Issued 2026-09-16 at $32.95 · now $32.95 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AGIO has typically landed between $25.61 and $41.70 — a range of −22.3% to +26.6% from the issuance price $32.95.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,286 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-07-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($32.95) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AGIO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $32.95 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $32.95 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $33.1 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $30.36–$35.85
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $25.61–$41.7
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,286 windows spanning 2013-07-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-10-21 | −48.6% | −48.6% | +4.7% |
| 2024-12-02 | −45.9% | −45.9% | +4.7% |
| 2025-11-18 | −45.6% | −50.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2013-12-13 | +115.6% | +0.0% | +115.6% |
| 2013-12-12 | +83.2% | +0.0% | +83.2% |
| 2014-02-05 | +68.7% | +0.0% | +68.7% |
3,286 overlapping windows · 2013-07-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- March 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Investigate the Efficacy, Pharmacokinetics, and Safety of Mitapivat in Pediatric Participants With α- or β-Non-Transfusion-Dependent Thalassemia (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- June 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Investigate the Efficacy, Pharmacokinetics, and Safety of Mitapivat in Pediatric Participants With Transfusion-Dependent Alpha- or Beta-Thalassemia (α- or β-TDT) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- August 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Study to Investigate the Effect of Mitapivat on Transfusion Burden in Subjects With Sickle Cell Disease (SCD) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
85%
+4.0%
n=13
Feb
69%
+6.1%
n=13
Mar
54%
−0.2%
n=13
Apr
54%
−0.7%
n=13
May
62%
+5.2%
n=13
Jun
69%
+6.2%
n=13
Jul
38%
−2.6%
n=13
Aug
43%
−3.0%
n=14
Sep
50%
+3.8%
n=14
Oct
38%
−0.7%
n=13
Nov
62%
+3.3%
n=13
Dec
38%
−5.1%
n=13
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Sale | 30,000 @ $30.48 | $914K | −35.4% of holding | +8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,645 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Sale | 4,007 @ $37.56 | $151K | −4.5% of holding | −19.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Goff Brian | director | Sale | 12,472 @ $34.71 | $433K | −6.6% of holding | −31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,604 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Goff Brian | director | Sale | 6,596 @ $34.71 | $229K | −3.5% of holding | −31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 184,508 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Burns James William | officer | Sale | 3,280 @ $34.71 | $114K | −6.2% of holding | −31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,306 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Milanova Tsveta | officer | Sale | 3,262 @ $34.71 | $113K | −6.5% of holding | −31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,829 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Jones Cecilia | officer | Sale | 3,141 @ $34.71 | $109K | −5.4% of holding | −31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 54,998 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Viswanadhan Krishnan | director | Sale | 2,959 @ $34.71 | $103K | −22.3% of holding | −31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,282 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Sale | 2,940 @ $34.71 | $102K | −3.5% of holding | −31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,277 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Viswanadhan Krishnan | director | Sale | 2,959 @ $27.80 | $82K | −36.5% of holding | +28.7% | +5.6% | 5,141 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Washburn Theodore James Jr. | officer | Sale | 5,272 @ $28.88 | $152K | −85.9% of holding | +23.5% | +7.6% | 868 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Goff Brian | director | Sale | 8,267 @ $28.96 | $239K | −5.0% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 157,466 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Goff Brian | director | Sale | 5,918 @ $28.96 | $171K | −3.5% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 164,548 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Goff Brian | director | Sale | 3,870 @ $28.96 | $112K | −2.6% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 147,733 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Milanova Tsveta | officer | Sale | 1,681 @ $28.96 | $49K | −4.2% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 38,778 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Sale | 1,681 @ $28.96 | $49K | −2.3% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 71,593 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Jones Cecilia | officer | Sale | 1,681 @ $28.96 | $49K | −3.8% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 42,785 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Burns James William | officer | Sale | 1,681 @ $28.96 | $49K | −4.2% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 38,516 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Jones Cecilia | officer | Sale | 1,573 @ $28.96 | $46K | −3.1% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 49,328 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Sale | 1,187 @ $28.96 | $34K | −1.7% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 67,608 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Burns James William | officer | Sale | 1,187 @ $28.96 | $34K | −3.3% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 34,531 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Burns James William | officer | Sale | 1,187 @ $28.96 | $34K | −2.8% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 41,329 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Milanova Tsveta | officer | Sale | 1,187 @ $28.96 | $34K | −2.8% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 41,591 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Sale | 1,187 @ $28.96 | $34K | −1.6% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 74,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Jones Cecilia | officer | Sale | 1,187 @ $28.96 | $34K | −2.5% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 45,598 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Burns James William | officer | Sale | 1,163 @ $28.96 | $34K | −2.6% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 44,086 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Washburn Theodore James Jr. | officer | Sale | 798 @ $28.96 | $23K | −11.5% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 6,140 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Washburn Theodore James Jr. | officer | Sale | 727 @ $28.96 | $21K | −14.6% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 4,243 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Washburn Theodore James Jr. | officer | Sale | 698 @ $28.96 | $20K | −21.2% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 2,595 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Jones Cecilia | officer | Sale | 594 @ $28.96 | $17K | −1.5% of holding | +20.8% | +3.0% | 38,800 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Milanova Tsveta | officer | Sale | 2,872 @ $27.02 | $78K | −7.6% of holding | +1.1% | +46.8% | 34,793 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Goff Brian | director | Sale | 12,473 @ $27.09 | $338K | −8.4% of holding | −0.3% | +28.5% | 136,583 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Goff Brian | director | Sale | 6,230 @ $27.09 | $169K | −4.2% of holding | −0.3% | +28.5% | 143,103 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Burns James William | officer | Sale | 2,932 @ $27.09 | $79K | −8.5% of holding | −0.3% | +28.5% | 31,718 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Jones Cecilia | officer | Sale | 2,932 @ $27.09 | $79K | −7.3% of holding | −0.3% | +28.5% | 37,394 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Sale | 2,932 @ $27.09 | $79K | −4.3% of holding | −0.3% | +28.5% | 64,795 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Milanova Tsveta | officer | Sale | 2,932 @ $27.09 | $79K | −9.1% of holding | −0.3% | +28.5% | 29,190 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Scadden David | director | Sale | 200 @ $43.84 | $9K | −1.1% of holding | −37.3% | −44.2% | 17,603 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Sale | 2,454 @ $43.78 | $107K | −3.8% of holding | −38.3% | −44.7% | 61,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Sale | 200 @ $43.81 | $9K | −0.3% of holding | −35.6% | −42.4% | 61,727 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Sale | 3,302 @ $43.92 | $145K | −5.1% of holding | −32.5% | −39.3% | 61,727 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Scadden David | director | Sale | 200 @ $41.00 | $8K | −1.1% of holding | −5.0% | −24.2% | 17,603 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Scadden David | director | Sale | 200 @ $40.00 | $8K | −1.1% of holding | +1.4% | −13.7% | 17,603 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Jones Cecilia | officer | Sale | 3,651 @ $36.77 | $134K | −9.7% of holding | +7.1% | −20.0% | 33,870 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-05 | Washburn Theodore James Jr. | officer | Sale | 8,546 @ $36.87 | $315K | −90.8% of holding | +9.5% | −26.2% | 868 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Scadden David | director | Sale | 200 @ $40.00 | $8K | −1.1% of holding | −3.5% | −29.7% | 17,603 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Goff Brian | director | Sale | 11,085 @ $36.67 | $406K | −8.2% of holding | −1.0% | −34.2% | 123,528 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | Scadden David | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $40.00 | $56K | −7.4% of holding | −11.4% | −39.6% | 17,603 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Sale | 11,067 @ $37.93 | $420K | −15.1% of holding | −6.5% | −38.1% | 62,118 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-09 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Sale | 847 @ $38.76 | $33K | −1.4% of holding | −6.5% | −38.1% | 61,271 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Sale | 4,091 @ $34.17 | $140K | −6.3% of holding | +6.0% | −32.4% | 61,271 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | Goff Brian | director | Sale | 12,471 @ $33.54 | $418K | −10.6% of holding | +14.1% | −38.9% | 105,401 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | Goff Brian | director | Sale | 6,229 @ $33.54 | $209K | −5.3% of holding | +14.1% | −38.9% | 