Issued 2026-09-16 at $393.72 · now $393.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AGX has typically landed between $341.27 and $504.97 — a range of −13.3% to +28.3% from the issuance price $393.72.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($393.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AGX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $393.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $393.72 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $406.08 (+3.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $377.2–$434.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $341.27–$504.97
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-29 | −37.7% | −37.7% | +0.9% |
| 2017-11-10 | −35.9% | −35.9% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-06 | −35.8% | −35.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2006-12-05 | +73.1% | +0.0% | +73.1% |
| 2006-11-14 | +68.3% | +0.0% | +68.3% |
| 2006-11-13 | +68.3% | +0.0% | +68.3% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
45%
−0.3%
n=20
Feb
60%
+3.4%
n=20
Mar
70%
+3.3%
n=20
Apr
50%
+1.3%
n=20
May
45%
+2.8%
n=20
Jun
65%
+6.1%
n=20
Jul
55%
−0.1%
n=20
Aug
60%
+1.0%
n=20
Sep
50%
+4.5%
n=20
Oct
60%
+4.9%
n=20
Nov
70%
+3.8%
n=20
Dec
55%
+3.6%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Sale | 5,716 @ $579.64 | $3.3M | −69.3% of holding | −28.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,533 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Griffin William F Jr | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $760.43 | $15.2M | −32.8% of holding | −23.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,976 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Griffin William F Jr | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $725.85 | $21.8M | −33.0% of holding | −18.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,976 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $699.00 | $1.4M | −29.1% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,880 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-17 | Baugher Joshua Scott | officer | Sale | 455 @ $732.83 | $333K | −20.3% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,784 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Baugher Joshua Scott | officer | Sale | 305 @ $734.00 | $224K | −17.1% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Sweeney Karen | director | Sale | 300 @ $705.00 | $212K | −16.2% of holding | −16.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,548 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-16 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Sale | 4,728 @ $708.65 | $3.4M | −40.7% of holding | −19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,880 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Watson David Hibbert | director | Sale | 1,880 @ $707.35 | $1.3M | −4.5% of holding | −19.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,005 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-15 | Watson David Hibbert | director | Sale | 9,993 @ $651.22 | $6.5M | −20.0% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,005 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Flanders Cynthia | director | Sale | 2,596 @ $666.31 | $1.7M | −10.1% of holding | −20.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,144 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Griffin William F Jr | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $643.46 | $32.2M | −35.5% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,976 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $628.36 | $1.9M | −30.5% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,847 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | Larroque Alexander Lisa | director | Sale | 350 @ $630.58 | $221K | −50.0% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Leimkuhler William F. | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $617.41 | $3.1M | −12.0% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,495 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Leimkuhler William F. | director | Sale | 400 @ $621.14 | $248K | −44.4% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-28 | Leimkuhler William F. | director | Sale | 400 @ $618.61 | $247K | −44.4% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-27 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Sale | 2,698 @ $664.84 | $1.8M | −57.4% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Collins Charles Edwin IV | officer | Sale | 11,068 @ $621.61 | $6.9M | −26.7% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,320 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Sale | 3,636 @ $615.40 | $2.2M | −100.0% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-20 | Collins Charles Edwin IV | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $610.00 | $1.5M | −7.6% of holding | +1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,320 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Watson David Hibbert | director | Sale | 19,310 @ $602.11 | $11.6M | −27.9% of holding | +7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,998 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Baugher Joshua Scott | officer | Sale | 600 @ $605.60 | $363K | −28.9% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,479 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Leimkuhler William F. | director | Sale | 8,444 @ $598.49 | $5.1M | −16.9% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,495 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Sale | 2,581 @ $552.73 | $1.4M | −19.2% of holding | +11.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,847 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-31 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Sale | 4,556 @ $539.85 | $2.5M | −55.6% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,636 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $360.78 | $1.8M | −37.9% of holding | +25.7% | +30.6% | 8,192 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Flanders Cynthia | director | Sale | 19,000 @ $386.70 | $7.3M | −42.0% of holding | +9.7% | +43.7% | 26,207 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Sale | 2,700 @ $380.60 | $1.0M | −17.0% of holding | +11.6% | +48.2% | 13,192 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | Leimkuhler William F. | director | Sale | 11,044 @ $379.15 | $4.2M | −18.1% of holding | +8.9% | +49.4% | 49,939 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-13 | Leimkuhler William F. | director | Sale | 4,212 @ $320.53 | $1.4M | −6.5% of holding | +33.7% | +65.9% | 60,983 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Leimkuhler William F. | director | Sale | 2,164 @ $318.28 | $689K | −3.2% of holding | +37.3% | +88.3% | 65,195 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Sale | 6,595 @ $313.71 | $2.1M | −45.7% of holding | +17.3% | +82.2% | 7,847 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-07 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $328.34 | $1.3M | −33.8% of holding | +4.5% | +77.3% | 7,847 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Leimkuhler William F. | director | Sale | 100 @ $337.93 | $34K | −10.0% of holding | +5.5% | +123.7% | 900 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-23 | Leimkuhler William F. | director | Sale | 100 @ $337.01 | $34K | −10.0% of holding | +5.5% | +123.7% | 900 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | QUINN JAMES W | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $328.04 | $328K | −100.0% of holding | −6.5% | +88.