Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.56 · now $10.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AI has typically landed between $7.62 and $13.86 — a range of −27.9% to +31.2% from the issuance price $10.56.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,427 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-12-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.56 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.31 (-2.4%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.07–$11.55
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.62–$13.86
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,427 windows spanning 2020-12-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-02-09 | −48.8% | −50.5% | +0.0% |
| 2023-03-31 | −48.6% | −48.6% | +0.9% |
| 2023-04-03 | −48.6% | −49.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-01-05 | +154.9% | +0.0% | +154.9% |
| 2023-01-09 | +133.2% | +0.0% | +145.3% |
| 2023-04-28 | +130.9% | −3.3% | +130.9% |
1,427 overlapping windows · 2020-12-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
+3.6%
n=6
Feb
33%
−4.1%
n=6
Mar
50%
−3.8%
n=6
Apr
50%
−13.1%
n=6
May
83%
+33.8%
n=6
Jun
17%
−6.1%
n=6
Jul
50%
−2.4%
n=6
Aug
33%
−8.2%
n=6
Sep
33%
−9.1%
n=6
Oct
60%
+0.2%
n=5
Nov
40%
+6.7%
n=5
Dec
0%
−9.0%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 22,780 @ $10.56 | $241K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 744,348 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 16,890 @ $10.30 | $174K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 738,208 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 453,314 @ $10.51 | $4.8M | −38.6% of holding | +0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 722,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Lath Hitesh | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $10.00 | $200K | −5.2% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 363,106 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 139,500 @ $9.61 | $1.3M | −13.9% of holding | +5.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 866,196 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 133,490 @ $9.32 | $1.2M | −15.6% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 722,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 64,975 @ $9.31 | $605K | −8.3% of holding | +8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 722,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 264,100 @ $9.07 | $2.4M | −26.8% of holding | +7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 722,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Ehikian Stephen Bradley | officer | Sale | 50,542 @ $9.45 | $478K | −7.2% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 651,130 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Lath Hitesh | officer | Sale | 27,304 @ $8.77 | $239K | −6.3% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 404,421 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | Lath Hitesh | officer | Sale | 21,315 @ $8.77 | $187K | −5.3% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 383,106 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Lath Hitesh | officer | Sale | 34,210 @ $10.95 | $375K | −12.8% of holding | −18.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 233,106 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 472,005 @ $11.11 | $5.2M | −39.5% of holding | −18.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 722,362 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 23,570 @ $10.92 | $257K | −3.1% of holding | −18.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 743,559 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 17,350 @ $11.32 | $196K | −0.3% of holding | −17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,904,415 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 112,014 @ $8.65 | $969K | −13.4% of holding | +17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 722,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 369,624 @ $8.72 | $3.2M | −33.8% of holding | +24.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 722,362 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 27,210 @ $9.27 | $252K | −3.5% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 748,277 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-14 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 165,278 @ $8.49 | $1.4M | −18.6% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 722,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 326,189 @ $8.31 | $2.7M | −31.1% of holding | −3.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 722,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Ehikian Stephen Bradley | officer | Sale | 52,194 @ $8.22 | $429K | −6.7% of holding | −5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 721,485 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Snabe Jim H. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $8.08 | $81K | −2.5% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 385,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | Snabe Jim H. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $7.73 | $77K | +2.6% of holding | +3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 395,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 219,294 @ $8.67 | $1.9M | −23.3% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 722,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 282,203 @ $8.86 | $2.5M | −28.1% of holding | +0.9% | +6.9% | 722,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Lath Hitesh | officer | Sale | 15,248 @ $8.98 | $137K | −6.0% of holding | +3.3% | +8.8% | 238,308 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 23,435 @ $9.11 | $213K | −3.1% of holding | −7.8% | +3.5% | 743,693 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Snabe Jim H. | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $9.00 | $225K | +6.8% of holding | −5.2% | −0.1% | 395,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 17,655 @ $7.79 | $138K | −2.3% of holding | +2.3% | +12.7% | 737,443 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 511,732 @ $11.66 | $6.0M | −41.5% of holding | −19.0% | −24.4% | 722,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 27,605 @ $10.81 | $298K | −3.6% of holding | −13.4% | −19.5% | 747,882 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 309,589 @ $13.52 | $4.2M | −32.9% of holding | −21.7% | −43.1% | 632,256 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 212,586 @ $13.52 | $2.9M | −22.7% of holding | −21.7% | −43.1% | 722,362 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Ehikian Stephen Bradley | officer | Sale | 234,918 @ $13.56 | $3.2M | −20.3% of holding | −21.0% | −41.9% | 924,074 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 140,768 @ $14.22 | $2.0M | −13.0% of holding | −12.3% | −42.7% | 941,845 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 392,064 @ $14.37 | $5.6M | −26.6% of holding | −12.2% | −39.8% | 1,082,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Lath Hitesh | officer | Sale | 15,042 @ $14.38 | $216K | −6.3% of holding | −12.2% | −39.8% | 223,120 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 23,000 @ $15.94 | $367K | −3.0% of holding | −10.5% | −39.1% | 744,129 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 17,000 @ $14.21 | $242K | −51.9% of holding | −4.9% | −38.1% | 15,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 543,706 @ $15.24 | $8.3M | −27.4% of holding | +3.1% | −51.2% | 1,437,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 27,545 @ $17.30 | $477K | −51.8% of holding | −12.5% | −52.0% | 25,580 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 554,802 @ $18.82 | $10.4M | −22.1% of holding | −25.1% | −57.5% | 1,955,300 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Schilling Robert David | officer | Sale | 240,121 @ $17.29 | $4.2M | −16.2% of holding | −4.4% | −49.3% | 1,241,626 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Schilling Robert David | officer | Sale | 230,299 @ $17.29 | $4.0M | −18.5% of holding | −4.4% | −49.3% | 1,011,327 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 566,125 @ $17.23 | $9.8M | −18.4% of holding | +9.0% | −51.6% | 2,510,102 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Lath Hitesh | officer | Sale | 46,881 @ $16.99 | $797K | −18.3% of holding | +9.0% | −51.6% | 209,154 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 92,000 @ $16.33 | $1.5M | −51.4% of holding | +16.8% | −48.8% | 87,119 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 17,200 @ $16.49 | $284K | −52.5% of holding | −0.6% | −52.4% | 15,536 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 577,678 @ $16.78 | $9.7M | −16.3% of holding | −5.3% | −44.2% | 2,973,572 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 336,000 @ $22.77 | $7.7M | −50.9% of holding | −30.1% | −63.5% | 323,916 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 575,874 @ $28.56 | $16.4M | −15.1% of holding | −39.1% | −65.4% | 3,240,928 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-18 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 13,594 @ $29.24 | $397K | −0.4% of holding | −39.1% | −65.4% | 3,227,334 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | Lath Hitesh | officer | Sale | 8,983 @ $24.96 | $224K | −4.9% of holding | −2.3% | −55.2% | 174,924 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-27 | Lath Hitesh | officer | Sale | 8,706 @ $24.97 | $217K | −5.0% of holding | −2.3% | −55.2% | 166,218 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Lath Hitesh | officer | Sale | 6,040 @ $24.19 | $146K | −49.3% of holding | +11.5% | −53.7% | 6,218 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | Witteveen Merel | officer | Sale | 5,485 @ $23.95 | $131K | −28.5% of holding | +11.5% | −53.7% | 13,740 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Hyten John E. | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $23.75 | $238K | −13.5% of holding | +9.7% | −50.6% | 63,942 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 590,995 @ $25.01 | $14.8M | −13.4% of holding | +4.5% | −50.8% | 3,827,305 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Sale | 10,503 @ $25.76 | $271K | −0.3% of holding | +4.5% | −50.8% | 3,816,802 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | SEWELL D BRUCE | director | Sale | 79 @ $26.00 | $2K | −100.0% of holding | +4.5% | −50.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
225 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Gift | 21,986 | 722,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Gift | 21,986 | 7,105,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 44,766 | 179,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 44,766 | 767,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 44,766 | 767,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 44,766 | 767,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 44,766 | 767,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Gift | 15,846 | 7,083,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Gift | 15,846 | 722,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 32,736 | 32,738 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 32,736 | 755,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 32,736 | 755,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 32,736 | 755,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 32,736 | 755,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Dwyer John Charles | director | Award / grant | 132,077 | 132,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 453,314 | 1,175,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 453,314 | 2,413,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Gift | 143,834 | 722,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Gift | 143,834 | 7,067,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 283,334 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 283,334 | 1,005,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 283,334 | 1,005,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 133,490 | 855,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 64,975 | 787,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | Hyten John E. | director | Disposition | 2,500 | 69,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 64,975 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-15 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 133,490 | 2,866,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 264,100 | 986,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 264,100 | 64,975 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Ehikian Stephen Bradley | officer | Gift | 44,378 | 606,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Ehikian Stephen Bradley | officer | Gift | 44,378 | 274,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ehikian Stephen Bradley | officer | Award / grant | 27,503 | 701,672 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Lath Hitesh | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 383,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Lath Hitesh | officer | Award / grant | 48,619 | 431,725 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Option exercise | 472,005 | 1,194,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Hyten John E. | director | Disposition | 2,500 | 71,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lath Hitesh | officer | Option exercise | 20,000 | 267,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | SIEBEL THOMAS M | director | Gift | 21,197 | 722,362 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lath Hitesh | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 247,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Lath Hitesh | officer | Option exercise | 8,008 | 246,316 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.