Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.11 · now $2.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AIRS has typically landed between $1.28 and $3.31 — a range of −39.2% to +56.8% from the issuance price $2.11.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,203 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AIRS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $2.11 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.03 (-3.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.66–$2.41
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.28–$3.31
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-11-06 | −73.6% | −73.6% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-28 | −69.1% | −69.3% | +0.0% |
| 2025-10-24 | −68.8% | −68.8% | +2.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-23 | +140.5% | +0.0% | +140.5% |
| 2025-04-24 | +133.5% | +0.0% | +133.5% |
| 2025-04-22 | +132.0% | +0.0% | +132.0% |
1,203 overlapping windows · 2021-10-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 40,000 @ $2.54 | $102K | +0.6% of holding | +81.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,053,761 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 20,000 @ $2.60 | $52K | +0.3% of holding | +71.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,013,761 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 60,000 @ $2.93 | $176K | +0.9% of holding | +10.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,993,761 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-03 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 90,000 @ $2.82 | $254K | +1.3% of holding | −1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,933,761 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,000 @ $2.91 | $146K | +0.7% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,843,761 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,547 @ $1.13 | $7K | −100.0% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,255 @ $1.30 | $3K | +52.5% of holding | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,547 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,004 @ $0.50 | $1K | ownership Δ n/a | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,004 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 2,000 @ $0.33 | $660 | ownership Δ n/a | −12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 40,000 @ $2.77 | $111K | +0.6% of holding | −16.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,793,761 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 77,702 @ $2.64 | $205K | +1.2% of holding | −10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,753,761 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 83,000 @ $2.56 | $212K | +1.3% of holding | −8.2% | −34.6% | 6,676,059 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 105,848 @ $2.43 | $257K | +1.6% of holding | −5.6% | −38.0% | 6,592,059 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 88,000 @ $2.15 | $189K | +1.4% of holding | +16.1% | −6.4% | 6,486,211 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 45,600 @ $2.00 | $91K | +0.7% of holding | +42.4% | +18.8% | 6,398,211 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 30,000 @ $1.87 | $56K | +0.5% of holding | +76.3% | +21.4% | 6,352,611 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 80,000 @ $1.71 | $137K | +1.3% of holding | +60.3% | +26.5% | 6,322,611 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Feinstein Adam T | director | Purchase | 462,957 @ $4.00 | $1.9M | +3.4% of holding | −5.9% | −59.8% | 14,038,819 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Feinstein Adam T | director | Purchase | 387,858 @ $4.00 | $1.6M | +3.4% of holding | −5.9% | −59.8% | 11,761,462 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Feinstein Adam T | director | Purchase | 149,185 @ $4.00 | $597K | +3.4% of holding | −5.9% | −59.8% | 4,523,899 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | Rollins Aaron | director | Purchase | 2,118 @ $3.60 | $8K | +0.0% of holding | +40.0% | +4.6% | 15,146,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | Jashnani Yogesh | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $2.65 | $19K | +1.5% of holding | +91.3% | +253.9% | 464,879 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
24 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Feinstein Adam T | director | Other acquisition | 5,169,820 | 6,591,642 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chu Caroline | director | Award / grant | 100,286 | 277,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Aaron Thomas J | director | Award / grant | 100,286 | 276,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-12 | Higgins Kenneth | director | Award / grant | 100,286 | 274,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Code E | 2,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-17 | Chernett Jorey | tenPercentOwner | Code E | 2,004 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Arthur Michael J | officer | Award / grant | 68,027 | 215,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | Jashnani Yogesh | director | Award / grant | 238,095 | 696,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-08 | WADMAN BRENT R | officer | Award / grant | 55,272 | 55,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Jashnani Yogesh | director | Withheld for tax | 38,379 | 458,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Jashnani Yogesh | director | Withheld for tax | 24,217 | 496,759 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Arthur Michael J | officer | Award / grant | 147,059 | 147,059 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Jashnani Yogesh | director | Option exercise | 56,097 | 164,289 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Jashnani Yogesh | director | Option exercise | 56,097 | 520,976 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Jashnani Yogesh | director | Option exercise | 56,097 | 520,976 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | Aaron Thomas J | director | Award / grant | 58,594 | 176,580 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | Chu Caroline | director | Award / grant | 58,594 | 176,780 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | Higgins Kenneth | director | Award / grant | 58,594 | 173,780 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-18 | Jashnani Yogesh | director | Award / grant | 292,589 | 457,879 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-18 | Dean Dennis | officer | Award / grant | 78,616 | 660,668 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-18 | Bodie Philip | officer | Award / grant | 25,550 | 76,052 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-18 | Rollins Aaron | director | Award / grant | 157,232 | 15,143,921 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-07 | Jashnani Yogesh | director | Award / grant | 165,290 | 165,290 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-07 | Jashnani Yogesh | director | Award / grant | 220,386 | 220,386 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.