AGNCAGNC Investment Corp.Real Estate · REIT - Mortgageas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.88 · now $9.88 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AGNC has typically landed between $8.65 and $11.06 — a range of −12.5% to +11.9% from the issuance price $9.88.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,592 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-05-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AGNC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$8.65worst · -12.5%$11.06best · +11.9%
  • now $9.88 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.01 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.56–$10.46
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.65–$11.06
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,592 windows spanning 2008-05-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-19−51.4%−51.4%+1.0%
2020-02-18−49.8%−49.8%+0.4%
2020-02-20−49.5%−51.8%+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-03+35.7%+0.0%+35.7%
2023-10-30+30.9%+0.0%+30.9%
2020-04-01+30.5%+0.0%+35.5%

4,592 overlapping windows · 2008-05-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+2.8%
n=18
Feb
56%
−0.9%
n=18
Mar
72%
−0.1%
n=18
Apr
56%
+2.5%
n=18
May
67%
+0.3%
n=18
Jun
68%
+1.6%
n=19
Jul
58%
+1.9%
n=19
Aug
63%
+1.8%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.6%
n=19
Oct
50%
−1.1%
n=18
Nov
72%
+3.7%
n=18
Dec
56%
+1.9%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$11$82026-08-19: 2 insider sales, $166K — Bell Bernice …2026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $55K — Bell Bernice2026-05-12: 1 insider sale, $108K — Bell Bernice2026-05-06: 1 insider sale, $237K — BLANK DONNA2026-05-04: 1 insider sale, $73K — Mullings Paul E2026-04-28: 1 insider sale, $714K — Federico Peter J2026-04-27: 1 insider sale, $710K — Federico Peter J2026-04-24: 1 insider sale, $703K — Federico Peter J2026-02-19: 1 insider sale, $170K — Bell Bernice2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $400K — Bell Bernice2026-01-29: 1 insider sale, $8.3M — Kain Gary D2026-01-28: 2 insider sales, $909K — Pollack Kenneth L., Bell Bernice2025-11-10: 1 insider sale, $103K — Bell Bernice2025-11-06: 1 insider sale, $102K — Bell Bernice2025-10-28: 1 insider sale, $472K — Federico Peter J2025-10-27: 1 insider sale, $470K — Federico Peter J2025-10-24: 1 insider sale, $465K — Federico Peter J2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $298K2025-10: 3 open-market sales, $1.4M2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $205K2026-01: 3 open-market sales, $9.2M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $570K2026-04: 3 open-market sales, $2.1M2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $418K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $55K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $166K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Bell Bernice — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bell Bernice — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bell Bernice — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bell Bernice — Sale on 2026-05-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector BLANK DONNA — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Mullings Paul E — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Federico Peter J — Sale on 2026-04-28, filed same daydirector Federico Peter J — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Federico Peter J — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Bell Bernice — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed same dayofficer Bell Bernice — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kain Gary D — Sale on 2026-01-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Pollack Kenneth L. — Sale on 2026-01-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bell Bernice — Sale on 2026-01-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bell Bernice — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed same dayofficer Bell Bernice — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Federico Peter J — Sale on 2025-10-28, filed same daydirector Federico Peter J — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Federico Peter J — Sale on 2025-10-24, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19Bell BerniceofficerSale10,000 @ $11.05$111K−2.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open399,639Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-19Bell BerniceofficerSale5,000 @ $11.10$56K−1.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open394,639Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Bell BerniceofficerSale5,000 @ $11.00$55K−1.2% of holding−4.7%not yet — horizon still open406,947Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-12Bell BerniceofficerSale10,000 @ $10.79$108K−2.4% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open406,560Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-06BLANK DONNAdirectorSale22,000 @ $10.78$237K−18.6% of holding−5.1%not yet — horizon still open96,471Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04Mullings Paul EdirectorSale6,800 @ $10.74$73K−4.3% of holding−8.4%not yet — horizon still open149,886Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-28Federico Peter JdirectorSale64,412 @ $11.08$714K−3.2% of holding−9.8%not yet — horizon still open1,927,083Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-27Federico Peter JdirectorSale64,411 @ $11.03$710K−3.1% of holding−9.2%not yet — horizon still open1,991,495Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-24Federico Peter JdirectorSale64,411 @ $10.91$703K−3.0% of holding−9.5%not yet — horizon still open2,055,906Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Bell BerniceofficerSale15,000 @ $11.36$170K−3.9% of holding−7.9%−8.7%367,330Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-17Bell BerniceofficerSale35,397 @ $11.29$400K−8.5% of holding−4.7%−9.5%382,330Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-29Kain Gary DdirectorSale700,000 @ $11.91$8.3M−24.2% of holding−3.8%−11.9%2,189,091Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-28Pollack Kenneth L.officerSale50,000 @ $12.11$606K−8.3% of holding−3.5%−10.1%552,297Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-28Bell BerniceofficerSale25,000 @ $12.14$304K−4.8% of holding−3.5%−10.1%491,728Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-10Bell BerniceofficerSale10,000 @ $10.32$103K−2.9% of holding+1.6%+1.3%339,719Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-06Bell BerniceofficerSale10,000 @ $10.21$102K−2.8% of holding+2.0%+2.2%349,719Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-28Federico Peter JdirectorSale45,798 @ $10.30$472K−2.9% of holding+5.9%+11.7%1,511,603Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-27Federico Peter JdirectorSale45,798 @ $10.27$470K−2.9% of holding+3.7%+9.5%1,557,401Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-24Federico Peter JdirectorSale45,797 @ $10.16$465K−2.8% of holding+3.3%+10.5%1,603,199Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-08Bell BerniceofficerSale31,500 @ $9.46$298K−8.2% of holding+8.9%+19.0%354,196Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-28FISK JOHN DdirectorSale20,278 @ $9.65$196K−15.3% of holding+1.2%+25.1%112,685Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-25Mullings Paul EdirectorSale11,000 @ $9.61$106K−7.9% of holding+1.7%+21.1%128,511Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-06BLANK DONNAdirectorSale17,218 @ $8.67$149K−16.0% of holding−0.5%+5.0%90,345Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-02Mullings Paul EdirectorSale13,500 @ $8.84$119K−9.1% of holding−1.5%+1.6%135,146Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-01Bell BerniceofficerSale8,000 @ $8.88$71K−2.1% of holding−4.5%−1.5%374,019Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-29Federico Peter JdirectorSale48,334 @ $9.02$436K−2.9% of holding−4.7%−3.4%1,594,754Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-29Pollack Kenneth L.officerSale17,500 @ $9.03$158K−3.8% of holding−4.7%−3.4%447,841Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-29Bell BerniceofficerSale10,000 @ $9.06$91K−2.6% of holding−4.7%−3.4%382,019Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-28Federico Peter JdirectorSale48,333 @ $8.88$429K−2.9% of holding−4.8%−1.8%1,643,088Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-25Federico Peter JdirectorSale48,333 @ $8.70$420K−2.8% of holding−4.6%+0.7%1,691,421Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-26Bell BerniceofficerSale10,000 @ $10.57$106K−2.9% of holding−1.7%−8.7%331,504Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-05SPARK FRANCESdirectorSale5,000 @ $10.10$50K−6.2% of holding+8.5%−4.8%75,919Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-30Bell BerniceofficerSale8,000 @ $10.02$80K−2.1% of holding+8.0%−0.6%377,226Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-30Bell BerniceofficerSale5,000 @ $10.07$50K−1.3% of holding+8.0%−0.6%372,226Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

93 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-04-16SPARK FRANCESdirectorAward / grant17,045126,634Form 4
2026-04-16Mullings Paul EdirectorAward / grant17,045156,686Form 4
2026-04-16Larocca PruedirectorAward / grant17,045162,123Form 4
2026-04-16JOHNSON ANDREW A JRdirectorAward / grant17,045113,193Form 4
2026-04-16Hurtsellers ChristinedirectorAward / grant17,04517,045Form 4
2026-04-16BLANK DONNAdirectorAward / grant17,045118,471Form 4
2026-04-16Davis Morris A.directorAward / grant17,04517,045Form 4
2026-04-16Larocca PruedirectorAward / grant17,045162,123Form 4
2026-04-16BLANK DONNAdirectorAward / grant17,045118,471Form 4
2026-04-16Davis Morris A.directorAward / grant17,04517,045Form 4
2026-04-16FISK JOHN DdirectorAward / grant17,045136,539Form 4
2026-04-16Hurtsellers ChristinedirectorAward / grant17,04517,045Form 4
2026-04-16Mullings Paul EdirectorAward / grant17,045156,686Form 4
2026-04-16JOHNSON ANDREW A JRdirectorAward / grant17,045113,193Form 4
2026-04-16SPARK FRANCESdirectorAward / grant17,045126,634Form 4
2026-04-16FISK JOHN DdirectorAward / grant17,045136,539Form 4
2026-03-16Federico Peter JdirectorWithheld for tax89,8732,111,757Form 4
2026-03-16Kain Gary DdirectorWithheld for tax58,5121,956,773Form 4
2026-03-16Bell BerniceofficerWithheld for tax48,988410,802Form 4
2026-03-16Reid SeanofficerWithheld for tax35,030442,017Form 4
2026-03-16Pollack Kenneth L.officerWithheld for tax29,093546,390Form 4
2026-03-02Pollack Kenneth L.officerAward / grant60,538571,389Form 4
2026-03-02Bell BerniceofficerAward / grant89,686457,016Form 4
2026-03-02Reid SeanofficerAward / grant80,717475,299Form 4
2026-03-02Kain Gary DdirectorAward / grant62,1522,010,528Form 4
2026-03-02Bell BerniceofficerAward / grant89,686457,016Form 4
2026-03-02Pollack Kenneth L.officerAward / grant60,538571,389Form 4
2026-03-02Kain Gary DdirectorAward / grant62,1522,010,528Form 4
2026-03-02Federico Peter JdirectorAward / grant184,9772,192,878Form 4
2026-03-02Reid SeanofficerAward / grant80,717475,299Form 4
2026-03-02Federico Peter JdirectorAward / grant184,9772,192,878Form 4
2026-02-17Federico Peter JdirectorWithheld for tax299,9922,007,901Form 4
2026-02-17Kain Gary DdirectorWithheld for tax251,9891,948,376Form 4
2026-02-17Bell BerniceofficerWithheld for tax78,429417,727Form 4
2026-02-17Reid SeanofficerWithheld for tax53,370394,582Form 4
2026-02-17Pollack Kenneth L.officerWithheld for tax46,566510,851Form 4
2026-01-21Kain Gary DdirectorAward / grant633,6052,889,091Form 4
2026-01-21Reid SeanofficerAward / grant117,087445,047Form 4
2026-01-21Bell BerniceofficerAward / grant168,878516,728Form 4
2026-01-21Pollack Kenneth L.officerAward / grant117,087602,297Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.