Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.90 · now $3.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AGNT has typically landed between $2.95 and $4.94 — a range of −24.5% to +26.7% from the issuance price $3.90.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,142 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-02-07 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AGNT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.9 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.72 (-4.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.3–$4.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.95–$4.94
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2018-09-28 | −45.6% | −45.6% | +0.0% |
| 2018-09-27 | −42.1% | −42.1% | +0.0% |
| 2022-03-29 | −41.0% | −41.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-01-07 | +127.3% | +0.0% | +127.3% |
| 2020-08-03 | +126.8% | +0.0% | +126.8% |
| 2020-07-31 | +123.9% | +0.0% | +123.9% |
2,142 overlapping windows · 2018-02-07 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Gratitude 2022 Trust U/A/D 8/26/22 | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,693,290 @ $3.68 | $32.0M | −32.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,037,824 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
21 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Hill Jesse P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 333 | 10,045 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Hill Jesse P. | officer | Option exercise | 1,161 | 10,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | SANFORD PENNY | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 26,731,114 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Weakley Monica | director | Award / grant | 521 | 12,134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Weakley Monica | director | Award / grant | 99 | 8,219 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Weakley Monica | director | Option exercise | 11 | 12,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Forsythe Wendy | officer | Withheld for tax | 615 | 12,137 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Forsythe Wendy | officer | Option exercise | 2,287 | 12,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Pareja Leonardo | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,035 | 58,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | Pareja Leonardo | officer | Option exercise | 12,462 | 61,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Hill Jesse P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 537 | 9,217 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Hill Jesse P. | officer | Option exercise | 1,877 | 9,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Weakley Monica | director | Award / grant | 558 | 11,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Weakley Monica | director | Award / grant | 1,755 | 8,131 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Weakley Monica | director | Award / grant | 74 | 6,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | MILES RANDALL D | director | Option exercise | 41,322 | 528,512 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-14 | MILES RANDALL D | director | Option exercise | 41,332 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Weakley Monica | director | Award / grant | 293 | 11,055 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Weakley Monica | director | Award / grant | 82 | 6,302 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-14 | Hill Jesse P. | officer | Withheld for tax | 333 | 7,877 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-14 | Hill Jesse P. | officer | Option exercise | 1,161 | 8,210 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.