AGCOAGCO CorporationIndustrials · Agricultural - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $119.89 · now $119.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AGCO has typically landed between $103.52 and $137.54 — a range of −13.7% to +14.7% from the issuance price $119.89.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($119.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AGCO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $119.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$103.52worst · -13.7%$137.54best · +14.7%
  • now $119.89 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $119.99 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $113.63–$126.34
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $103.52–$137.54
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-25−49.5%−49.5%+0.0%
2008-09-23−49.5%−49.5%+0.0%
2008-09-26−49.3%−49.3%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+51.8%+0.0%+51.8%
2009-03-06+51.5%+0.0%+51.8%
2008-12-04+45.4%+0.0%+45.4%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+2.5%
n=20
Feb
60%
+1.7%
n=20
Mar
55%
+0.3%
n=20
Apr
65%
+2.2%
n=20
May
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Jun
55%
−0.0%
n=20
Jul
60%
+3.4%
n=20
Aug
45%
−0.9%
n=20
Sep
55%
−0.8%
n=20
Oct
55%
+2.3%
n=20
Nov
80%
+3.7%
n=20
Dec
55%
+1.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$140$982026-09-15: 1 insider sale, $200K — Harris Ivory Marie2026-09-04: 2 insider sales, $471K — Hansotia Eric P, Bennett Kelvin Eugene2026-08-14: 1 insider purchase, $101K — De Lange Bob2026-08-06: 1 insider sale, $205K — Bennett Kelvin Eugene2026-08-05: 2 insider sales, $56.8M — Tractors & Farm Equipment Ltd …2026-05-05: 2 insider sales, $52.1M — Tractors & Farm Equipment Ltd …2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $315K — Bennett Kelvin Eugene2025-11-10: 1 insider sale, $26K — Bennett Kelvin Eugene2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $301K — Harris Ivory Marie2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $2.0M2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $26K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $315K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $52.1M2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $101K2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $57.0M2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $671K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Harris Ivory Marie — Sale on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Hansotia Eric P — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Bennett Kelvin Eugene — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradedirector De Lange Bob — Purchase on 2026-08-14, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Bennett Kelvin Eugene — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Tractors & Farm Equipment Ltd — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Tractors & Farm Equipment Ltd — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Tractors & Farm Equipment Ltd — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Tractors & Farm Equipment Ltd — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bennett Kelvin Eugene — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bennett Kelvin Eugene — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Harris Ivory Marie — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Harris Ivory MarieofficerSale1,600 @ $125.30$200K−10.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open14,454Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-04Hansotia Eric PdirectorSale2,604 @ $129.75$338K−0.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open326,939Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-04Bennett Kelvin EugeneofficerSale1,000 @ $132.89$133K−6.