Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.40 · now $14.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AEVA has typically landed between $9.29 and $22.73 — a range of −35.5% to +57.8% from the issuance price $14.40.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,626 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-02-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AEVA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $14.4 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.9 (-3.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.31–$16.49
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.29–$22.73
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,626 windows spanning 2020-02-27 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-07-09 | −59.8% | −59.8% | +4.2% |
| 2025-07-18 | −58.7% | −61.5% | +0.0% |
| 2025-07-17 | −57.3% | −59.5% | +5.1% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-03-13 | +183.0% | +0.0% | +190.0% |
| 2025-03-11 | +180.4% | −0.4% | +181.2% |
| 2025-03-17 | +178.6% | −4.3% | +178.6% |
1,626 overlapping windows · 2020-02-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−1.2%
n=6
Feb
50%
−2.2%
n=6
Mar
29%
+3.0%
n=7
Apr
43%
−7.2%
n=7
May
71%
+36.8%
n=7
Jun
71%
+13.8%
n=7
Jul
43%
−7.1%
n=7
Aug
14%
−9.5%
n=7
Sep
14%
−12.4%
n=7
Oct
50%
−1.1%
n=6
Nov
67%
+4.9%
n=6
Dec
67%
+7.8%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 34,146 @ $14.83 | $506K | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 547,226 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 70,000 @ $21.21 | $1.5M | −10.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 581,372 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | MOTLAGH KATHERINE | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $25.50 | $64K | −20.6% of holding | −37.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,618 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 16,217 @ $24.12 | $391K | −1.3% of holding | −36.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,235,105 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 14,297 @ $24.54 | $351K | −1.2% of holding | −36.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,220,808 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 149,961 @ $23.87 | $3.6M | −10.2% of holding | −32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,320,847 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 64,030 @ $24.28 | $1.6M | −4.8% of holding | −32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,256,817 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Rezk Mina | director | Sale | 54,860 @ $23.81 | $1.3M | −3.2% of holding | −32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,651,809 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Rezk Mina | director | Sale | 42,940 @ $24.19 | $1.0M | −2.6% of holding | −32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,608,869 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 38,622 @ $23.86 | $922K | −2.4% of holding | −32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,546,210 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 15,377 @ $24.27 | $373K | −1.0% of holding | −32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,530,833 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 5,495 @ $25.56 | $140K | −0.4% of holding | −32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,251,322 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Rezk Mina | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $25.55 | $56K | −0.1% of holding | −32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,606,669 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $25.69 | $28K | −0.1% of holding | −32.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,529,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Rezk Mina | director | Sale | 10,304 @ $15.40 | $159K | −0.7% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,527,223 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 10,304 @ $15.40 | $159K | −0.6% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,584,832 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 6,830 @ $15.40 | $105K | −1.0% of holding | +0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 651,372 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 64,821 @ $21.16 | $1.4M | −3.9% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,595,136 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Rezk Mina | director | Sale | 64,821 @ $21.16 | $1.4M | −4.0% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,537,527 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 20,620 @ $21.16 | $436K | −3.0% of holding | +14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 658,202 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 11,212 @ $26.75 | $300K | −1.6% of holding | −25.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 678,822 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-22 | Zadesky Stephen Paul | director | Sale | 1,184 @ $25.46 | $30K | −1.3% of holding | −34.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,498 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Zadesky Stephen Paul | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $24.88 | $30K | −1.3% of holding | −34.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,682 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Zadesky Stephen Paul | director | Sale | 600 @ $26.36 | $16K | −0.6% of holding | −34.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,898 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Rezk Mina | director | Sale | 271,496 @ $24.37 | $6.6M | −13.2% of holding | −29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,785,173 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 176,225 @ $24.34 | $4.3M | −9.3% of holding | −29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,709,081 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Rezk Mina | director | Sale | 77,104 @ $25.24 | $1.9M | −4.3% of holding | −29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,708,069 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 45,113 @ $25.24 | $1.1M | −2.6% of holding | −29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,663,968 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 39,101 @ $24.34 | $952K | −2.6% of holding | −29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,481,707 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 10,010 @ $25.24 | $253K | −0.7% of holding | −29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,471,697 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 3,110 @ $27.09 | $84K | −0.2% of holding | −29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,659,957 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Rezk Mina | director | Sale | 1,400 @ $26.11 | $37K | −0.1% of holding | −29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,706,669 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 901 @ $26.09 | $24K | −0.1% of holding | −29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,663,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 690 @ $27.09 | $19K | −0.0% of holding | −29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,470,808 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 199 @ $26.09 | $5K | −0.0% of holding | −29.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,471,498 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 41,083 @ $15.04 | $618K | −2.3% of holding | +55.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,725,329 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Rezk Mina | director | Sale | 27,389 @ $15.04 | $412K | −1.9% of holding | +55.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,442,371 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 5,643 @ $15.04 | $85K | −0.9% of holding | +55.