AFG · TickerCove

AFGAmerican Financial Group, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualtyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $142.98 · now $142.98 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AFG has typically landed between $132.35 and $155.76 — a range of −7.4% to +8.9% from the issuance price $142.98.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($142.98) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$142.98 · 84% of range

$122.57 low$146.73 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.8%

typical move · IQR 6.8%

−7.4%worst (p90)+8.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AFG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $142.98 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $142.98 (+0.0%)
typical $144.09 (+0.8%)
middle 50% $139.23–$148.95
90% range $132.35–$155.76

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−58.1%	−58.1%	+0.1%
2020-02-21	−55.8%	−57.4%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−54.5%	−58.2%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18	+52.8%	+0.0%	+71.4%
2008-11-20	+38.5%	+0.0%	+45.6%
2009-03-06	+35.9%	−0.6%	+35.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−0.8%

n=20

Feb

60%

+1.2%

n=20

Mar

65%

+0.9%

n=20

Apr

70%

+2.0%

n=20

May

50%

+1.4%

n=20

Jun

65%

+0.5%

n=20

Jul

60%

+1.4%

n=20

Aug

55%

+1.4%

n=20

Sep

55%

+0.4%

n=20

Oct

60%

+1.5%

n=20

Nov

80%

+3.9%

n=20

Dec

65%

+1.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	VON LEHMAN JOHN I	director	Sale	1,279 @ $143.84	$184K	−9.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	12,483	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-02	Hertzman Brian S.	officer	Sale	950 @ $142.87	$136K	−7.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	11,123	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-26	LINDNER CARL H III	director	Sale	81,373 @ $144.28	$11.7M	−2.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,060,068	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-24	LINDNER CARL H III	director	Sale	8,627 @ $144.66	$1.2M	−0.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,141,441	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-06	Weiss Mark A	officer	Sale	2,813 @ $144.76	$407K	−29.7% of holding	−2.9%	not yet — horizon still open	6,648	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-24	Gillis Michelle A	officer	Sale	2,247 @ $139.00	$312K	−14.6% of holding	+3.9%	not yet — horizon still open	13,135	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-23	Thompson David Lawrence Jr	director	Sale	11,370 @ $135.05	$1.5M	−1.9% of holding	+3.0%	not yet — horizon still open	584,098	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27	Hertzman Brian S.	officer	Sale	1,663 @ $133.70	$222K	−12.1% of holding	+3.2%	−3.3%	12,073	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Hertzman Brian S.	officer	Sale	1,777 @ $142.51	$253K	−13.6% of holding	−7.6%	−13.6%	11,300	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-03	Murray Amy Y	director	Sale	920 @ $136.63	$126K	−25.8% of holding	+2.8%	−6.9%	2,651	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-21	Lindner Stephen Craig Jr	director	Sale	10,000 @ $134.31	$1.3M	−3.0% of holding	+1.7%	−6.7%	326,730	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-18	VON LEHMAN JOHN I	director	Sale	2,542 @ $125.67	$319K	−18.7% of holding	+8.2%	−6.0%	11,080	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-20	JOSEPH GREGORY G	director	Purchase	3,000 @ $121.00	$363K	+5.5% of holding	+12.2%	+8.6%	57,477	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

69 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-01	Newport Roger K	director	Award / grant	1,299	4,961	Form 4
2026-06-01	Martin Mary Beth	director	Award / grant	1,299	11,493	Form 4
2026-06-01	Nwankwo Evans N	director	Award / grant	1,299	7,646	Form 4
2026-06-01	JOSEPH GREGORY G	director	Award / grant	1,299	48,592	Form 4
2026-06-01	VERITY WILLIAM W	director	Award / grant	1,299	14,418	Form 4
2026-06-01	VON LEHMAN JOHN I	director	Award / grant	1,299	13,762	Form 4
2026-06-01	Murray Amy Y	director	Award / grant	1,299	3,950	Form 4
2026-02-26	Weiss Mark A	officer	Award / grant	3,012	11,727	Form 4
2026-02-26	LINDNER CARL H III	director	Award / grant	11,294	3,150,068	Form 4
2026-02-26	Gillis Michelle A	officer	Award / grant	3,012	15,382	Form 4
2026-02-26	Hertzman Brian S.	officer	Award / grant	3,163	13,736	Form 4
2026-02-26	BERDING JOHN B	director	Award / grant	8,847	77,616	Form 4
2026-02-26	Thompson David Lawrence Jr	director	Award / grant	4,706	594,948	Form 4
2026-02-26	Lindner Stephen Craig Jr	director	Award / grant	3,389	329,163	Form 4
2026-02-26	LINDNER S CRAIG	director	Award / grant	11,294	2,868,715	Form 4
2026-02-23	LINDNER CARL H III	director	Withheld for tax	3,810	3,138,774	Form 4
2026-02-23	LINDNER S CRAIG	director	Withheld for tax	3,300	2,857,421	Form 4
2026-02-23	BERDING JOHN B	director	Withheld for tax	2,050	68,769	Form 4
2026-02-23	Thompson David Lawrence Jr	director	Withheld for tax	1,098	590,242	Form 4
2026-02-23	Lindner Stephen Craig Jr	director	Withheld for tax	761	325,774	Form 4
2026-02-23	Gillis Michelle A	officer	Withheld for tax	730	12,370	Form 4
2026-02-23	Weiss Mark A	officer	Withheld for tax	658	8,715	Form 4
2026-02-22	Hertzman Brian S.	officer	Withheld for tax	727	10,573	Form 4
2026-01-28	Lindner Stephen Craig Jr	director	Gift	147	10,327	Form 4
2026-01-28	Lindner Stephen Craig Jr	director	Gift	276	326,535	Form 4
2026-01-28	Lindner Stephen Craig Jr	director	Gift	441	53,620	Form 4
2025-12-29	Gillis Michelle A	officer	Gift	542	11,454	Form 4
2025-12-18	Lindner Stephen Craig Jr	director	Gift	44	326,388	Form 4
2025-12-18	Thompson David Lawrence Jr	director	Gift	828	591,340	Form 4
2025-12-16	LINDNER CARL H III	director	Gift	403	3,142,584	Form 4
2025-12-15	Lindner Stephen Craig Jr	director	Gift	276	10,180	Form 4
2025-12-15	Lindner Stephen Craig Jr	director	Gift	276	326,432	Form 4
2025-12-15	Lindner Stephen Craig Jr	director	Gift	828	53,179	Form 4
2025-12-15	LINDNER S CRAIG	director	Gift	3,342	2,860,721	Form 4
2025-12-09	LINDNER CARL H III	director	Gift	37,424	3,142,987	Form 4
2025-12-03	Lindner Stephen Craig Jr	director	Gift	574	52,351	Form 4
2025-12-03	Lindner Stephen Craig Jr	director	Gift	574	326,156	Form 4
2025-09-02	Weiss Mark A	officer	Gift	467	8,700	Form 4
2025-08-04	LINDNER CARL H III	director	Gift	108,743	3,180,411	Form 4
2025-08-04	LINDNER S CRAIG	director	Gift	108,743	2,864,063	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i