Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.16 · now $7.16 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AIIR has typically landed between $4.67 and $10.30 — a range of −34.8% to +43.8% from the issuance price $7.16.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
83 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-04-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AIIR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.16 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $6.54 (-8.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.64–$7.44
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.67–$10.3
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-15 | −54.5% | −54.9% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-14 | −43.7% | −45.8% | +20.1% |
| 2026-05-13 | −42.4% | −43.5% | +25.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-20 | +40.3% | +0.0% | +40.3% |
| 2026-07-29 | +36.9% | +0.0% | +36.9% |
| 2026-07-21 | +33.9% | +0.0% | +36.4% |
83 overlapping windows · 2026-04-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Lotfy Bassem | officer | Purchase | 50 @ $7.50 | $375 | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 254,689 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Brazier Stuart Damon | director | Purchase | 6,000 @ $7.35 | $44K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,087,757 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Lotfy Bassem | officer | Purchase | 4,450 @ $7.97 | $35K | +1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 254,639 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.