AHRT · TickerCove

AHRTAH Realty Trust, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Diversifiedas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $6.26 · now $6.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AHRT has typically landed between $5.46 and $6.96 — a range of −12.8% to +11.1% from the issuance price $6.26.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,339 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-05-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($6.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$6.26 · 57% of range

$5.04 low$7.18 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.1%

typical move · IQR 10.5%

−12.8%worst (p90)+11.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AHRT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $6.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $6.26 (+0.0%)
typical $6.25 (-0.1%)
middle 50% $5.92–$6.58
90% range $5.46–$6.96

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,339 windows spanning 2013-05-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-20	−55.9%	−55.9%	+1.2%
2020-02-13	−55.6%	−55.6%	+1.1%
2020-02-18	−54.2%	−55.5%	+1.4%
3 best
2020-05-15	+38.7%	+0.0%	+50.5%
2020-10-27	+33.3%	+0.0%	+36.8%
2020-05-13	+32.6%	−1.5%	+48.3%

3,339 overlapping windows · 2013-05-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

38%

+0.2%

n=13

Feb

54%

−1.0%

n=13

Mar

46%

−3.8%

n=13

Apr

46%

−0.4%

n=13

May

62%

+1.0%

n=13

Jun

71%

+2.8%

n=14

Jul

57%

+1.7%

n=14

Aug

57%

−1.4%

n=14

Sep

29%

−3.5%

n=14

Oct

54%

+1.5%

n=13

Nov

92%

+4.6%

n=13

Dec

54%

+0.6%

n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-02	Wimbush Frederick Blair	director	Purchase	529 @ $7.01	$4K	+1.2% of holding	−4.1%	not yet — horizon still open	45,218	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-01	Wimbush Frederick Blair	director	Purchase	358 @ $7.00	$3K	+0.8% of holding	−0.6%	not yet — horizon still open	44,688	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-04-02	Wimbush Frederick Blair	director	Purchase	669 @ $5.41	$4K	+1.6% of holding	−3.9%	not yet — horizon still open	42,031	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-04-01	Wimbush Frederick Blair	director	Purchase	395 @ $5.38	$2K	+1.0% of holding	+2.5%	not yet — horizon still open	41,361	Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2026-03-03	Wimbush Frederick Blair	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $6.19	$62K	+34.9% of holding	−7.4%	−4.5%	38,685	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

38 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	Wimbush Frederick Blair	director	Award / grant	2,800	48,018	Form 4
2026-09-15	BIGMAN THEODORE	director	Award / grant	2,317	82,317	Form 4
2026-09-15	Carroll James A	director	Award / grant	941	44,616	Form 4
2026-07-01	Wimbush Frederick Blair	director	Exercise	4,981	4,981	Form 4
2026-07-01	Carroll James A	director	Exercise	4,981	19,633	Form 4
2026-07-01	Carroll James A	director	Exercise	4,981	9,626	Form 4
2026-07-01	Hoffler Daniel A	director	Exercise	4,981	19,633	Form 4
2026-07-01	Hoffler Daniel A	director	Exercise	4,981	4,993,244	Form 4
2026-07-01	Cherry James C.	director	Exercise	4,981	19,633	Form 4
2026-07-01	Cherry James C.	director	Exercise	4,981	9,626	Form 4
2026-07-01	Wimbush Frederick Blair	director	Exercise	4,981	19,633	Form 4
2026-06-17	Boykin Jennifer R.	director	Award / grant	11,695	21,332	Form 4
2026-06-17	Carroll James A	director	Award / grant	11,695	24,614	Form 4
2026-06-17	Cherry James C.	director	Award / grant	11,695	24,614	Form 4
2026-06-17	Hoffler Daniel A	director	Award / grant	11,695	24,614	Form 4
2026-06-17	Wittman Lori	director	Award / grant	11,695	11,695	Form 4
2026-06-17	BIGMAN THEODORE	director	Award / grant	11,695	11,695	Form 4
2026-06-17	Haddad Louis S	director	Award / grant	11,695	307,476	Form 4
2026-06-17	Wimbush Frederick Blair	director	Award / grant	11,695	24,614	Form 4
2026-06-16	Wimbush Frederick Blair	director	Award / grant	2,300	44,331	Form 4
2026-06-16	Gartman Dennis H.	director	Award / grant	2,019	52,793	Form 4
2026-06-16	Carroll James A	director	Award / grant	757	43,675	Form 4
2026-03-16	Wimbush Frederick Blair	director	Award / grant	2,281	40,966	Form 4
2026-03-16	Gartman Dennis H.	director	Award / grant	2,281	50,774	Form 4
2026-03-16	Carroll James A	director	Award / grant	855	42,918	Form 4
2026-03-11	Barnes-Smith Matthew	officer	Exercise	20,892	20,892	Form 4
2026-03-11	Tibbetts Shawn J	director	Exercise	55,080	55,080	Form 4
2026-03-11	Barnes-Smith Matthew	officer	Exercise	20,892	325,953	Form 4
2026-03-11	Tibbetts Shawn J	director	Exercise	55,080	654,711	Form 4
2026-03-03	Tibbetts Shawn J	director	Withheld for tax	4,167	57,518	Form 4
2026-03-03	Barnes-Smith Matthew	officer	Withheld for tax	1,486	10,131	Form 4
2026-03-02	Barnes-Smith Matthew	officer	Award / grant	141,196	207,202	Form 4
2026-03-02	Barnes-Smith Matthew	officer	Award / grant	70,598	180,733	Form 4
2026-03-02	Barnes-Smith Matthew	officer	Award / grant	166,112	346,845	Form 4
2026-03-02	Tibbetts Shawn J	director	Award / grant	186,877	460,622	Form 4
2026-03-02	Tibbetts Shawn J	director	Award / grant	249,169	709,791	Form 4
2026-03-02	Tibbetts Shawn J	director	Award / grant	373,754	538,770	Form 4
2025-01-02	Hoffler Daniel A	director	Other acquisition	279	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i