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-20 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Sale | 6,493 @ $294.39 | $1.9M | −39.6% of holding | +20.5% | +118.9% | 9,897 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-17 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $292.00 | $584K | −10.9% of holding | +22.0% | +110.8% | 16,390 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Collins Charles Edwin IV | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $309.37 | $3.1M | −32.3% of holding | +6.4% | +84.6% | 21,006 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-13 | Collins Charles Edwin IV | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $292.09 | $2.9M | −32.3% of holding | +15.2% | +100.2% | 21,006 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Watson David Hibbert | director | Sale | 4,441 @ $277.01 | $1.2M | −8.5% of holding | +15.6% | +119.5% | 47,691 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Watson David Hibbert | director | Sale | 559 @ $272.27 | $152K | −100.0% of holding | +15.6% | +119.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Flanders Cynthia | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $271.96 | $4.1M | −47.7% of holding | +11.2% | +113.5% | 16,428 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-01 | Leimkuhler William F. | director | Sale | 11,802 @ $274.73 | $3.2M | −23.3% of holding | +5.2% | +107.7% | 38,834 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-01 | Collins Charles Edwin IV | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $275.00 | $1.4M | −19.2% of holding | +5.2% | +107.7% | 21,006 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | QUINN JAMES W | director | Sale | 13,444 @ $269.12 | $3.6M | −21.3% of holding | +5.2% | +113.3% | 49,570 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-29 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Sale | 4,698 @ $268.60 | $1.3M | −50.8% of holding | +4.6% | +103.0% | 4,556 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-24 | Collins Charles Edwin IV | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $267.00 | $1.3M | −19.2% of holding | +4.6% | +60.0% | 21,006 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-22 | QUINN JAMES W | director | Sale | 4,660 @ $259.35 | $1.2M | −100.0% of holding | +4.0% | +67.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-19 | QUINN JAMES W | director | Sale | 11,897 @ $260.73 | $3.1M | −71.9% of holding | +10.2% | +79.0% | 4,660 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $264.54 | $265K | −7.8% of holding | +10.2% | +79.0% | 11,896 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Sweeney Karen | director | Sale | 390 @ $264.25 | $103K | −22.9% of holding | +10.2% | +79.0% | 1,315 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Collins Charles Edwin IV | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $257.39 | $1.9M | −26.3% of holding | +8.8% | +84.4% | 21,006 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Sale | 2,609 @ $239.68 | $625K | −16.8% of holding | +23.3% | +100.4% | 12,896 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-31 | Collins Charles Edwin IV | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $245.00 | $1.2M | −25.6% of holding | −8.9% | +32.0% | 14,506 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-31 | Deily Richard H | officer | Sale | 1,604 @ $242.77 | $389K | −17.1% of holding | −8.9% | +32.0% | 7,802 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-30 | Flanders Cynthia | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $234.56 | $469K | −100.0% of holding | −1.6% | +38.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-29 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Sale | 2,621 @ $235.63 | $618K | −22.1% of holding | −6.5% | +41.1% | 9,254 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-29 | Collins Charles Edwin IV | officer | Sale | 1,500 @ $241.50 | $362K | −7.1% of holding | −6.5% | +41.1% | 19,506 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
229 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Collins Charles Edwin IV | officer | Award / grant | 3,506 | 6,404 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 1,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Option exercise | 4,772 | 7,305 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Option exercise | 944 | 8,249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Baugher Joshua Scott | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 1,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Baugher Joshua Scott | officer | Option exercise | 455 | 2,239 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Watson David Hibbert | director | Option exercise | 667 | 2,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Watson David Hibbert | director | Option exercise | 1,666 | 4,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Watson David Hibbert | director | Option exercise | 430 | 41,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Watson David Hibbert | director | Option exercise | 1,000 | 3,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Watson David Hibbert | director | Option exercise | 588 | 41,455 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Watson David Hibbert | director | Option exercise | 862 | 40,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Option exercise | 4,728 | 11,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | QUINN JAMES W | director | Option exercise | 530 | 834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | QUINN JAMES W | director | Award / grant | 189 | 1,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Leimkuhler William F. | director | Option exercise | 533 | 37,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Leimkuhler William F. | director | Option exercise | 530 | 834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Leimkuhler William F. | director | Award / grant | 189 | 1,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Flanders Cynthia | director | Gift | 1,000 | 25,207 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Flanders Cynthia | director | Option exercise | 533 | 25,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Flanders Cynthia | director | Option exercise | 530 | 834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Flanders Cynthia | director | Award / grant | 189 | 1,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Option exercise | 533 | 6,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | QUINN JAMES W | director | Option exercise | 533 | 15,580 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Award / grant | 189 | 1,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Option exercise | 533 | 2,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Option exercise | 530 | 834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Award / grant | 189 | 1,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Larroque Alexander Lisa | director | Option exercise | 533 | 883 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Larroque Alexander Lisa | director | Option exercise | 530 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Larroque Alexander Lisa | director | Award / grant | 189 | 189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sweeney Karen | director | Option exercise | 533 | 1,848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sweeney Karen | director | Option exercise | 530 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sweeney Karen | director | Award / grant | 189 | 189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Option exercise | 530 | 834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Getsinger Peter W | director | Gift | 500 | 6,347 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Jeffrey John Ronald Jr. | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 6,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Collins Charles Edwin IV | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 35,320 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.