Issued 2026-09-16 at $116.81 · now $116.81 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AFL has typically landed between $107.81 and $127.66 — a range of −7.7% to +9.3% from the issuance price $116.81.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($116.81) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AFL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $116.81 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $116.81 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $118.98 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $115.14–$122.82
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $107.81–$127.66
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-12-23 | −55.3% | −55.3% | +5.4% |
| 2009-01-05 | −53.9% | −57.0% | +0.0% |
| 2009-01-16 | −53.8% | −55.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-11 | +83.0% | +0.0% | +83.0% |
| 2009-04-08 | +80.1% | +0.0% | +80.1% |
| 2009-03-09 | +75.4% | +0.0% | +88.6% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$63.9B
market cap
$8.76
EPS (TTM)
14.3
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-06
next earnings
Revenue$17.4B
'20'25
Net income$3.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr20.9%
'20'25
ROE · by yr12.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.29
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$159.69
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$143.51
- Analyst target · range $99.00–$130.00$118.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$116.81
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
67%
−1.4%
n=18
Feb
63%
−0.9%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.0%
n=19
Apr
63%
+4.2%
n=19
May
47%
−0.0%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.2%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.0%
n=19
Aug
63%
+0.9%
n=19
Sep
63%
+0.7%
n=19
Oct
61%
+1.4%
n=18
Nov
89%
+5.7%
n=18
Dec
50%
−0.2%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 9,545 @ $116.62 | $1.1M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,588,645 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,055 @ $117.02 | $475K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,584,590 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,173 @ $115.12 | $1.5M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,599,017 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 827 @ $115.41 | $95K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,598,190 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 11,765 @ $114.21 | $1.3M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,613,725 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,535 @ $115.16 | $177K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,612,190 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,600 @ $114.82 | $1.6M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,625,490 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 11,500 @ $115.32 | $1.3M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,641,190 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,100 @ $116.11 | $244K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,639,090 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 14,850 @ $117.46 | $1.7M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,652,840 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 150 @ $118.17 | $18K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,652,690 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20,000 @ $118.49 | $2.4M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,667,690 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,500 @ $117.19 | $1.6M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,687,690 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,670 @ $115.65 | $1.0M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,705,320 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,130 @ $116.01 | $479K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,701,190 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 12,700 @ $116.00 | $1.5M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,713,990 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,000 @ $116.52 | $1.5M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,726,690 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 12,260 @ $116.65 | $1.4M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,740,130 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 440 @ $117.25 | $52K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,739,690 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,200 @ $117.35 | $1.5M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,752,390 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 12,066 @ $116.44 | $1.4M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,766,224 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 634 @ $117.37 | $74K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,765,590 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,765 @ $117.90 | $915K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,784,025 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,735 @ $118.18 | $678K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,778,290 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 12,820 @ $116.28 | $1.5M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,791,870 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 80 @ $117.07 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,791,790 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 9,621 @ $116.45 | $1.1M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,808,169 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,479 @ $117.03 | $407K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,804,690 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 9,353 @ $116.62 | $1.1M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,821,137 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,529 @ $117.29 | $179K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,819,608 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 980 @ $118.59 | $116K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,818,628 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 798 @ $119.60 | $95K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,817,830 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 40 @ $120.14 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,817,790 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,610 @ $121.91 | $1.7M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,831,080 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 590 @ $122.65 | $72K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,830,490 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 12,690 @ $121.26 | $1.5M | −0.0% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,845,900 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,210 @ $122.11 | $148K | −0.0% of holding | −0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,844,690 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,980 @ $121.43 | $1.7M | −0.0% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,858,710 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 120 @ $121.86 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | −0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,858,590 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,000 @ $121.09 | $1.6M | −0.0% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,872,690 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 12,240 @ $120.76 | $1.5M | −0.0% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,886,250 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 560 @ $121.29 | $68K | −0.0% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,885,690 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | MOSKOWITZ JOSEPH L | director | Sale | 600 @ $124.10 | $74K | −1.8% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,710 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 23,416 @ $116.57 | $2.7M | −0.0% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,902,919 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | MOSKOWITZ JOSEPH L | director | Sale | 7,770 @ $116.54 | $906K | −18.9% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,310 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | MOSKOWITZ JOSEPH L | director | Sale | 4,600 @ $116.54 | $536K | −10.1% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,080 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 4,429 @ $117.46 | $520K | −0.0% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,898,490 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,700 @ $117.11 | $316K | −0.0% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,926,335 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 600 @ $116.06 | $70K | −0.0% of holding | +6.