Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.99 · now $10.99 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AGPU has typically landed between $6.67 and $16.69 — a range of −39.3% to +51.8% from the issuance price $10.99.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,092 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-04-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.99) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AGPU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.99 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $10.99 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.37 (-5.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.59–$12.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.67–$16.69
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2016-02-10 | −95.1% | −95.1% | +3.3% |
| 2016-02-11 | −94.9% | −94.9% | +8.4% |
| 2016-02-19 | −94.7% | −95.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2011-06-21 | +614.3% | +0.0% | +614.3% |
| 2011-06-20 | +600.0% | +0.0% | +614.3% |
| 2011-06-17 | +553.3% | −6.7% | +566.7% |
4,092 overlapping windows · 2010-04-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Zhu Theodore | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $10.88 | $54K | +44.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,314 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Zhu Theodore | director | Purchase | 3,750 @ $11.72 | $44K | +29.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 16,314 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
19 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | Hawryluk Matthew | director | Award / grant | 1,716 | 13,443 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | HANDLEY DANIEL E | director | Award / grant | 1,716 | 12,756 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Zhu Theodore | director | Award / grant | 2,420 | 7,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | ST. CLAIR GREGORY SR | director | Award / grant | 2,420 | 17,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Nuzum Charles Lee Sr | director | Award / grant | 2,420 | 22,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Zhu Theodore | director | Award / grant | 11,250 | 20,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Zhu Theodore | director | Award / grant | 3,750 | 8,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | ST. CLAIR GREGORY SR | director | Award / grant | 9,419 | 15,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | HANDLEY DANIEL E | director | Award / grant | 5,663 | 11,040 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Zhu Theodore | director | Award / grant | 5,144 | 5,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Hawryluk Matthew | director | Award / grant | 6,782 | 11,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Nuzum Charles Lee Sr | director | Award / grant | 14,082 | 20,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-16 | Yaukey-Witter Jeremy Reese | officer | Award / grant | 225,000 | 225,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Okamoto Kyle Robert | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 300,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Matthews Shawn | director | Award / grant | 1,166 | 1,166 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Rao Veena | director | Award / grant | 4,197 | 9,177 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | MIGLINO CHRISTOPHER | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 500,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Vennare Raymond F | director | Withheld for tax | 6,758 | 19,677 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | Vennare Raymond F | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 26,435 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.