Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.57 · now $13.57 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AESI has typically landed between $10.86 and $16.50 — a range of −20.0% to +21.6% from the issuance price $13.57.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
863 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-03-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.57) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AESI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.57 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $13.57 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $13.57 (+0.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $12.3–$14.84
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $10.86–$16.5
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-29 | −39.2% | −39.2% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-30 | −38.0% | −38.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-26 | −35.4% | −35.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-06 | +72.2% | +0.0% | +72.2% |
| 2026-04-10 | +65.7% | +0.0% | +69.0% |
| 2026-04-07 | +63.6% | +0.0% | +71.0% |
863 overlapping windows · 2023-03-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-06 | Scholla Chris | officer | Sale | 8,912 @ $11.79 | $105K | −1.5% of holding | −3.0% | −1.0% | 567,972 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | SHEPARD GREGORY M | other | Sale | 130,000 @ $11.98 | $1.6M | −1.7% of holding | +18.7% | −3.3% | 7,421,210 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | SHEPARD GREGORY M | other | Sale | 100,000 @ $11.75 | $1.2M | −1.3% of holding | +17.8% | −5.8% | 7,551,210 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Scholla Chris | officer | Sale | 52,150 @ $8.82 | $460K | −8.6% of holding | +1.2% | +102.0% | 550,907 | Form 4 · filed 41 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | BRIGHAM BEN M | director | Purchase | 9,635 @ $13.38 | $129K | +1.7% of holding | +11.2% | −49.9% | 572,397 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Rogers Douglas G | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $13.27 | $93K | +233.3% of holding | +11.2% | −49.9% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-13 | BRIGHAM BEN M | director | Purchase | 9,121 @ $13.36 | $122K | +1.6% of holding | +6.9% | −37.8% | 562,762 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-12 | BRIGHAM BEN M | director | Purchase | 20,400 @ $13.32 | $272K | +3.8% of holding | +7.6% | −33.8% | 553,641 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | SHEPARD GREGORY M | other | Purchase | 32,155 @ $19.04 | $612K | +0.4% of holding | −4.1% | −49.3% | 7,651,210 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | BRIGHAM BEN M | director | Purchase | 217,391 @ $23.00 | $5.0M | +68.8% of holding | −17.9% | −47.4% | 533,241 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Hock Stacy | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $22.50 | $225K | −1.1% of holding | −17.9% | −47.4% | 897,604 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-28 | Leveille Brian Anthony | other | Sale | 10,000 @ $25.00 | $250K | −2.8% of holding | −17.8% | −51.3% | 352,010 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-27 | Leveille Brian Anthony | other | Sale | 12,500 @ $24.46 | $306K | −3.3% of holding | −19.9% | −48.5% | 362,010 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-23 | Leveille Brian Anthony | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $24.00 | $180K | −2.0% of holding | −10.7% | −44.4% | 374,510 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-22 | Leveille Brian Anthony | other | Sale | 5,000 @ $23.88 | $119K | −1.3% of holding | −10.8% | −44.1% | 382,010 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-17 | Leveille Brian Anthony | other | Sale | 10,000 @ $25.00 | $250K | −2.5% of holding | −12.2% | −48.6% | 387,010 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-16 | Leveille Brian Anthony | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $24.00 | $180K | −1.9% of holding | −13.1% | −51.6% | 397,010 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-10 | Hock Stacy | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $21.96 | $220K | −1.1% of holding | −4.2% | −44.6% | 907,604 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Leveille Brian Anthony | other | Sale | 5,000 @ $23.00 | $115K | −1.2% of holding | −5.5% | −42.0% | 404,510 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | Hock Stacy | director | Sale | 8,571 @ $22.55 | $193K | −0.9% of holding | +6.8% | −39.2% | 917,604 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Leveille Brian Anthony | other | Sale | 5,000 @ $23.17 | $116K | −1.2% of holding | +6.4% | −34.3% | 409,510 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-09 | Leveille Brian Anthony | other | Sale | 5,000 @ $23.06 | $115K | −1.2% of holding | −0.5% | −35.1% | 414,510 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | Leveille Brian Anthony | other | Sale | 7,500 @ $24.00 | $180K | −1.8% of holding | −2.6% | −43.5% | 419,510 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-03 | Leveille Brian Anthony | other | Sale | 5,000 @ $23.87 | $119K | −1.2% of holding | −2.6% | −43.5% | 427,010 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
68 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | Ginn Kirk Edwards | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,134 | 559,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Hock Stacy | director | Gift | 90,866 | 800,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | McCarthy Benjamin Blake | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,736 | 183,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Turner John Gregory | director | Withheld for tax | 11,246 | 656,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-23 | Voelter Dathan C | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,201 | 490,945 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Rogers Douglas G | director | Other acquisition | 12,536 | 10,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Turner John Gregory | director | Withheld for tax | 16,130 | 667,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Voelter Dathan C | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,857 | 493,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | McCarthy Benjamin Blake | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,266 | 188,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-16 | Ginn Kirk Edwards | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,048 | 560,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Rogers Douglas G | director | Option exercise | 12,536 | 22,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Rogers Douglas G | director | Option exercise | 12,536 | 22,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Turner John Gregory | director | Withheld for tax | 11,178 | 684,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Voelter Dathan C | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,279 | 498,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Ginn Kirk Edwards | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,237 | 563,499 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Rogers Douglas G | director | Award / grant | 22,200 | 34,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Scholla Chris | officer | Award / grant | 25,977 | 576,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Voyles Robb L. | director | Award / grant | 25,227 | 54,394 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | BRIGHAM BEN M | director | Award / grant | 277,778 | 850,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | McCarthy Benjamin Blake | officer | Award / grant | 90,817 | 192,856 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Voelter Dathan C | officer | Award / grant | 60,545 | 477,504 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Voelter Dathan C | officer | Award / grant | 27,778 | 505,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | LANGFORD A LANCE | director | Award / grant | 24,218 | 211,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Ginn Kirk Edwards | officer | Award / grant | 40,363 | 549,708 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Ginn Kirk Edwards | officer | Award / grant | 19,028 | 568,736 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Turner John Gregory | director | Award / grant | 201,816 | 649,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Turner John Gregory | director | Award / grant | 45,833 | 695,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Howard John Michael | director | Award / grant | 22,200 | 45,153 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Mills Mark P | director | Award / grant | 22,200 | 53,209 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Burleson Gayle | director | Award / grant | 14,632 | 37,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Sealy & Smith Foundation | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 22,200 | 22,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Sealy & Smith Foundation | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 22,200 | 22,200 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | SHEPARD GREGORY M | other | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | SHEPARD GREGORY M | other | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-24 | SHEPARD GREGORY M | other | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-24 | SHEPARD GREGORY M | other | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | SHEPARD GREGORY M | other | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | SHEPARD GREGORY M | other | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | SHEPARD GREGORY M | other | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-15 | SHEPARD GREGORY M | other | Other acquisition | 1 | 1 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.