AIRAAR Corp.Industrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $117.23 · now $117.23 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AIR has typically landed between $100.96 and $139.38 — a range of −13.9% to +18.9% from the issuance price $117.23.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($117.23) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AIR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $117.23 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$100.96worst · -13.9%$139.38best · +18.9%
  • now $117.23 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $120.87 (+3.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $112.64–$129.1
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $100.96–$139.38
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−78.9%−78.9%+2.0%
2020-02-19−71.5%−79.1%+1.0%
2020-02-21−71.1%−79.4%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+91.8%+0.0%+111.3%
2020-05-07+73.6%−9.6%+73.6%
2020-11-04+73.4%+0.0%+73.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+0.5%
n=20
Feb
60%
+0.5%
n=20
Mar
50%
−4.0%
n=20
Apr
45%
+0.8%
n=20
May
55%
−1.7%
n=20
Jun
70%
+3.6%
n=20
Jul
65%
+2.7%
n=20
Aug
50%
−1.7%
n=20
Sep
45%
+0.8%
n=20
Oct
65%
+4.8%
n=20
Nov
70%
+6.0%
n=20
Dec
60%
+4.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$154$722026-03-27: 2 insider sales, $2.8M — Holmes John McClain III …2026-03-26: 5 insider sales, $7.6M — Holmes John McClain III, Garascia Jessica A., Nolen Billy …2026-02-04: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Flanagan Sarah Louise2026-02-03: 1 insider sale, $1.1M — Holmes John McClain III2026-01-22: 2 insider sales, $528K — Pachapa Eric …2026-01-14: 2 insider sales, $989K — Holmes John McClain III …2026-01-13: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — Holmes John McClain III2026-01-12: 1 insider sale, $2.9M — Holmes John McClain III2026-01-09: 4 insider sales, $2.3M — Jessup Christopher A. …2026-01-08: 1 insider sale, $456K — Garascia Jessica A.2026-01-02: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Holmes John McClain III2025-11-05: 1 insider sale, $3.2M — Holmes John McClain III2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.1M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $3.2M2026-01: 12 open-market sales, $10.8M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $2.3M2026-03: 7 open-market sales, $10.4M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Holmes John McClain III — Sale on 2026-03-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Holmes John McClain III — Sale on 2026-03-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Holmes John McClain III — Sale on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Garascia Jessica A. — Sale on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Garascia Jessica A. — Sale on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Garascia Jessica A. — Sale on 2026-03-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Nolen Billy — Sale on 2026-03-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Flanagan Sarah Louise — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed same daydirector Holmes John McClain III — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed same dayofficer Pachapa Eric — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Pachapa Eric — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Holmes John McClain III — Sale on 2026-01-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Holmes John McClain III — Sale on 2026-01-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Holmes John McClain III — Sale on 2026-01-13, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Holmes John McClain III — Sale on 2026-01-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Jessup Christopher A. — Sale on 2026-01-09, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Jessup Christopher A. — Sale on 2026-01-09, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Jessup Christopher A. — Sale on 2026-01-09, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Jessup Christopher A. — Sale on 2026-01-09, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Garascia Jessica A. — Sale on 2026-01-08, filed same daydirector Holmes John McClain III — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Holmes John McClain III — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-27Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale23,950 @ $107.60$2.6M−9.2% of holding−10.7%not yet — horizon still open235,064Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-27Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale2,225 @ $107.60$239K−0.9% of holding−10.7%not yet — horizon still open235,064Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-26Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale60,000 @ $112.41$6.7M−20.3% of holding−11.4%not yet — horizon still open235,064Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-26Garascia Jessica A.officerSale2,368 @ $112.20$266K−7.4% of holding−11.4%not yet — horizon still