Issued 2026-09-16 at $105.46 · now $105.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AGYS has typically landed between $89.14 and $132.13 — a range of −15.5% to +25.3% from the issuance price $105.46.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($105.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AGYS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $105.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $105.46 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $105.66 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $97.7–$113.63
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $89.14–$132.13
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-14 | −68.9% | −68.9% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-16 | −66.7% | −66.9% | +0.3% |
| 2008-09-26 | −66.0% | −66.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-11-20 | +125.4% | +0.0% | +132.2% |
| 2008-11-17 | +116.4% | −6.8% | +116.4% |
| 2008-11-14 | +107.0% | −4.7% | +107.0% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−2.9%
n=20
Feb
45%
+3.4%
n=20
Mar
55%
−0.9%
n=20
Apr
35%
+1.0%
n=20
May
65%
+6.7%
n=20
Jun
60%
+3.6%
n=20
Jul
70%
+3.8%
n=20
Aug
50%
+1.6%
n=20
Sep
45%
+0.2%
n=20
Oct
45%
−1.4%
n=20
Nov
55%
+6.2%
n=20
Dec
70%
+2.9%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Abdelrahman Joe Ahmed Youssef | officer | Sale | 1,002 @ $114.64 | $115K | −5.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 19,045 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Badger Kyle C | officer | Sale | 8,400 @ $114.06 | $958K | −10.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 75,037 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Wood William David III | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $114.72 | $688K | −14.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 35,052 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | SRINIVASAN RAMESH | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $108.15 | $2.7M | −3.9% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 610,044 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | SRINIVASAN RAMESH | director | Sale | 66,205 @ $106.63 | $7.1M | −8.9% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 675,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | SRINIVASAN RAMESH | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $106.60 | $4.3M | −5.9% of holding | +3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 635,044 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | SRINIVASAN RAMESH | director | Sale | 66,205 @ $109.63 | $7.3M | −8.2% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 741,249 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Badger Kyle C | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $92.17 | $184K | −2.3% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,437 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Badger Kyle C | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $92.51 | $93K | −1.2% of holding | +16.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,437 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 70 @ $68.32 | $5K | +0.2% of holding | −5.5% | +42.0% | 35,407 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 65 @ $68.10 | $4K | +0.2% of holding | −5.5% | +42.0% | 35,232 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 55 @ $67.98 | $4K | +0.2% of holding | −5.5% | +42.0% | 35,337 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 50 @ $68.01 | $3K | +0.1% of holding | −5.5% | +42.0% | 35,282 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 100 @ $68.49 | $7K | +0.3% of holding | −6.4% | +39.5% | 35,107 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 60 @ $68.20 | $4K | +0.2% of holding | −6.4% | +39.5% | 35,167 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 70 @ $84.70 | $6K | +0.2% of holding | −3.7% | +19.8% | 34,907 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-03 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 60 @ $83.83 | $5K | +0.2% of holding | −3.7% | +19.8% | 34,807 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-03 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 50 @ $82.82 | $4K | +0.1% of holding | −3.7% | +19.8% | 35,007 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-03 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 50 @ $81.90 | $4K | +0.1% of holding | −3.7% | +19.8% | 34,957 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-03 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 40 @ $84.10 | $3K | +0.1% of holding | −3.7% | +19.8% | 34,747 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-03 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 30 @ $84.22 | $3K | +0.1% of holding | −3.7% | +19.8% | 34,837 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-30 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 100 @ $84.84 | $8K | +0.3% of holding | −7.9% | +16.4% | 34,707 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 100 @ $83.90 | $8K | +0.3% of holding | −7.9% | +16.4% | 34,507 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 50 @ $84.40 | $4K | +0.1% of holding | −7.9% | +16.4% | 34,607 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-30 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Purchase | 50 @ $83.99 | $4K | +0.1% of holding | −7.9% | +16.4% | 34,557 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | COLVIN DONALD A | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $123.28 | $740K | −19.6% of holding | −6.3% | −50.2% | 