111,922 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Sale | 2,909 @ $33.54 | $98K | −4.9% of holding | +14.1% | −38.9% | 56,988 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | Burns James William | officer | Sale | 2,799 @ $33.54 | $94K | −8.9% of holding | +14.1% | −38.9% | 28,650 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | Milanova Tsveta | officer | Sale | 2,770 @ $33.54 | $93K | −9.6% of holding | +14.1% | −38.9% | 26,122 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | Jones Cecilia | officer | Sale | 1,780 @ $33.54 | $60K | −5.6% of holding | +14.1% | −38.9% | 30,049 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-10 | FOUSE JACQUALYN A | director | Sale | 7,497 @ $25.90 | $194K | −4.8% of holding | +4.0% | +35.3% | 149,220 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-03 | Goff Brian | director | Sale | 8,794 @ $35.54 | $313K | −8.7% of holding | −13.7% | +8.2% | 92,345 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Goff Brian | director | Sale | 4,153 @ $35.54 | $148K | −4.8% of holding | −13.7% | +8.2% | 83,139 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
228 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Backstrom Jay T. | director | Option exercise | 1,447 | 2,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-08 | Backstrom Jay T. | director | Award / grant | 1,447 | 1,447 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Option exercise | 8,375 | 88,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Option exercise | 8,375 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Jones Cecilia | officer | Award / grant | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Option exercise | 3,000 | 9,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Gheuens Sarah | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Burns James William | officer | Option exercise | 3,000 | 9,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Burns James William | officer | Award / grant | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Goff Brian | director | Option exercise | 39,000 | 39,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Goff Brian | director | Award / grant | 39,000 | 39,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Viswanadhan Krishnan | director | Option exercise | 3,000 | 9,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Viswanadhan Krishnan | director | Award / grant | 3,000 | 3,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Smith Cynthia | director | Option exercise | 2,816 | 15,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Smith Cynthia | director | Option exercise | 2,816 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Smith Cynthia | director | Award / grant | 2,927 | 2,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Smith Cynthia | director | Award / grant | 14,950 | 14,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Scadden David | director | Option exercise | 2,816 | 20,419 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Scadden David | director | Option exercise | 2,816 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Scadden David | director | Award / grant | 2,927 | 2,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Scadden David | director | Award / grant | 14,950 | 14,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Owen Adams Catherine | director | Option exercise | 2,816 | 10,865 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Owen Adams Catherine | director | Option exercise | 2,816 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Owen Adams Catherine | director | Award / grant | 2,927 | 2,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Owen Adams Catherine | director | Award / grant | 14,950 | 14,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ho Maykin | director | Option exercise | 2,816 | 19,848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ho Maykin | director | Option exercise | 2,816 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ho Maykin | director | Award / grant | 2,927 | 2,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Ho Maykin | director | Award / grant | 14,950 | 14,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | FOUSE JACQUALYN A | director | Option exercise | 2,816 | 154,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | FOUSE JACQUALYN A | director | Option exercise | 2,816 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | FOUSE JACQUALYN A | director | Award / grant | 2,927 | 2,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | FOUSE JACQUALYN A | director | Award / grant | 14,950 | 14,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Foster-Cheek Kaye I | director | Option exercise | 2,816 | 10,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Foster-Cheek Kaye I | director | Option exercise | 2,816 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Foster-Cheek Kaye I | director | Award / grant | 2,927 | 2,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Foster-Cheek Kaye I | director | Award / grant | 14,950 | 14,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | CAPELLO JEFFREY D | director | Option exercise | 2,816 | 10,865 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | CAPELLO JEFFREY D | director | Option exercise | 2,816 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | CAPELLO JEFFREY D | director | Award / grant | 2,927 | 2,927 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.