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open14,047Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-14De Lange BobdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $100.71$101K+5.6% of holding+24.6%not yet — horizon still open18,717Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-06Bennett Kelvin EugeneofficerSale2,000 @ $102.27$205K−11.7% of holding+31.0%not yet — horizon still open15,047Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05Tractors & Farm Equipment LtdtenPercentOwnerSale360,163 @ $115.33$41.5M−4.2% of holding+20.7%not yet — horizon still open8,217,579Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05Tractors & Farm Equipment LtdtenPercentOwnerSale132,255 @ $115.33$15.3M−4.2% of holding+20.7%not yet — horizon still open3,017,565Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-05Tractors & Farm Equipment LtdtenPercentOwnerSale309,089 @ $123.28$38.1M−3.5% of holding+0.3%not yet — horizon still open8,577,742Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-05Tractors & Farm Equipment LtdtenPercentOwnerSale113,501 @ $123.28$14.0M−3.5% of holding+0.3%not yet — horizon still open3,149,820Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-17Bennett Kelvin EugeneofficerSale2,300 @ $137.04$315K−12.0% of holding−15.6%−41.7%16,844Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-10Bennett Kelvin EugeneofficerSale250 @ $104.28$26K−1.4% of holding+2.1%+1.2%17,130Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-15Harris Ivory MarieofficerSale2,669 @ $112.59$301K−16.6% of holding−3.6%+17.3%13,420Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-11Felli Luis Fernando SartiniofficerSale10,000 @ $109.40$1.1M−38.2% of holding−5.3%+13.8%16,189Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-08Felli Luis Fernando SartiniofficerSale5,000 @ $111.50$558K−16.0% of holding−3.6%+13.0%26,189Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-13Bennett Kelvin EugeneofficerSale250 @ $106.18$27K−1.4% of holding−7.4%−15.3%17,380Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-09Harris Ivory MarieofficerSale615 @ $99.61$61K−3.7% of holding−3.2%−12.7%16,089Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-06De Lange BobdirectorPurchase2,642 @ $94.77$250K+19.8% of holding+1.0%−10.0%16,003Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

167 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Barbour Sondra LdirectorAward / grant3212,986Form 4
2026-09-15De Lange BobdirectorAward / grant418,722Form 4
2026-09-04Hansotia Eric PdirectorWithheld for tax7,146329,543Form 4
2026-09-04Hansotia Eric PdirectorOption exercise9,750336,689Form 4
2026-09-04Hansotia Eric PdirectorOption exercise9,7500Form 4
2026-07-14Hansotia Eric PdirectorAward / grant236326,583Form 4
2026-07-14Bennett Kelvin EugeneofficerAward / grant20317,047Form 4
2026-07-14Audia Damon JdirectorAward / grant14650,476Form 4
2026-07-14Harris Ivory MarieofficerAward / grant4716,054Form 4
2026-07-14Sorbe Brian JamesofficerAward / grant222,860Form 4
2026-07-10Agarwal IndiradirectorWithheld for tax1,73411,825Form 4
2026-06-15Barbour Sondra LdirectorAward / grant3312,954Form 4
2026-06-15De Lange BobdirectorAward / grant417,717Form 4
2026-04-23Golodryga ZhannadirectorAward / grant1,6733,830Form 4
2026-04-23Collins James C. Jr.directorAward / grant1,6731,673Form 4
2026-04-23Barbour Sondra LdirectorAward / grant1,67312,921Form 4
2026-04-23CLARK SUZANNE PATRICIAdirectorAward / grant1,67314,314Form 4
2026-04-23Sagehorn David M.directorAward / grant1,6738,039Form 4
2026-04-23Porksen NielsdirectorAward / grant1,3386,372Form 4
2026-04-23De Lange BobdirectorAward / grant1,67317,713Form 4
2026-04-23arnold michael cdirectorAward / grant1,67324,295Form 4
2026-04-20Hansotia Eric PdirectorWithheld for tax1,960326,346Form 4
2026-03-16Barbour Sondra LdirectorAward / grant2711,248Form 4
2026-03-16De Lange BobdirectorAward / grant016,040Form 4
2026-02-17Dehner Torsten Rudolf WilliofficerWithheld for tax3,43646,982Form 4
2026-02-17Dehner Torsten Rudolf WilliofficerOption exercise5,10050,418Form 4
2026-02-17Dehner Torsten Rudolf WilliofficerOption exercise5,1000Form 4
2026-02-10Felli Luis Fernando SartiniofficerWithheld for tax1,71321,022Form 4
2026-02-10Felli Luis Fernando SartiniofficerOption exercise2,55022,735Form 4
2026-02-10Felli Luis Fernando SartiniofficerOption exercise2,5500Form 4
2026-02-05Hansotia Eric PdirectorWithheld for tax3,710328,306Form 4
2026-02-05Audia Damon JdirectorWithheld for tax55150,330Form 4
2026-02-05Millwood TimothyofficerWithheld for tax31813,842Form 4
2026-02-05Dehner Torsten Rudolf WilliofficerWithheld for tax30045,318Form 4
2026-02-05Felli Luis Fernando SartiniofficerWithheld for tax27120,185Form 4
2026-02-05Harris Ivory MarieofficerWithheld for tax25716,007Form 4
2026-02-05Bennett Kelvin EugeneofficerWithheld for tax25619,144Form 4
2026-02-05Caspari StefanofficerWithheld for tax20131,544Form 4
2026-02-05Audia Damon JdirectorAward / grant1,22750,881Form 4
2026-02-05Harris Ivory MarieofficerAward / grant57616,264Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.