24,592 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Robertson Chris J | officer | Sale | 500 @ $131.34 | $66K | −42.1% of holding | −2.7% | −56.4% | 687 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Wood William David III | officer | Sale | 584 @ $125.20 | $73K | −1.4% of holding | +2.3% | −49.2% | 41,052 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Wood William David III | officer | Sale | 990 @ $124.64 | $123K | −2.3% of holding | −0.5% | −54.1% | 41,636 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Badger Kyle C | officer | Sale | 502 @ $124.64 | $63K | −0.4% of holding | −0.5% | −54.1% | 114,911 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Shivashankar Sethuram | officer | Sale | 497 @ $124.64 | $62K | −2.0% of holding | −0.5% | −54.1% | 24,031 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Robertson Chris J | officer | Sale | 400 @ $124.64 | $50K | −2.4% of holding | −0.5% | −54.1% | 16,187 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Abdelrahman Joe Ahmed Youssef | officer | Sale | 103 @ $124.64 | $13K | −0.5% of holding | −0.5% | −54.1% | 20,047 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Wood William David III | officer | Sale | 6,000 @ $115.55 | $693K | −12.7% of holding | +10.9% | −47.3% | 41,288 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Abdelrahman Joe Ahmed Youssef | officer | Sale | 504 @ $106.88 | $54K | −2.5% of holding | −10.5% | −33.2% | 19,731 | Form 4 · filed 63 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Badger Kyle C | officer | Sale | 326 @ $113.39 | $37K | −0.3% of holding | −3.3% | −8.2% | 114,791 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Wood William David III | officer | Sale | 321 @ $113.39 | $36K | −0.7% of holding | −3.3% | −8.2% | 47,288 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Robertson Chris J | officer | Sale | 258 @ $113.39 | $29K | −1.2% of holding | −3.3% | −8.2% | 21,137 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | Robertson Chris J | officer | Sale | 500 @ $111.27 | $56K | −2.3% of holding | −1.7% | −2.9% | 21,395 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | MUTCH JOHN | director | Sale | 500 @ $110.83 | $55K | −1.6% of holding | +0.5% | −2.3% | 31,404 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | MUTCH JOHN | director | Sale | 750 @ $75.33 | $56K | −2.3% of holding | −3.7% | +26.6% | 31,904 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | MUTCH JOHN | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $77.87 | $156K | −5.8% of holding | −1.7% | +32.7% | 32,654 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-24 | Kaufman 2012 Descendants Trust, David N. Smith, Trustee | other | Sale | 7,692 @ $93.10 | $716K | −3.3% of holding | −9.8% | +22.5% | 225,384 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-23 | Kaufman 2012 Descendants Trust, David N. Smith, Trustee | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $96.68 | $725K | −3.1% of holding | −15.8% | +17.1% | 233,076 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Kaufman 2012 Descendants Trust, David N. Smith, Trustee | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $100.17 | $751K | −3.0% of holding | −21.9% | +7.5% | 240,576 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-21 | Kaufman 2012 Descendants Trust, David N. Smith, Trustee | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $125.49 | $941K | −2.9% of holding | −36.9% | −16.3% | 248,076 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-17 | Kaufman 2012 Descendants Trust, David N. Smith, Trustee | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $128.17 | $961K | −2.9% of holding | −34.5% | −14.4% | 255,576 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-16 | Kaufman 2012 Descendants Trust, David N. Smith, Trustee | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $133.71 | $1.0M | −2.8% of holding | −39.8% | −19.0% | 263,076 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Kaufman 2012 Descendants Trust, David N. Smith, Trustee | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $132.98 | $997K | −2.7% of holding | −37.1% | −19.7% | 270,576 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-14 | Kaufman 2012 Descendants Trust, David N. Smith, Trustee | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $128.81 | $966K | −2.6% of holding | −39.8% | −17.3% | 278,076 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-13 | Kaufman 2012 Descendants Trust, David N. Smith, Trustee | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $126.26 | $947K | −2.6% of holding | −39.0% | −16.3% | 285,576 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-10 | Kaufman 2012 Descendants Trust, David N. Smith, Trustee | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $130.29 | $977K | −2.5% of holding | −38.7% | −19.7% | 293,076 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-08 | Kaufman 2012 Descendants Trust, David N. Smith, Trustee | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $132.04 | $990K | −2.4% of holding | −39.0% | −21.4% | 300,576 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-07 | Kaufman 2012 Descendants Trust, David N. Smith, Trustee | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $128.57 | $964K | −2.4% of holding | −35.3% | −19.0% | 308,076 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-06 | Kaufman 2012 Descendants Trust, David N. Smith, Trustee | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $130.34 | $978K | −2.3% of holding | −35.5% | −17.2% | 315,576 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-01-03 | Kaufman 2012 Descendants Trust, David N. Smith, Trustee | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $132.66 | $995K | −2.3% of holding | −35.9% | −19.9% | 323,076 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Kaufman 2012 Descendants Trust, David N. Smith, Trustee | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $130.55 | $979K | −2.2% of holding | −35.6% | −16.3% | 330,576 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | MAK CAPITAL ONE LLC | director | Sale | 327,600 | — | −50.0% of holding | +1.9% | −14.9% | 327,600 | Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | MAK CAPITAL ONE LLC | director | Purchase | 327,600 | — | ownership Δ n/a | +1.9% | −14.9% | 327,600 | Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | MAK CAPITAL ONE LLC | director | Sale | 327,600 | — | −50.0% of holding | +1.9% | −14.9% | 327,600 | Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
58 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | SRINIVASAN RAMESH | director | Award / grant | 39,135 | 39,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Jones Dana Sue | director | Award / grant | 1,424 | 1,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | MUTCH JOHN | director | Award / grant | 1,424 | 1,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | COLVIN DONALD A | director | Award / grant | 1,424 | 1,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Pope Lisa | director | Award / grant | 1,424 | 1,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Kaufman Michael A | director | Award / grant | 1,424 | 1,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | JONES JERRY C | director | Award / grant | 1,424 | 1,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Award / grant | 1,424 | 1,424 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | SRINIVASAN RAMESH | director | Award / grant | 8,607 | 808,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | COLVIN DONALD A | director | Option exercise | 973 | 25,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Pope Lisa | director | Option exercise | 973 | 1,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Jones Dana Sue | director | Option exercise | 973 | 14,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Option exercise | 973 | 36,380 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | JONES JERRY C | director | Option exercise | 973 | 42,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | MUTCH JOHN | director | Option exercise | 973 | 32,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Kaufman Michael A | director | Option exercise | 973 | 11,521 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Kaufman Michael A | director | Option exercise | 973 | 973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Pope Lisa | director | Option exercise | 973 | 973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | MUTCH JOHN | director | Option exercise | 973 | 973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | KEATING MELVIN L | director | Option exercise | 973 | 973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | COLVIN DONALD A | director | Option exercise | 973 | 973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Jones Dana Sue | director | Option exercise | 973 | 973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | JONES JERRY C | director | Option exercise | 973 | 973 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | SRINIVASAN RAMESH | director | Option exercise | 21,035 | 786,991 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | SRINIVASAN RAMESH | director | Option exercise | 12,893 | 799,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | SRINIVASAN RAMESH | director | Option exercise | 11,310 | 765,956 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | SRINIVASAN RAMESH | director | Option exercise | 12,893 | 12,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | SRINIVASAN RAMESH | director | Option exercise | 11,310 | 11,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | SRINIVASAN RAMESH | director | Option exercise | 21,035 | 21,035 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-04 | Jones Dana Sue | director | Gift | 2,810 | 13,856 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Wood William David III | officer | Award / grant | 5,330 | 8,007 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Badger Kyle C | officer | Award / grant | 3,332 | 4,576 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Robertson Chris J | officer | Award / grant | 1,666 | 2,567 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Shivashankar Sethuram | officer | Award / grant | 4,164 | 5,610 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Abdelrahman Joe Ahmed Youssef | officer | Award / grant | 3,021 | 3,861 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-31 | Wood William David III | officer | Option exercise | 1,338 | 42,626 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-31 | Shivashankar Sethuram | officer | Option exercise | 723 | 24,528 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-31 | Badger Kyle C | officer | Option exercise | 622 | 115,413 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-31 | Robertson Chris J | officer | Option exercise | 450 | 16,587 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-31 | Abdelrahman Joe Ahmed Youssef | officer | Option exercise | 419 | 20,150 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.