open29,557Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-26Garascia Jessica A.officerSale2,138 @ $112.20$240K−6.7% of holding−11.4%not yet — horizon still open29,557Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-26Garascia Jessica A.officerSale1,778 @ $112.20$199K−5.7% of holding−11.4%not yet — horizon still open29,557Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-26Nolen BillydirectorSale1,562 @ $111.00$173K−100.0% of holding−11.4%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04Flanagan Sarah LouiseofficerSale10,750 @ $108.56$1.2M−24.7% of holding+3.3%+24.1%32,848Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-03Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale10,000 @ $108.44$1.1M−4.0% of holding+1.9%+21.4%237,064Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-22Pachapa EricofficerSale3,837 @ $105.94$406K−15.8% of holding+9.3%+12.0%20,385Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-22Pachapa EricofficerSale1,146 @ $105.94$121K−5.3% of holding+9.3%+12.0%20,385Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-14Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale6,000 @ $99.41$596K−2.5% of holding+13.0%+25.7%237,064Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-14Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale3,947 @ $99.41$392K−1.6% of holding+13.0%+25.7%237,064Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-13Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale16,802 @ $98.93$1.7M−6.6% of holding+17.7%+27.8%237,064Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-12Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale30,000 @ $97.50$2.9M−11.2% of holding+16.1%+29.0%237,064Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-09Jessup Christopher A.officerSale12,065 @ $97.00$1.2M−15.5% of holding+16.9%+29.7%65,769Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-09Jessup Christopher A.officerSale8,969 @ $97.13$871K−12.0% of holding+16.9%+29.7%65,769Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-09Jessup Christopher A.officerSale2,528 @ $97.00$245K−3.7% of holding+16.9%+29.7%65,769Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-09Jessup Christopher A.officerSale59 @ $97.00$6K−0.1% of holding+16.9%+29.7%65,769Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-08Garascia Jessica A.officerSale4,787 @ $95.25$456K−13.9% of holding+20.1%+29.0%29,557Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-02Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale23,077 @ $84.12$1.9M−8.9% of holding+29.2%+51.8%237,064Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-05Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale38,462 @ $83.50$3.2M−12.9% of holding−2.3%+31.4%260,141Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-07Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale10,000 @ $71.70$717K−3.2% of holding+1.1%+47.1%298,603Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-04Pachapa EricofficerSale5,000 @ $72.92$365K−19.7% of holding+0.9%+39.6%20,385Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-24Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale25,000 @ $78.02$2.0M−6.5% of holding−3.9%+27.1%360,921Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-24Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale6,551 @ $78.10$512K−1.8% of holding−3.9%+27.1%360,921Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-23Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale25,000 @ $77.34$1.9M−6.5% of holding−9.9%+26.3%360,921Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-23Gillen Sean M.officerSale8,000 @ $77.37$619K−7.4% of holding−9.9%+26.3%99,868Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-23VOGEL JENNIFER LdirectorSale7,000 @ $78.07$547K−23.4% of holding−9.9%+26.3%22,970Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-23Gillen Sean M.officerSale4,000 @ $77.37$309K−3.9% of holding−9.9%+26.3%99,868Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-23Pachapa EricofficerSale3,837 @ $78.12$300K−10.4% of holding−9.9%+26.3%33,074Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-23Gillen Sean M.officerSale2,000 @ $77.37$155K−2.0% of holding−9.9%+26.3%99,868Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-23Pachapa EricofficerSale1,911 @ $78.70$150K−5.8% of holding−9.9%+26.3%31,163Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-23Garascia Jessica A.officerSale1,559 @ $77.08$120K−3.8% of holding−9.9%+26.3%39,117Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-23Garascia Jessica A.officerSale1,183 @ $77.08$91K−2.9% of holding−9.9%+26.3%39,117Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-23Garascia Jessica A.officerSale889 @ $77.08$69K−2.2% of holding−9.9%+26.3%39,117Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-17Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale5,000 @ $70.81$354K−1.4% of holding−11.0%+6.7%341,680Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-16Jessup Christopher A.officerSale26,393 @ $70.42$1.9M−27.3% of holding−11.3%+7.2%70,297Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-16Jessup