Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.47 · now $3.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AFCG has typically landed between $2.83 and $4.08 — a range of −18.4% to +17.6% from the issuance price $3.47.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,359 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-03-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AFCG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.47 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.43 (-1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.21–$3.65
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.83–$4.08
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-10 | −43.3% | −43.3% | +1.5% |
| 2025-03-12 | −41.1% | −44.1% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-07 | −38.7% | −38.7% | +0.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-30 | +34.3% | +0.0% | +34.3% |
| 2026-07-24 | +34.2% | +0.0% | +39.3% |
| 2026-07-31 | +33.8% | +0.0% | +33.8% |
1,359 overlapping windows · 2021-03-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 25,198 @ $3.50 | $88K | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,924,497 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $3.55 | $53K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,899,299 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 35,000 @ $3.46 | $121K | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,884,299 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 15,223 @ $3.59 | $55K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,849,299 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 53,273 @ $3.60 | $192K | +0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,834,076 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 65,752 @ $3.53 | $232K | +1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,780,803 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 15,202 @ $3.46 | $53K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,715,051 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 19,404 @ $3.41 | $66K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,699,849 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $3.40 | $102K | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,680,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $3.41 | $102K | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,650,445 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $3.28 | $82K | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,620,445 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $3.29 | $66K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,595,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 12,841 @ $3.48 | $45K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,575,445 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-14 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 45,829 @ $3.06 | $140K | +0.7% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,562,604 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Hetzel Brandon | officer | Purchase | 1,463 @ $3.00 | $4K | +3.6% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Tannenbaum Robyn | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $3.15 | $3K | +0.4% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 226,907 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 29,040 @ $2.76 | $80K | +0.5% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,426,175 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-31 | Tannenbaum Robyn | officer | Purchase | 7,000 @ $2.80 | $20K | +3.2% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 225,907 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-27 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 4,300 @ $2.60 | $11K | +0.1% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,397,135 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-26 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 19,729 @ $2.60 | $51K | +0.3% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,392,835 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-24 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 44,914 @ $2.59 | $116K | +0.7% of holding | +7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,373,106 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-23 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 14,366 @ $2.59 | $37K | +0.2% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,328,192 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 115,237 @ $2.55 | $294K | +1.9% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,313,826 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 60,600 @ $2.59 | $157K | +1.0% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,198,589 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 90,600 @ $2.59 | $235K | +1.5% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,137,989 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 34,288 @ $2.59 | $89K | +0.6% of holding | +2.3% | +26.4% | 6,047,389 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-13 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 15,018 @ $2.60 | $39K | +0.3% of holding | −7.1% | +22.3% | 6,013,101 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 2,502 @ $2.59 | $6K | +0.0% of holding | −5.3% | +24.4% | 5,998,083 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $2.57 | $5K | +0.0% of holding | +1.3% | +24.9% | 5,995,581 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 102,213 @ $2.54 | $260K | +1.7% of holding | +15.4% | +28.0% | 5,993,581 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 1,270 @ $2.47 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | +13.2% | +26.0% | 5,891,368 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 29,000 @ $2.44 | $71K | +0.5% of holding | +17.1% | +31.9% | 5,890,098 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $3.05 | $76K | +0.4% of holding | −14.6% | +1.8% | 5,861,098 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $3.03 | $61K | +0.3% of holding | −8.1% | +4.6% | 5,836,098 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-09 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 24,000 @ $2.83 | $68K | +0.4% of holding | −7.4% | +6.4% | 5,816,098 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 46,000 @ $2.94 | $135K | +0.8% of holding | +1.6% | +11.8% | 5,792,098 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 39,000 @ $2.87 | $112K | +0.7% of holding | −1.6% | +17.8% | 5,746,098 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $2.88 | $43K | +0.3% of holding | +1.3% | +16.3% | 5,707,098 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Neville Daniel | officer | Purchase | 17,000 @ $2.81 | $48K | +8.1% of holding | +3.0% | +12.9% | 226,649 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-08 | Neville Daniel | officer | Purchase | 12,388 @ $4.44 | $55K | +6.3% of holding | −18.5% | −44.8% | 209,649 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-05 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 79,665 @ $4.56 | $363K | +1.6% of holding | −19.3% | −47.3% | 4,962,171 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 36,861 @ $4.57 | $168K | +0.8% of holding | −17.6% | −49.2% | 4,882,506 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-02 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 36,096 @ $4.49 | $162K | +0.8% of holding | −15.5% | −51.9% | 4,845,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 144,399 @ $4.57 | $660K | +3.1% of holding | −15.9% | −55.7% | 4,809,549 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 330,127 @ $4.81 | $1.6M | +7.6% of holding | −20.1% | −59.8% | 4,665,150 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 97,168 @ $4.17 | $405K | +2.3% of holding | −5.1% | −49.1% | 4,335,023 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-25 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 61,862 @ $4.08 | $252K | +1.5% of holding | −2.1% | −47.5% | 4,237,855 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Neville Daniel | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $4.04 | $40K | +5.3% of holding | −2.1% | −47.5% | 197,261 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Tannenbaum Robyn | officer | Purchase | 4,000 @ $4.13 | $17K | +3.2% of holding | −2.1% | −47.5% | 127,667 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 216,117 @ $4.03 | $871K | +5.5% of holding | −3.8% | −48.4% | 4,175,993 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Tannenbaum Robyn | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $4.10 | $8K | +1.6% of holding | −3.8% | −48.4% | 123,667 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-28 | Neville Daniel | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $6.15 | $31K | +2.7% of holding | −8.8% | −47.7% | 187,261 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | Neville Daniel | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $6.20 | $31K | +2.8% of holding | −8.7% | −45.7% | 182,261 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $6.20 | $310K | +1.3% of holding | −10.6% | −39.6% | 3,959,876 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-17 | Neville Daniel | officer | Purchase | 16,250 @ $6.32 | $103K | +10.1% of holding | −10.6% | −39.6% | 177,261 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-17 | Tannenbaum Robyn | officer | Purchase | 4,000 @ $6.17 | $25K | +3.4% of holding | −10.6% | −39.6% | 121,667 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-14 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Purchase | 32,007 @ $6.52 | $209K | +0.8% of holding | −17.6% | −42.8% | 3,909,876 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Neville Daniel | officer | Purchase | 30,349 @ $6.52 | $198K | +23.2% of holding | −17.6% | −42.8% | 161,011 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Tannenbaum Robyn | officer | Purchase | 4,000 @ $6.25 | $25K | +3.5% of holding | −17.6% | −42.8% | 117,667 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
16 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-20 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Award / grant | 729,927 | 5,692,098 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Tannenbaum Robyn | officer | Award / grant | 91,240 | 218,907 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Neville Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 91,240 | 317,889 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | SUDNOW MARNIE MIGATZ | director | Award / grant | 5,474 | 9,511 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | HARRISON THOMAS L | director | Award / grant | 5,474 | 24,539 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Levy Robert L | director | Award / grant | 5,474 | 9,511 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | FRANK ALEXANDER C | director | Award / grant | 5,474 | 16,196 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | TANNENBAUM LEONARD M | director | Award / grant | 95,579 | 3,877,869 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | Tannenbaum Robyn | officer | Award / grant | 47,789 | 113,667 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | Neville Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 47,789 | 130,662 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | Hetzel Brandon | officer | Award / grant | 17,921 | 40,537 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | Levy Robert L | director | Award / grant | 1,792 | 4,037 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | HARRISON THOMAS L | director | Award / grant | 1,792 | 19,065 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | FRANK ALEXANDER C | director | Award / grant | 1,792 | 10,722 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-25 | SUDNOW MARNIE MIGATZ | director | Award / grant | 1,792 | 4,037 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-20 | Neville Daniel | officer | Award / grant | 82,873 | 82,873 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.