-28Stanfield LynnofficerWithheld for tax4,266514,881Form 4
2026-01-28Johnson JenniferofficerWithheld for tax2,283344,786Form 4
2026-01-28Dreyer KellieofficerWithheld for tax539101,651Form 4
2026-01-28Powell Wesley WilliamdirectorAward / grant215,420833,875Form 4
2026-01-28Dreyer KellieofficerAward / grant7,862102,190Form 4
2026-01-28Johnson JenniferofficerAward / grant35,904347,069Form 4
2026-01-28Dreyer KellieofficerAward / grant7,862102,190Form 4
2026-01-28Johnson JenniferofficerAward / grant35,904347,069Form 4
2026-01-28Stanfield LynnofficerAward / grant48,829519,147Form 4
2026-01-28Powell Wesley WilliamdirectorAward / grant215,420833,875Form 4
2026-01-28Stanfield LynnofficerAward / grant48,829519,147Form 4
2025-10-16Stanfield LynnofficerCode L5702,031Form 4
2025-10-16Powell Wesley WilliamdirectorCode L1968Form 4
2025-08-01Dreyer KellieofficerWithheld for tax2,12494,328Form 4
2025-04-15Powell Wesley WilliamdirectorWithheld for tax89,814618,455Form 4
2025-04-15Stanfield LynnofficerWithheld for tax54,222470,318Form 4
2025-04-15Johnson JenniferofficerWithheld for tax38,497311,165Form 4
2025-02-20Dreyer KellieofficerAward / grant11,22496,452Form 4
2025-02-20Dreyer KellieofficerAward / grant11,22496,452Form 4
2025-02-02Powell Wesley WilliamdirectorWithheld for tax58,218708,269Form 4
2025-02-02Stanfield LynnofficerWithheld for tax30,578524,540Form 4
2025-02-02Johnson JenniferofficerWithheld for tax18,309349,662Form 4
2025-02-02Dreyer KellieofficerWithheld for tax2,63985,228Form 4
2025-02-01Stanfield LynnofficerWithheld for tax5,495555,118Form 4
2025-02-01Johnson JenniferofficerWithheld for tax2,655367,971Form 4
2025-02-01Dreyer KellieofficerWithheld for tax60287,867Form 4
2025-01-31Stanfield LynnofficerWithheld for tax3,157560,613Form 4
2025-01-31Johnson JenniferofficerWithheld for tax1,966370,626Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Patrick ToomeySenateexchange2020-12-292020-12-15$15–50K
Patrick ToomeySenatepurchase2020-12-292020-11-30$1–15K
Donna ShalalaHousesale2020-04-272019-06-24$1–15K
Donna ShalalaHousepurchase2020-04-272019-04-03$1–15K
Thad CochranSenatesale2017-01-122016-12-20$1–15K
Thad CochranSenatepurchase2017-01-122016-11-29$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.