AGLAgilon Health, Inc.Healthcare · Medical - Care Facilitiesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $89.66 · now $89.66 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AGL has typically landed between $52.33 and $125.15 — a range of −41.6% to +39.6% from the issuance price $89.66.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,340 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($89.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AGL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $89.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$52.33worst · -41.6%$125.15best · +39.6%
  • now $89.66 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $87.22 (-2.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $73.71–$100.73
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $52.33–$125.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,340 windows spanning 2021-04-15 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-01-15−65.3%−65.3%+0.0%
2026-01-16−63.1%−65.3%+0.0%
2025-07-08−62.8%−63.2%+0.0%
3 best
2026-04-10+265.6%+0.0%+265.6%
2026-05-05+262.2%+0.0%+262.2%
2026-04-27+256.9%+0.0%+256.9%

1,340 overlapping windows · 2021-04-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+8.0%
n=5
Feb
40%
−2.5%
n=5
Mar
60%
+5.9%
n=5
Apr
40%
+42.8%
n=5
May
67%
+33.4%
n=6
Jun
83%
+6.3%
n=6
Jul
50%
−2.6%
n=6
Aug
0%
−17.1%
n=6
Sep
50%
−5.6%
n=6
Oct
20%
−15.6%
n=5
Nov
0%
−19.8%
n=5
Dec
60%
+5.9%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$130$82026-03-09: 6 insider purchases, $0 — Venkatachaliah Girish, Shaker Benjamin, Zamore Denise …2026-03-02: 1 insider purchase, $301K — Shaker Benjamin2025-11-12: 1 insider purchase, $51K — Wulf John William2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $51K2026-03: 7 open-market purchases, $301K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Venkatachaliah Girish — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Shaker Benjamin — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zamore Denise — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Shaker Benjamin — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zamore Denise — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Venkatachaliah Girish — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Shaker Benjamin — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Wulf John William — Purchase on 2025-11-12, filed 79 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-09Venkatachaliah GirishofficerPurchase18,448—+6.9% of holding+23.2%+510.9%285,084Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Shaker BenjaminofficerPurchase18,448—+1.3% of holding+23.2%+510.9%1,386,122Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Zamore DeniseofficerPurchase5,535—+1.2% of holding+23.2%+510.9%448,660Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Shaker BenjaminofficerPurchase18,448—+1.3% of holding+23.2%+510.9%1,386,122Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Zamore DeniseofficerPurchase5,535—+1.2% of holding+23.2%+510.9%448,660Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Venkatachaliah GirishofficerPurchase18,448—+6.9% of holding+23.2%+510.9%285,084Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Shaker BenjaminofficerPurchase500,000 @ $0.60$301K+57.6% of holding−43.6%+456.8%1,367,674Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Wulf John WilliamdirectorPurchase81,000 @ $0.63$51K+28.4% of holding+14.7%+444.2%365,857Form 4 · filed 79 days after the trade
