Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.87 · now $20.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AIP has typically landed between $15.22 and $29.43 — a range of −27.1% to +41.0% from the issuance price $20.87.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,204 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AIP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $20.87 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.81 (-0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.94–$23.68
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.22–$29.43
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,204 windows spanning 2021-10-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-04-19 | −43.7% | −44.0% | +6.2% |
| 2026-06-29 | −43.1% | −43.1% | +2.6% |
| 2022-04-20 | −41.5% | −42.8% | +8.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-04-28 | +95.2% | +0.0% | +95.2% |
| 2026-04-15 | +83.9% | +0.0% | +83.9% |
| 2023-04-27 | +81.7% | +0.0% | +81.7% |
1,204 overlapping windows · 2021-10-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
60%
+4.5%
n=5
Feb
80%
+3.6%
n=5
Mar
20%
−14.3%
n=5
Apr
20%
+8.3%
n=5
May
80%
+26.0%
n=5
Jun
40%
+4.6%
n=5
Jul
80%
+0.2%
n=5
Aug
20%
−9.8%
n=5
Sep
20%
−3.5%
n=5
Oct
25%
−2.5%
n=4
Nov
80%
+9.0%
n=5
Dec
60%
−0.6%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Moll Laurent R | officer | Sale | 9,119 @ $20.84 | $190K | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 212,578 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Moll Laurent R | officer | Sale | 100 @ $21.75 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 212,478 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100,000 @ $20.75 | $2.1M | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,229,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $20.75 | $2.1M | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,229,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $20.77 | $83K | −5.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 70,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Hawkins Nicholas B. | officer | Sale | 10,431 @ $28.26 | $295K | −9.8% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,666 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Hawkins Nicholas B. | officer | Sale | 200 @ $29.00 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | −18.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,972 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 23,506 @ $31.92 | $750K | −0.3% of holding | −34.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,331,671 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 23,506 @ $31.92 | $750K | −0.3% of holding | −34.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,331,671 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,600 @ $32.41 | $84K | −0.0% of holding | −34.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,329,071 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 2,600 @ $32.41 | $84K | −0.0% of holding | −34.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,329,071 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 42,415 @ $29.99 | $1.3M | −0.5% of holding | −31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,380,335 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 42,415 @ $29.99 | $1.3M | −0.5% of holding | −31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,380,335 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | RAZA SAIYED ATIQ | director | Sale | 36,827 @ $29.99 | $1.1M | −57.5% of holding | −31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 27,252 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | RAZA SAIYED ATIQ | director | Sale | 27,252 @ $30.30 | $826K | −100.0% of holding | −31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 25,158 @ $30.31 | $763K | −0.3% of holding | −31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,355,177 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25,158 @ $30.31 | $763K | −0.3% of holding | −31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,355,177 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 6,321 @ $28.79 | $182K | −0.1% of holding | −31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,422,750 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 6,321 @ $28.79 | $182K | −0.1% of holding | −31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,422,750 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | RAZA SAIYED ATIQ | director | Sale | 5,921 @ $28.78 | $170K | −8.5% of holding | −31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,079 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Sale | 3,400 @ $30.20 | $103K | −4.6% of holding | −31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Sale | 600 @ $29.11 | $17K | −0.8% of holding | −31.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 74,133 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 68,578 @ $35.06 | $2.4M | −0.8% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,429,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 68,578 @ $35.06 | $2.4M | −0.8% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,429,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 29,490 @ $37.07 | $1.1M | −0.3% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,525,557 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 29,490 @ $37.07 | $1.1M | −0.3% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,525,557 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 27,908 @ $36.24 | $1.0M | −0.3% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,497,649 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 27,908 @ $36.24 | $1.0M | −0.3% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,497,649 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 5,316 @ $35.12 | $187K | −2.9% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 180,511 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 2,908 @ $37.12 | $108K | −1.6% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 175,148 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Sale | 2,878 @ $35.11 | $101K | −3.9% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 2,455 @ $36.17 | $89K | −1.4% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 178,056 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Sale | 1,824 @ $37.13 | $68K | −2.4% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 74,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Sale | 1,301 @ $35.98 | $47K | −1.7% of holding | −10.