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,929,035 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25,382 @ $116.59 | $3.0M | −0.0% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,930,553 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 918 @ $117.34 | $108K | −0.0% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,929,635 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 21,716 @ $117.24 | $2.5M | −0.0% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,964,219 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,284 @ $117.79 | $976K | −0.0% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,955,935 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 28,102 @ $117.15 | $3.3M | −0.1% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,986,633 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 698 @ $117.87 | $82K | −0.0% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 50,985,935 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 46,646 @ $117.84 | $5.5M | −0.1% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,015,720 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,369 @ $116.76 | $627K | −0.0% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,062,366 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 985 @ $118.31 | $117K | −0.0% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,014,735 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 26,232 @ $117.69 | $3.1M | −0.1% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,067,735 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Japan Post Holdings Co., Ltd. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 22,268 @ $116.62 | $2.6M | −0.0% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,093,967 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
102 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | MOSKOWITZ JOSEPH L | director | Option exercise | 20,303 | 45,680 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-22 | MOSKOWITZ JOSEPH L | director | Option exercise | 20,303 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | BEAVER STEVEN KENT | officer | Option exercise | 5,508 | 46,045 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | BEAVER STEVEN KENT | officer | Option exercise | 5,508 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Hosoda Miwako | director | Withheld for tax | 523 | 7,986 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Mori Nobuchika | director | Withheld for tax | 523 | 14,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | MOSKOWITZ JOSEPH L | director | Award / grant | 1,721 | 25,968 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | BOWERS WILLIAM P | director | Award / grant | 3,795 | 75,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Hosoda Miwako | director | Award / grant | 1,721 | 8,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Rohrer Katherine | director | Gift | 550 | 22,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Mori Nobuchika | director | Award / grant | 1,721 | 15,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Collins Arthur Reginald | director | Award / grant | 1,721 | 8,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Kiser Georgette D. | director | Award / grant | 1,721 | 21,022 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Rohrer Katherine | director | Award / grant | 1,721 | 23,284 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Forrester Michael A | director | Award / grant | 1,721 | 6,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Lloyd Karole | director | Award / grant | 1,721 | 50,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-20 | AMOS DANIEL P | director | Gift | 42,625 | 685,848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-18 | TILLMAN AUDREY B | director | Gift | 304 | 257,619 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Broden Max | director | Withheld for tax | 12 | 383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | TILLMAN AUDREY B | director | Gift | 9 | 257,923 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-12 | TILLMAN AUDREY B | director | Gift | 1,028 | 257,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Broden Max | director | Withheld for tax | 10 | 395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | AMOS DANIEL P | director | Withheld for tax | 115,985 | 728,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Broden Max | director | Withheld for tax | 21,854 | 147,376 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | TILLMAN AUDREY B | director | Withheld for tax | 21,439 | 258,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Dyslin Bradley Eugene | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,446 | 44,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Miller Virgil Raynard | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,274 | 40,525 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | BEAVER STEVEN KENT | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,646 | 45,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | BEAVER STEVEN KENT | officer | Award / grant | 2,158 | 47,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | AMOS DANIEL P | director | Award / grant | 263,378 | 844,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Broden Max | director | Award / grant | 65 | 405 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Broden Max | director | Award / grant | 49,458 | 169,230 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | LAKE CHARLES D II | director | Award / grant | 27,865 | 77,827 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | TILLMAN AUDREY B | director | Award / grant | 50,749 | 280,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Miller Virgil Raynard | officer | Award / grant | 23,620 | 49,799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | BEAVER STEVEN KENT | officer | Award / grant | 11,032 | 49,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Dyslin Bradley Eugene | officer | Award / grant | 28,857 | 58,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Koide Masatoshi | officer | Award / grant | 30,861 | 101,853 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Broden Max | director | Withheld for tax | 2,290 | 119,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Blackmon Robin Littrell | officer | Withheld for tax | 290 | 6,807 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-11-06 | 2025-10-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-04 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-08-07 | 2025-07-25 | $1–15K |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | sale | 2025-08-04 | 2025-07-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-07-09 | 2025-06-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-06-10 | 2025-05-28 | $1–15K |
| Carol Devine Miller | House | purchase | 2025-04-11 | 2025-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-03-06 | 2025-02-19 | $1–15K |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | sale | 2025-02-13 | 2025-01-17 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.