AITApplied Industrial Technologies, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $315.11 · now $315.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AIT has typically landed between $286.50 and $359.51 — a range of −9.1% to +14.1% from the issuance price $315.11.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($315.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AIT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $315.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$286.5worst · -9.1%$359.51best · +14.1%
  • now $315.11 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $321.89 (+2.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $307.25–$336.54
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $286.5–$359.51
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−52.7%−52.7%+0.0%
2020-02-20−48.0%−52.7%+0.0%
2020-02-21−46.0%−52.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+46.7%+0.0%+62.3%
2016-10-25+37.3%+0.0%+37.3%
2009-03-30+35.4%+0.0%+35.4%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.5%
n=18
Feb
63%
+2.4%
n=19
Mar
68%
+1.1%
n=19
Apr
58%
+2.9%
n=19
May
42%
+0.6%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.4%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.4%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Sep
53%
+0.5%
n=19
Oct
50%
+1.9%
n=18
Nov
67%
+4.8%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$362$2402026-08-26: 1 insider sale, $648K — Wallace Peter C2026-08-18: 1 insider sale, $643K — Wells David K.2026-06-18: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Andrews Madhuri A2026-05-05: 2 insider sales, $2.4M — Hoffner Warren E III …2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Wallace Peter C2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Hoffner Warren E III2026-02-05: 2 insider sales, $2.7M — Vasquez Jason W, Hoffner Warren E III2026-02-04: 5 insider sales, $5.5M — Schrimsher Neil A …2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $2.3M — Loring Kurt W.2025-08-21: 3 insider sales, $8.9M — Schrimsher Neil A, Vasquez Jason W …2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $11.2M2026-02: 9 open-market sales, $10.8M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $2.4M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $1.3M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.3M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Wallace Peter C — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Wells David K. — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Andrews Madhuri A — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Hoffner Warren E III — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoffner Warren E III — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Wallace Peter C — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoffner Warren E III — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Vasquez Jason W — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hoffner Warren E III — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Schrimsher Neil A — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Schrimsher Neil A — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Schrimsher Neil A — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Schrimsher Neil A — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Schrimsher Neil A — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Loring Kurt W. — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Schrimsher Neil A — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Vasquez Jason W — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Vasquez Jason W — Sale on 2025-08-21, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-26Wallace Peter CdirectorSale1,904 @ $340.45$648K−7.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open22,859Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Wells David K.officerSale1,812 @ $355.10$643K−5.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open32,050Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-18Andrews Madhuri AdirectorSale3,845 @ $329.89$1.3M−43.7% of holding+0.7%not yet — horizon still open4,951Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-05Hoffner Warren E IIIofficerSale4,000 @ $306.35$1.2M−8.2% of holding−1.8%not yet — horizon still open44,751Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05Hoffner Warren E IIIofficerSale4,000 @ $305.72$1.2M−8.9% of holding−1.8%not yet — horizon still open40,751Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26Wallace Peter CdirectorSale5,000 @ $285.03$1.4M−17.1% of holding−0.3%+1.1%24,179Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06Hoffner Warren E IIIofficerSale4,000 @ $292.64$1.2M−7.6% of holding−7.3%+6.3%48,751Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-05Vasquez Jason WofficerSale5,447 @ $287.87$1.6M−27.3% of holding−6.7%+3.7%14,491Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05Hoffner Warren E IIIofficerSale4,000 @ $288.62$1.2M−7.0% of holding−6.7%+3.7%52,751Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04Schrimsher