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,611 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 80,042 @ $34.77 | $2.8M | −0.9% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,590,463 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 80,042 @ $34.77 | $2.8M | −0.9% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,590,463 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 39,880 @ $36.70 | $1.5M | −0.5% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,696,853 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 39,880 @ $36.70 | $1.5M | −0.5% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,696,853 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 24,691 @ $38.89 | $960K | −0.3% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,565,772 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 24,691 @ $38.89 | $960K | −0.3% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,565,772 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 26,348 @ $35.67 | $940K | −0.3% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,670,505 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 26,348 @ $35.67 | $940K | −0.3% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,670,505 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 11,000 @ $37.61 | $414K | −0.1% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,736,733 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 11,000 @ $37.61 | $414K | −0.1% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,736,733 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 5,482 @ $39.72 | $218K | −0.1% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,560,290 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,482 @ $39.72 | $218K | −0.1% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,560,290 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 3,221 @ $38.78 | $125K | −1.6% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 193,508 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 2,743 @ $43.24 | $119K | −0.0% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,555,047 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,743 @ $43.24 | $119K | −0.0% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,555,047 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 2,775 @ $38.78 | $108K | −1.5% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 185,827 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,500 @ $40.78 | $102K | −0.0% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,557,790 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $40.78 | $102K | −0.0% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,557,790 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 2,613 @ $38.78 | $101K | −1.4% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 188,602 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Sale | 2,293 @ $38.78 | $89K | −1.2% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 191,215 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Moll Laurent R | officer | Sale | 1,931 @ $38.78 | $75K | −0.9% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 223,586 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Moll Laurent R | officer | Sale | 1,889 @ $38.78 | $73K | −0.8% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 221,697 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Hawkins Nicholas B. | officer | Sale | 1,512 @ $38.78 | $59K | −1.4% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 107,037 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Hawkins Nicholas B. | officer | Sale | 1,491 @ $38.78 | $58K | −1.4% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,172 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Hawkins Nicholas B. | officer | Sale | 1,265 @ $38.78 | $49K | −1.2% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,772 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Sale | 1,181 @ $38.78 | $46K | −1.5% of holding | −15.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,501 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
63 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Award / grant | 142,835 | 142,835 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 74,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Cantwell Wayne C | director | Gift | 5,000 | 42,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 49,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Cantwell Wayne C | director | Gift | 5,000 | 194,698 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Cantwell Wayne C | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 47,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Cantwell Wayne C | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Hawkins Nicholas B. | officer | Option exercise | 3,125 | 106,097 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Hawkins Nicholas B. | officer | Option exercise | 3,125 | 31,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 74,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 53,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Munce Claudia F. | director | Award / grant | 350 | 106,764 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-05 | Kunkel Joachim | director | Award / grant | 365 | 74,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 86,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 84,384 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 57,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Viana Antonio J | director | Gift | 20,839 | 4,704 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Viana Antonio J | director | Gift | 20,839 | 85,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | RAZA SAIYED ATIQ | director | Gift | 20,839 | 4,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | RAZA SAIYED ATIQ | director | Gift | 20,839 | 160,839 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | RAZA SAIYED ATIQ | director | Award / grant | 4,703 | 25,542 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Viana Antonio J | director | Award / grant | 4,703 | 25,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Cantwell Wayne C | director | Award / grant | 7,839 | 42,571 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Chitkara Raman | director | Award / grant | 4,703 | 147,570 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Munce Claudia F. | director | Award / grant | 4,703 | 106,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Kunkel Joachim | director | Award / grant | 4,703 | 74,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 92,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 90,386 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Option exercise | 2,500 | 27,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Alpern Paul L | officer | Option exercise | 4,000 | 61,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Bayview Legacy, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Gift | 50,000 | 8,999,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Gift | 50,000 | 8,999,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hawkins Nicholas B. | officer | Option exercise | 15,625 | 331,635 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hawkins Nicholas B. | officer | Option exercise | 197,396 | 316,010 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hawkins Nicholas B. | officer | Option exercise | 15,625 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hawkins Nicholas B. | officer | Option exercise | 197,396 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Munce Claudia F. | director | Award / grant | 860 | 101,711 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Kunkel Joachim | director | Award / grant | 899 | 69,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | JANAC K CHARLES | director | Gift | 70,000 | 9,279,071 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.