AIGAmerican International Group, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $76.07 · now $76.07 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AIG has typically landed between $68.86 and $83.76 — a range of −9.5% to +10.1% from the issuance price $76.07.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($76.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AIG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $76.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$68.86worst · -9.5%$83.76best · +10.1%
  • now $76.07 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $77.06 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $73.78–$80.34
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $68.86–$83.76
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-08-18−90.4%−90.4%+6.6%
2008-08-28−88.2%−90.4%+7.0%
2008-09-11−86.7%−88.3%+0.0%
3 best
2009-07-30+282.6%+0.0%+282.6%
2009-07-29+266.5%+0.0%+266.5%
2009-03-12+245.8%+0.0%+294.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$41.9B
market cap
$5.67
EPS (TTM)
13.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$26.8B
'20'25
Net income$3.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr11.6%
'20'25
ROE · by yr7.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.22
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $76.07$53.68$378.38
  • DCF (intrinsic)$355.99
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$92.89
  • Analyst target · range $80.00–$98.00$88.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$76.07

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
39%
−2.6%
n=18
Feb
53%
−2.5%
n=19
Mar
58%
+6.9%
n=19
Apr
68%
+4.5%
n=19
May
63%
+1.4%
n=19
Jun
58%
−2.8%
n=19
Jul
63%
−0.5%
n=19
Aug
37%
+11.1%
n=19
Sep
37%
−5.1%
n=19
Oct
72%
+0.3%
n=18
Nov
50%
+0.2%
n=18
Dec
56%
+2.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$86$712026-08-13: 2 insider sales, $2.8M — Zaffino Peter …2026-08-12: 1 insider sale, $15.3M — Zaffino Peter2025-12-30: 2 insider purchases, $2K — Inglis John C, Walsh Keith2025-09-30: 2 insider purchases, $2K — Inglis John C, Walsh Keith2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $50K2025-09: 2 open-market purchases, $2K2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $2K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $18.1M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Zaffino Peter — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed same daydirector Zaffino Peter — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed same daydirector Zaffino Peter — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Inglis John C — Purchase on 2025-12-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Walsh Keith — Purchase on 2025-12-30, filed 34 days after the tradedirector Inglis John C — Purchase on 2025-09-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Walsh Keith — Purchase on 2025-09-30, filed 125 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13Zaffino PeterdirectorSale36,629 @ $76.13$2.8M−6.2% of holding+1.9%not yet — horizon still open556,204Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-13Zaffino PeterdirectorSale200 @ $76.89$15K−0.0% of holding+1.9%not yet — horizon still open556,004Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-12Zaffino PeterdirectorSale200,000 @ $76.47$15.3M−25.2% of holding−0.7%not yet — horizon still open592,833Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-30Inglis John CdirectorPurchase14 @ $86.47$1K+0.5% of holding−13.8%−15.6%2,681Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-30Walsh KeithofficerPurchase5 @ $86.54$467+0.0% of holding−13.8%−15.6%42,799Form 4 · filed 34 days after the trade
2025-09-30Inglis John CdirectorPurchase15 @ $78.03$1K+0.6% of holding−3.9%−1.7%2,667Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-30Walsh KeithofficerPurchase6 @ $77.75$464+0.0% of holding−3.9%−1.7%42,794Form 4 · filed 125 days after the trade
2025-08-08Inglis John CdirectorPurchase653 @ $77.04$50K+32.7% of holding−1.6%−12.6%2,652Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-27Inglis John CdirectorPurchase11 @ $85.11$895+0.5% of holding−10.0%−9.5%1,999Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-27Walsh KeithofficerPurchase5 @ $84.79$462+0.0% of holding−10.0%−9.5%42,788Form 4 · filed 220 days after the trade