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 590,034 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 32,079 @ $13.94 | $447K | −5.1% of holding | −2.1% | −6.8% | 595,677 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 31,600 @ $20.98 | $663K | −4.8% of holding | −33.6% | −27.5% | 629,456 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-15 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 26,700 @ $20.16 | $538K | −3.9% of holding | −33.6% | −27.5% | 661,056 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-15 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 1,700 @ $22.07 | $38K | −0.3% of holding | −33.6% | −27.5% | 627,756 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-09 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 64,787 @ $18.85 | $1.2M | −3.5% of holding | −34.6% | −9.1% | 1,766,412 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Rezk Mina | director | Sale | 64,787 @ $18.85 | $1.2M | −4.2% of holding | −34.6% | −9.1% | 1,469,760 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 20,609 @ $18.85 | $389K | −2.9% of holding | −34.6% | −9.1% | 687,756 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 378,074 @ $12.96 | $4.9M | −17.1% of holding | +1.7% | +59.1% | 1,831,199 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Rezk Mina | director | Sale | 252,049 @ $12.96 | $3.3M | −14.1% of holding | +1.7% | +59.1% | 1,534,547 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 110,086 @ $12.96 | $1.4M | −4.7% of holding | +1.7% | +59.1% | 2,209,273 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Rezk Mina | director | Sale | 69,674 @ $12.96 | $903K | −3.8% of holding | +1.7% | +59.1% | 1,786,596 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 12,147 @ $12.96 | $157K | −1.7% of holding | +1.7% | +59.1% | 708,365 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 48,086 @ $9.97 | $479K | −6.3% of holding | +41.8% | +143.4% | 720,512 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Rezk Mina | director | Sale | 249,400 @ $13.45 | $3.4M | −7.8% of holding | +12.6% | +39.4% | 2,957,269 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 249,300 @ $13.45 | $3.4M | −11.7% of holding | +12.6% | +39.4% | 1,885,508 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 700 @ $13.96 | $10K | −0.0% of holding | +12.6% | +39.4% | 1,884,808 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | Rezk Mina | director | Sale | 600 @ $13.97 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | +12.6% | +39.4% | 2,956,669 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-05 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Sale | 39,702 @ $13.64 | $541K | −1.9% of holding | +5.5% | −11.0% | 2,093,455 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-05 | Rezk Mina | director | Sale | 26,468 @ $13.64 | $361K | −1.5% of holding | +5.5% | −11.0% | 1,705,668 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-05 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 5,454 @ $13.64 | $74K | −0.7% of holding | +5.5% | −11.0% | 768,598 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-03 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 36,658 @ $13.80 | $506K | −4.5% of holding | +14.4% | +4.3% | 774,052 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Sale | 160,000 @ $13.33 | $2.1M | −16.5% of holding | +27.1% | −10.0% | 810,710 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
46 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Other acquisition | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Other acquisition | — | — | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Award / grant | 6,150 | 16,240,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | MOTLAGH KATHERINE | director | Award / grant | 6,150 | 12,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Simonian Hrach | director | Award / grant | 6,150 | 117,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Zadesky Stephen Paul | director | Award / grant | 6,150 | 95,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Rezk Mina | director | Award / grant | 319,954 | 319,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Rezk Mina | director | Award / grant | 159,977 | 1,602,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 690,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Award / grant | 319,954 | 319,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Award / grant | 159,977 | 1,885,306 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Gift | 200,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Rezk Mina | director | Gift | 900,000 | 2,056,669 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-13 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Gift | 164,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Gift | 164,000 | 164,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Gift | 164,000 | 1,720,808 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Rezk Mina | director | Award / grant | 150,602 | 1,856,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Award / grant | 225,904 | 2,319,359 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Rezk Mina | director | Award / grant | 156,862 | 1,732,136 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Award / grant | 235,295 | 2,133,157 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Award / grant | 235,295 | 2,133,157 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-03 | Rezk Mina | director | Award / grant | 156,862 | 1,732,136 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-16 | Rezk Mina | director | Gift | 30,000 | 3,206,669 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-06 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Gift | 425,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-05 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Gift | 425,000 | 425,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-05 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Gift | 425,000 | 2,914,808 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-05 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Gift | 580,000 | 2,334,808 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-31 | Rezk Mina | director | Gift | 1,000,000 | 3,486,669 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | Zadesky Stephen Paul | director | Award / grant | 5,968 | 89,732 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | SYLEBRA CAPITAL LLC | director | Award / grant | 5,968 | 16,234,521 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | Simonian Hrach | director | Award / grant | 5,968 | 111,291 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-20 | MOTLAGH KATHERINE | director | Award / grant | 5,968 | 5,968 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-16 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Gift | 175,000 | 3,339,808 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-04 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Withheld for tax | 27,624 | 1,967,763 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-04 | Rezk Mina | director | Withheld for tax | 18,416 | 1,645,174 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-04 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,385 | 1,003,072 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-16 | Dardashti Soroush Salehian | director | Award / grant | 1,000,000 | 1,995,387 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-16 | Rezk Mina | director | Award / grant | 1,000,000 | 1,663,590 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-16 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Award / grant | 300,000 | 1,008,457 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-12 | Sinha Saurabh | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,327 | 708,457 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.