Neil AdirectorSale8,634 @ $284.49$2.5M−5.8% of holding−5.5%+5.4%141,101Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04Schrimsher Neil AdirectorSale4,544 @ $287.51$1.3M−3.3% of holding−5.5%+5.4%131,821Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04Schrimsher Neil AdirectorSale2,996 @ $286.45$858K−2.1% of holding−5.5%+5.4%136,365Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04Schrimsher Neil AdirectorSale1,740 @ $285.39$497K−1.2% of holding−5.5%+5.4%139,361Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04Schrimsher Neil AdirectorSale1,293 @ $288.29$373K−1.0% of holding−5.5%+5.4%130,528Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-22Loring Kurt W.officerSale8,523 @ $267.06$2.3M−30.7% of holding−3.9%−1.1%19,273Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-21Schrimsher Neil AdirectorSale26,671 @ $262.46$7.0M−15.1% of holding−2.6%+0.1%149,735Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-21Vasquez Jason WofficerSale5,447 @ $260.40$1.4M−27.3% of holding−2.6%+0.1%14,491Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-21Vasquez Jason WofficerSale2,019 @ $259.22$523K−9.2% of holding−2.6%+0.1%19,938Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-25Vasquez Jason WofficerSale4,475 @ $248.10$1.1M−17.1% of holding−1.9%−1.0%21,697Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Schrimsher Neil AdirectorSale10,680 @ $269.18$2.9M−5.8% of holding−7.2%−7.2%173,606Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

102 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18Vasquez Jason WofficerWithheld for tax2,77420,259Form 4
2026-08-18Vasquez Jason WofficerOption exercise7,70023,033Form 4
2026-08-18Vasquez Jason WofficerOption exercise7,7007,700Form 4
2026-08-11Schrimsher Neil AdirectorWithheld for tax4,876136,893Form 4
2026-08-11Wells David K.officerWithheld for tax88733,862Form 4
2026-08-11Loring Kurt W.officerWithheld for tax62819,992Form 4
2026-08-11Ploetz Jon SofficerWithheld for tax4503,953Form 4
2026-08-11Vasquez Jason WofficerWithheld for tax34115,333Form 4
2026-08-11Hoffner Warren E IIIofficerWithheld for tax32041,775Form 4
2026-08-11Wells David K.officerAward / grant2,1532,153Form 4
2026-08-11Vasquez Jason WofficerAward / grant37514,646Form 4
2026-08-11Vasquez Jason WofficerAward / grant1,02815,674Form 4
2026-08-11Vasquez Jason WofficerAward / grant1,2401,240Form 4
2026-08-11Ploetz Jon SofficerAward / grant3753,380Form 4
2026-08-11Ploetz Jon SofficerAward / grant1,0234,403Form 4
2026-08-11Ploetz Jon SofficerAward / grant1,2401,240Form 4
2026-08-11TOMCZIK PAMELA JdirectorAward / grant234234Form 4
2026-08-11Wagner Richard MofficerAward / grant2151,203Form 4
2026-08-11Loring Kurt W.officerAward / grant45819,326Form 4
2026-08-11Schrimsher Neil AdirectorAward / grant3,089131,456Form 4
2026-08-11Schrimsher Neil AdirectorAward / grant10,313141,769Form 4
2026-08-11Schrimsher Neil AdirectorAward / grant10,21710,217Form 4
2026-08-11Loring Kurt W.officerAward / grant1,29420,620Form 4
2026-08-11Loring Kurt W.officerAward / grant1,5141,514Form 4
2026-08-11Hoffner Warren E IIIofficerAward / grant39440,938Form 4
2026-08-11Hoffner Warren E IIIofficerAward / grant1,15742,095Form 4
2026-08-11Hoffner Warren E IIIofficerAward / grant1,3051,305Form 4
2026-08-11Wells David K.officerAward / grant65132,879Form 4
2026-08-11Wells David K.officerAward / grant1,87034,749Form 4
2026-08-11Wagner Richard MofficerAward / grant1,3781,378Form 4
2026-08-08Schrimsher Neil AdirectorWithheld for tax2,161128,367Form 4
2026-08-08Wells David K.officerWithheld for tax57332,228Form 4
2026-08-08Loring Kurt W.officerWithheld for tax40518,868Form 4
2026-08-08Ploetz Jon SofficerWithheld for tax2913,005Form 4
2026-08-08Vasquez Jason WofficerWithheld for tax22014,271Form 4
2026-08-08Hoffner Warren E IIIofficerWithheld for tax20740,544Form 4
2026-07-12Wallace Peter CdirectorOther acquisition5842,674Form 4
2026-07-12Wallace Peter CdirectorOther acquisition58424,763Form 4
2026-06-30Wallace Peter CdirectorAward / grant53,258Form 4
2026-04-24Ploetz Jon SofficerWithheld for tax1463,296Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-05-042026-04-09$50–100K
Markwayne MullinSenatesale2026-03-022026-02-04$1–15K
Markwayne MullinSenatesale2026-01-132025-12-18$15–50K
Markwayne MullinSenatesale2026-01-132025-12-18$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-21$1–15K
Markwayne MullinSenatepurchase2025-02-272025-02-03$1–15K
Markwayne MullinSenatepurchase2025-01-312025-01-02$15–50K
Markwayne MullinSenatepurchase2025-01-312025-01-02$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-12-162024-11-22$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-12-162024-11-22$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-09-162024-08-26$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-09-162024-08-26$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2023-12-092023-11-01$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousepurchase2023-12-092023-11-01$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.