Christopher A.officerSale7,088 @ $70.35$499K−10.1% of holding−11.3%+7.2%63,209Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-15Jessup Christopher A.officerSale500 @ $70.19$35K−0.7% of holding−9.6%+13.8%70,297Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-10Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale48,000 @ $67.40$3.2M−11.6% of holding−2.3%+0.6%366,680Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-10Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale32,957 @ $66.46$2.2M−8.2% of holding−2.3%+0.6%366,680Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-10Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale14,667 @ $66.05$969K−3.8% of holding−2.3%+0.6%366,680Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-10Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale12,307 @ $66.83$822K−3.2% of holding−2.3%+0.6%366,680Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-10Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale11,359 @ $66.40$754K−3.1% of holding−2.3%+0.6%355,321Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-10Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale8,641 @ $65.84$569K−2.4% of holding−2.3%+0.6%346,680Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-10Gillen Sean M.officerSale8,000 @ $66.33$531K−10.0% of holding−2.3%+0.6%72,326Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-10Pachapa EricofficerSale6,500 @ $66.93$435K−21.1% of holding−2.3%+0.6%24,342Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-10Gillen Sean M.officerSale5,385 @ $66.33$357K−6.9% of holding−2.3%+0.6%72,326Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-10Gillen Sean M.officerSale4,000 @ $66.33$265K−5.2% of holding−2.3%+0.6%72,326Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-10Garascia Jessica A.officerSale1,500 @ $66.90$100K−3.8% of holding−2.3%+0.6%37,565Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-10Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorSale496 @ $67.40$33K−0.1% of holding−2.3%+0.6%366,680Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

176 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-31WALFISH MARC JAYdirectorAward / grant30054,373Form 4
2026-08-31LEDUC ROBERT FdirectorAward / grant1225,462Form 4
2026-07-31Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorWithheld for tax34,143447,582Form 4
2026-07-31Jessup Christopher A.officerWithheld for tax7,09879,339Form 4
2026-07-31Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorWithheld for tax6,220441,362Form 4
2026-07-31Garascia Jessica A.officerWithheld for tax5,63537,380Form 4
2026-07-31Pachapa EricofficerWithheld for tax3,36525,801Form 4
2026-07-31Jessup Christopher A.officerWithheld for tax1,29478,045Form 4
2026-07-31Garascia Jessica A.officerWithheld for tax1,02836,352Form 4
2026-07-31Pachapa EricofficerWithheld for tax61425,187Form 4
2026-07-23Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorAward / grant30,123320,225Form 4
2026-07-23Jessup Christopher A.officerAward / grant5,36078,396Form 4
2026-07-23Jessup Christopher A.officerAward / grant8,04186,437Form 4
2026-07-23Garascia Jessica A.officerAward / grant3,46037,824Form 4
2026-07-23Garascia Jessica A.officerAward / grant5,19143,015Form 4
2026-07-23Wolin Dylan ZacharyofficerAward / grant3,86211,442Form 4
2026-07-23Wolin Dylan ZacharyofficerAward / grant5,79317,235Form 4
2026-07-23Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorAward / grant161,500481,725Form 4
2026-07-23Pachapa EricofficerAward / grant2,08629,166Form 4
2026-07-23Pachapa EricofficerAward / grant1,39027,080Form 4
2026-07-23Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorAward / grant20,082290,102Form 4
2026-07-14Pachapa EricofficerAward / grant3,44525,690Form 4
2026-07-14Garascia Jessica A.officerAward / grant4,80734,364Form 4
2026-07-14Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorAward / grant34,956270,020Form 4
2026-07-14Jessup Christopher A.officerAward / grant7,26773,036Form 4
2026-06-01PACE PETERdirectorAward / grant1,36425,485Form 4
2026-06-01DIETRICH JOHN WdirectorAward / grant1,3648,426Form 4
2026-06-01Lord Ellen M.directorAward / grant1,36414,396Form 4
2026-06-01McNabb Duncan J.directorAward / grant1,3641,364Form 4
2026-06-01Boyce Michael RossdirectorAward / grant1,364100,904Form 4
2026-06-01Edwards Jeffrey NdirectorAward / grant1,3645,955Form 4
2026-06-01LEDUC ROBERT FdirectorAward / grant1,36418,689Form 4
2026-06-01VOGEL JENNIFER LdirectorAward / grant1,36424,334Form 4
2026-06-01WALFISH MARC JAYdirectorAward / grant1,364133,104Form 4
2026-06-01Nolen BillydirectorAward / grant1,3641,364Form 4
2026-06-01Widhani HemadirectorAward / grant1,3641,364Form 4
2026-05-29WALFISH MARC JAYdirectorAward / grant32254,073Form 4
2026-05-29LEDUC ROBERT FdirectorAward / grant1275,340Form 4
2026-03-27Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorOption exercise23,950259,014Form 4
2026-03-27Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorOption exercise2,225237,289Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.