Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.42 · now $3.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AIAI has typically landed between $1.17 and $4.90 — a range of −65.9% to +43.2% from the issuance price $3.42.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
65 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-05-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AIAI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.42 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.45 (-28.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.55–$3.35
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.17–$4.9
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-29 | −69.0% | −69.0% | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-08 | −68.3% | −68.3% | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-07 | −67.1% | −67.1% | +0.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-19 | +26.3% | −11.0% | +26.3% |
| 2026-05-20 | +26.2% | −12.3% | +26.2% |
| 2026-05-21 | +25.0% | −19.6% | +25.0% |
65 overlapping windows · 2026-05-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Carlton Charles Craig | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 8,250 @ $6.09 | $50K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,221,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Carlton Charles Craig | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,000 @ $7.13 | $50K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,213,250 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Carlton Charles Craig | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 7,250 @ $6.83 | $50K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,206,250 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Remy Donald Michael | director | Purchase | 365 @ $5.40 | $2K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,462 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Affeldt Eric | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $5.96 | $30K | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Furniss Todd Anthony | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $5.59 | $6K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,247,620 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-19 | Remy Donald Michael | director | Purchase | 540 @ $5.25 | $3K | +0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 62,097 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Glajch Jeffrey | director | Sale | 7,485 @ $12.97 | $97K | −2.2% of holding | −70.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 340,321 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Glajch Jeffrey | director | Sale | 14,295 @ $13.60 | $194K | −3.9% of holding | −67.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 347,806 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Weiszhaar Barbara Barton | officer | Sale | 14,781 @ $14.21 | $210K | −8.4% of holding | −63.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 161,339 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-30 | Liebman Stephanie | officer | Sale | 14,780 @ $14.21 | $210K | −8.4% of holding | −63.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 161,259 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-29 | Weiszhaar Barbara Barton | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $15.21 | $76K | −2.8% of holding | −67.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 176,120 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Liebman Stephanie | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $15.21 | $76K | −2.7% of holding | −67.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | Liebman Stephanie | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $14.75 | $74K | −2.8% of holding | −67.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 176,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Liebman Stephanie | officer | Sale | 1,397 @ $15.62 | $22K | −0.7% of holding | −63.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 186,039 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Weiszhaar Barbara Barton | officer | Sale | 1,397 @ $15.62 | $22K | −0.8% of holding | −63.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,120 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Liebman Stephanie | officer | Sale | 18,503 @ $14.67 | $271K | −10.7% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 154,014 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Weiszhaar Barbara Barton | officer | Sale | 18,503 @ $14.67 | $271K | −10.7% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 154,014 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Liebman Stephanie | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $13.08 | $131K | −5.5% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 172,517 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Weiszhaar Barbara Barton | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $13.08 | $131K | −5.5% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 172,517 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Weiszhaar Barbara Barton | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $12.00 | $120K | −5.2% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 182,517 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Liebman Stephanie | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $12.00 | $120K | −5.2% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 182,517 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
5 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Carlton Charles Craig | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 4,250,000 | 9,199,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Carlton Charles Craig | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 4,250,000 | 9,199,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Liebman Stephanie | officer | Award / grant | 33,422 | 187,436 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Weiszhaar Barbara Barton | officer | Award / grant | 31,584 | 185,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Betts Kenneth | officer | Award / grant | 26,738 | 441,343 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.