2025-05-20Carbone KathleenofficerSale25,809 @ $84.05$2.2M−58.7% of holding+1.2%−19.3%18,192Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-20Carbone KathleenofficerSale4,264 @ $84.11$359K−8.8% of holding+1.2%−19.3%44,001Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16Glazer Rose Marie E.officerSale27,950 @ $83.96$2.3M−31.6% of holding−0.2%−20.5%60,573Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Glazer Rose Marie E.officerSale7,004 @ $84.29$590K−7.3% of holding−0.2%−20.5%88,523Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-05Flatt ChristopherofficerSale46,182 @ $83.26$3.8M−68.3% of holding−3.4%−25.8%21,400Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Wade Claude E.directorSale22,456 @ $83.57$1.9M−68.8% of holding−3.4%−25.8%10,181Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Twiningdavis MelissaofficerSale9,321 @ $83.26$776K−21.3% of holding−3.4%−25.8%34,401Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

283 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Bewlay Nancy MofficerAward / grant55,28455,284Form 4
2026-07-27Schaper ChristopherofficerWithheld for tax2,47698,713Form 4
2026-07-01MILLS LINDA AdirectorAward / grant50547,849Form 4
2026-07-01MILLS LINDA AdirectorAward / grant29048,139Form 4
2026-07-01Porrino Peter RdirectorAward / grant53853,747Form 4
2026-07-01Porrino Peter RdirectorAward / grant32554,072Form 4
2026-07-01Inglis John CdirectorAward / grant487,747Form 4
2026-07-01Perez Juan R.directorAward / grant335,370Form 4
2026-07-01Leimkuhler CourtneydirectorAward / grant386,113Form 4
2026-07-01Cole James Jr.directorAward / grant12119,285Form 4
2026-07-01Stoddard Thomas DdirectorAward / grant152,402Form 4
2026-07-01Inglis John CdirectorAward / grant487,747Form 4
2026-07-01Leimkuhler CourtneydirectorAward / grant386,113Form 4
2026-07-01MILLS LINDA AdirectorAward / grant50547,849Form 4
2026-07-01MILLS LINDA AdirectorAward / grant29048,139Form 4
2026-07-01MURPHY DIANA MdirectorAward / grant7211,626Form 4
2026-07-01Perez Juan R.directorAward / grant335,370Form 4
2026-07-01Porrino Peter RdirectorAward / grant53853,747Form 4
2026-07-01Porrino Peter RdirectorAward / grant32554,072Form 4
2026-07-01RICE JOHN GdirectorAward / grant1,25619,647Form 4
2026-07-01RICE JOHN GdirectorAward / grant11519,762Form 4
2026-07-01Stoddard Thomas DdirectorAward / grant152,402Form 4
2026-07-01WITTMAN VANESSA AMESdirectorAward / grant7211,626Form 4
2026-07-01Cole James Jr.directorAward / grant12119,285Form 4
2026-07-01MURPHY DIANA MdirectorAward / grant7211,626Form 4
2026-07-01WITTMAN VANESSA AMESdirectorAward / grant7211,626Form 4
2026-07-01RICE JOHN GdirectorAward / grant1,25619,647Form 4
2026-07-01RICE JOHN GdirectorAward / grant11519,762Form 4
2026-06-29Zaffino PeterdirectorAward / grant6,24176,111Form 4
2026-06-29Zaffino PeterdirectorAward / grant6,24176,111Form 4
2026-06-03Lafnitzegger KellyofficerWithheld for tax54911,225Form 4
2026-06-01Stoddard Thomas DdirectorAward / grant2,3872,387Form 4
2026-06-01Stoddard Thomas DdirectorAward / grant2,3872,387Form 4
2026-05-13MURPHY DIANA MdirectorAward / grant2,44111,554Form 4
2026-05-13Cole James Jr.directorAward / grant2,44119,164Form 4
2026-05-13WITTMAN VANESSA AMESdirectorAward / grant2,44111,554Form 4
2026-05-13RICE JOHN GdirectorAward / grant2,44118,391Form 4
2026-05-13Perez Juan R.directorAward / grant2,4415,337Form 4
2026-05-13MILLS LINDA AdirectorAward / grant2,44147,344Form 4
2026-05-13Porrino Peter RdirectorAward / grant2,44153,209Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132025-02-24$1–15K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-01-132025-07-25$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-07-10$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-12$15–50K
Jefferson ShreveHousepurchase2025-04-112025-03-13$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-10-102024-09-19$100–250K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-10-102024-09-19$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-09-162024-08-02$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-03-152024-02-20$50–100K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-03-152024-02-20$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-02-132024-01-19$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2024-02-132024-01-19$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.