AGOAssured Guaranty Ltd.Financial Services · Insurance - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $71.29 · now $71.29 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AGO has typically landed between $63.77 and $80.00 — a range of −10.5% to +12.2% from the issuance price $71.29.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($71.29) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AGO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $71.29 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$63.77worst · -10.5%$80best · +12.2%
  • now $71.29 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $72.04 (+1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $68.63–$75.45
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $63.77–$80
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-03−62.1%−62.1%+0.0%
2009-02-02−61.5%−61.5%+0.0%
2009-02-05−60.1%−60.1%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+221.2%−1.8%+221.2%
2009-03-09+212.4%+0.0%+227.1%
2009-03-11+169.4%+0.0%+169.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
−0.2%
n=20
Feb
70%
+2.6%
n=20
Mar
50%
+0.1%
n=20
Apr
65%
+3.7%
n=20
May
50%
−0.7%
n=20
Jun
40%
−2.1%
n=20
Jul
60%
−1.2%
n=20
Aug
45%
+4.0%
n=20
Sep
40%
−1.6%
n=20
Oct
65%
+2.9%
n=20
Nov
70%
+5.5%
n=20
Dec
60%
+3.0%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$91$712026-05-29: 1 insider sale, $78K — Radtke Lorin2026-05-11: 2 insider sales, $3.9M — Bailenson Robert …2026-03-30: 1 insider sale, $9.9M — BORGES FRANCISCO L2026-03-23: 1 insider sale, $2.4M — FREDERICO DOMINIC2026-03-20: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — FREDERICO DOMINIC2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $106K — Radtke Lorin2025-09-23: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — FREDERICO DOMINIC2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $3.3M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $2.1M2026-03: 4 open-market sales, $14.1M2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $4.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Radtke Lorin — Sale on 2026-05-29, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Bailenson Robert — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bailenson Robert — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector BORGES FRANCISCO L — Sale on 2026-03-30, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FREDERICO DOMINIC — Sale on 2026-03-23, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FREDERICO DOMINIC — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Radtke Lorin — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FREDERICO DOMINIC — Sale on 2025-09-23, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-29Radtke LorindirectorSale1,047 @ $74.32$78K−10.1% of holding+9.0%not yet — horizon still open9,307Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-11Bailenson RobertofficerSale32,353 @ $78.82$2.6M−11.2% of holding−1.4%not yet — horizon still open256,251Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11Bailenson RobertofficerSale17,647 @ $78.24$1.4M−5.8% of holding−1.4%not yet — horizon still open288,604Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-30BORGES FRANCISCO LdirectorSale123,750 @ $80.22$9.9M−41.2% of holding−11.0%not yet — horizon still open176,952Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-23FREDERICO DOMINICdirectorSale29,998 @ $81.41$2.4M−2.3% of holding−6.3%not yet — horizon still open1,264,295Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-20FREDERICO DOMINICdirectorSale20,002 @ $81.06$1.6M−1.5% of holding−6.2%not yet — horizon still open1,294,293Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-04Radtke LorindirectorSale1,219 @ $87.14$106K−12.8% of holding−2.9%−25.7%8,297Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-23FREDERICO DOMINICdirectorSale25,000 @ $83.83$2.1M−1.9% of holding−3.1%−1.4%1,287,803Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-11Bailenson RobertofficerSale40,000 @ $81.51$3.3M−12.1% of holding−2.6%−3.2%291,728Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-20FREDERICO DOMINICdirectorSale10,438 @ $86.13$899K−0.8% of holding−0.1%−8.0%1,337,635Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19FREDERICO DOMINICdirectorSale71,917 @ $86.11$6.2M−5.1% of holding−1.0%−11.4%1,348,073Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-13Bieling LauraofficerSale2,649 @ $87.76$232K−16.4% of holding−5.6%−16.2%13,462Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-10FREDERICO DOMINICdirectorSale34,000 @ $88.33$3.0M−2.5% of holding+1.3%−2.9%1,327,969Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

131 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20FREDERICO DOMINICdirectorGift23,3311,275,219Form 4
2026-07-01Rosenblum Benjamin G.officerWithheld for tax1,15661,448Form 4
2026-06-18BORGES FRANCISCO LdirectorGift2,588153,111Form 4
2026-06-17BORGES FRANCISCO LdirectorGift24,159155,699Form 4
2026-05-28BORGES FRANCISCO LdirectorGift74179,858Form 4
2026-05-21BORGES FRANCISCO LdirectorGift427179,932Form 4
2026-05-01Rosenblum Benjamin G.officerWithheld for tax63762,604Form 4
2026-05-01Shea Courtney C.directorAward / grant1,75610,751Form 4
2026-05-01Batten MarkdirectorAward / grant2,2405,174Form 4
2026-05-01Horn HollyofficerAward / grant2,75552,566Form 4
2026-05-01Donnarumma StephenofficerAward / grant3,490121,093Form 4
2026-05-01Bailenson RobertofficerAward / grant7,806306,251Form 4
2026-05-01FREDERICO DOMINICdirectorAward / grant33,9801,298,275Form 4
2026-05-01JONES THOMAS WdirectorAward / grant1,75647,305Form 4
2026-05-01Radtke LorindirectorAward / grant2,42210,354Form 4
2026-05-01Omura YukikodirectorAward / grant1,75611,240Form 4
2026-05-01Kreczko Alan JdirectorAward / grant3,93670,047Form 4
2026-05-01Ursano Antonio Jr.directorAward / grant1,7565,585Form 4
2026-05-01Chow LingofficerAward / grant5,970195,570Form 4
2026-05-01Howard Bonnie L.directorAward / grant1,75647,401Form 4
2026-05-01BORGES FRANCISCO LdirectorAward / grant5,934180,359Form 4
2026-04-30BORGES FRANCISCO LdirectorWithheld for tax1,277174,425Form 4
2026-04-30Batten MarkdirectorWithheld for tax9612,934Form 4
2026-04-30Omura YukikodirectorWithheld for tax7489,484Form 4
2026-04-30Kreczko Alan JdirectorWithheld for tax62666,111Form 4
2026-04-30Ursano Antonio Jr.directorWithheld for tax3653,829Form 4
2026-04-30JONES THOMAS WdirectorWithheld for tax36545,549Form 4
2026-04-30Radtke LorindirectorWithheld for tax3657,932Form 4
2026-04-30Shea Courtney C.directorWithheld for tax3658,995Form 4
2026-04-30Howard Bonnie L.directorWithheld for tax36545,645Form 4
2026-03-30BORGES FRANCISCO LdirectorGift1,250175,702Form 4
2026-02-23FREDERICO DOMINICdirectorWithheld for tax34,7851,314,295Form 4
2026-02-23Bailenson RobertofficerWithheld for tax9,494298,445Form 4
2026-02-23Chow LingofficerWithheld for tax7,835189,600Form 4
2026-02-23Donnarumma StephenofficerWithheld for tax4,244117,603Form 4
2026-02-23Rosenblum Benjamin G.officerWithheld for tax1,22063,241Form 4
2026-02-23Horn HollyofficerWithheld for tax44549,811Form 4
2026-02-23Bieling LauraofficerWithheld for tax41614,944Form 4
2026-02-23Gana Jorge A.officerWithheld for tax31829,545Form 4
2026-02-22FREDERICO DOMINICdirectorWithheld for tax29,0301,349,080Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.