Issued 2026-09-16 at $29.80 · now $29.80 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AIRT has typically landed between $24.57 and $37.59 — a range of −17.6% to +26.1% from the issuance price $29.80.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($29.80) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AIRT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $29.8 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $29.8 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $29.72 (-0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $27.39–$32.06
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $24.57–$37.59
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −46.9% | −47.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −46.6% | −46.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −46.4% | −46.4% | +1.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-12-18 | +131.5% | −0.7% | +156.9% |
| 2020-12-01 | +126.7% | −12.4% | +126.7% |
| 2020-11-30 | +126.4% | −12.0% | +126.4% |
5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-15 | Foudray William R | director | Purchase | 1,250 @ $18.00 | $23K | +11.1% of holding | +10.0% | +6.4% | 12,500 | Form 4 · filed 20 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
13 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-11 | Swenson Nicholas John | director | Award / grant | 4,000 | 4,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Foudray William R | director | Award / grant | 500 | 500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Swenson Travis Jacob | director | Award / grant | 500 | 500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Kennedy Tracy | officer | Award / grant | 2,000 | 2,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | THINGELSTAD JAMIE | director | Award / grant | 500 | 500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | THINGELSTAD JAMIE | director | Award / grant | 290 | 290 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | McClung Peter B. | director | Award / grant | 500 | 500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | CABILLOT RAYMOND E | director | Award / grant | 500 | 500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | THINGELSTAD JAMIE | director | Award / grant | 292 | 292 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | KOHLER GARY S | director | Award / grant | 500 | 500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-27 | Swenson Nicholas John | director | Other acquisition | 1,620 | 972,584 | Form 4 |
| 2023-08-14 | Foudray William R | director | Option exercise | 3,750 | 11,250 | Form 4 |
| 2023-08-14 | Foudray William R | director | Option exercise | 3,750 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.