2025-03-14Shaker BenjaminofficerPurchase11,786—+2.6% of holding+42.2%−90.7%461,201Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14Venkatachaliah GirishofficerPurchase9,429—+6.3% of holding+42.2%−90.7%158,431Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14Sell StevendirectorPurchase42,426—+12.9% of holding+42.2%−90.7%370,873Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14Venkatachaliah GirishofficerPurchase9,429—+6.3% of holding+42.2%−90.7%158,431Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14Shaker BenjaminofficerPurchase11,786—+2.6% of holding+42.2%−90.7%461,201Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-14Sell StevendirectorPurchase42,426—+12.9% of holding+42.2%−90.7%370,873Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-13McLoughlin KarendirectorPurchase25,000 @ $2.20$55K+51.9% of holding+33.9%−2.2%73,166Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-11Battaglia SilvanadirectorPurchase25,062 @ $2.01$50K+61.0% of holding+42.0%+9.7%66,144Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09MCKENZIE DIANAdirectorPurchase7,500 @ $2.20$16K+14.6% of holding+12.2%−2.7%58,819Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-05Wulf John WilliamdirectorPurchase45,000 @ $2.18$98K+27.9% of holding−0.1%+3.1%206,133Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2024-11-25MCKENZIE DIANAdirectorPurchase12,500 @ $2.28$28K+32.2% of holding−17.3%−1.0%51,319Form 4 · filed 16 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

69 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-16Gertsch TimothyofficerWithheld for tax1714,152Form 4
2026-08-01Zamore DeniseofficerWithheld for tax3766,075Form 4
2026-07-01Schwaneke Jeffrey A.officerWithheld for tax2,311138,031Form 4
2026-06-02Wulf John WilliamdirectorAward / grant2,13316,765Form 4
2026-06-02McLoughlin KarendirectorAward / grant2,1338,207Form 4
2026-06-02WILLIAMS RONALD AdirectorAward / grant2,133149,141Form 4
2026-06-02Battaglia SilvanadirectorAward / grant2,1337,926Form 4
2026-06-02MCKENZIE DIANAdirectorAward / grant2,1337,633Form 4
2026-06-02Mansukani SharaddirectorAward / grant2,13356,242Form 4
2026-06-01Zamore DeniseofficerWithheld for tax48566,112Form 4
2026-05-24Gertsch TimothyofficerWithheld for tax814,169Form 4
2026-05-07O'Rourke Timothy PatrickdirectorAward / grant120,000120,000Form 4
2026-05-07O'Rourke Timothy PatrickdirectorAward / grant200,000320,000Form 4
2026-04-15Shaker BenjaminofficerWithheld for tax571122,850Form 4
2026-04-15Venkatachaliah GirishofficerWithheld for tax33038,236Form 4
2026-04-15Zamore DeniseofficerWithheld for tax22066,597Form 4
2026-04-15Gertsch TimothyofficerWithheld for tax12214,177Form 4
2026-04-14Shaker BenjaminofficerWithheld for tax104123,421Form 4
2026-04-14Venkatachaliah GirishofficerWithheld for tax9638,566Form 4
2026-04-14Gertsch TimothyofficerWithheld for tax2514,299Form 4
2026-04-14Zamore DeniseofficerWithheld for tax2066,817Form 4
2026-04-01Shaker BenjaminofficerWithheld for tax1,66453,525Form 4
2026-04-01Schwaneke Jeffrey A.officerWithheld for tax1,66265,342Form 4
2026-04-01Zamore DeniseofficerWithheld for tax1,02416,837Form 4
2026-04-01Venkatachaliah GirishofficerWithheld for tax48010,662Form 4
2026-04-01Gertsch TimothyofficerWithheld for tax2664,324Form 4
2026-04-01Venkatachaliah GirishofficerAward / grant28,00038,662Form 4
2026-04-01Zamore DeniseofficerAward / grant50,00066,837Form 4
2026-04-01Gertsch TimothyofficerAward / grant10,00014,324Form 4
2026-04-01Schwaneke Jeffrey A.officerAward / grant75,000140,342Form 4
2026-04-01Shaker BenjaminofficerAward / grant70,000123,525Form 4
2026-03-09Venkatachaliah GirishofficerWithheld for tax6,477278,607Form 4
2026-03-09Shaker BenjaminofficerWithheld for tax6,3481,379,774Form 4
2026-03-09Zamore DeniseofficerWithheld for tax2,056446,604Form 4
2026-01-10Schwaneke Jeffrey A.officerAward / grant600,0001,675,122Form 4
2025-08-16Gertsch TimothyofficerWithheld for tax406114,752Form 4
2025-08-01Zamore DeniseofficerWithheld for tax915443,125Form 4
2025-07-01Schwaneke Jeffrey A.officerWithheld for tax46,0991,075,122Form 4
2025-05-28Schwaneke Jeffrey A.officerWithheld for tax9,3311,121,221Form 4
2025-05-28WILLIAMS RONALD AdirectorAward / grant78,7243,675,257Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.