AESThe AES CorporationUtilities · Diversified Utilitiesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.81 · now $14.81 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AES has typically landed between $12.52 and $17.60 — a range of −15.5% to +18.9% from the issuance price $14.81.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.81) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AES has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.81 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$12.52worst · -15.5%$17.6best · +18.9%
  • now $14.81 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.81 (+0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.79–$15.83
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.52–$17.6
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−54.5%−54.5%+0.0%
2020-02-19−47.4%−54.3%+0.0%
2020-02-13−47.2%−47.2%+0.9%
3 best
2009-04-30+51.1%+0.0%+51.1%
2009-04-08+49.1%+0.0%+49.1%
2009-04-29+47.5%+0.0%+47.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$10.6B
market cap
$1.88
EPS (TTM)
7.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$12.2B
'20'25
Net income$949M
'20'25
Free cash flow−$1.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr7.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr13.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr4.40
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $14.81$-71.05$50.85
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-62.65
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$42.44
  • Analyst target · range $16.00–$23.00$16.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$14.81

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−1.0%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.1%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.4%
n=19
Apr
63%
+0.6%
n=19
May
47%
+1.5%
n=19
Jun
53%
+2.0%
n=19
Jul
58%
+1.5%
n=19
Aug
47%
−0.5%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.9%
n=19
Oct
56%
+0.8%
n=18
Nov
50%
+0.4%
n=18
Dec
61%
+2.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$17$12↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

129 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-04-29Naim MoisesdirectorAward / grant6,920218,738Form 4
2026-04-29ANDERSON GERARD MdirectorAward / grant6,92049,926Form 4
2026-04-29DAVIDSON JANETdirectorAward / grant2,07693,247Form 4
2026-04-29Bhandari Inderpal SdirectorAward / grant12,11159,433Form 4
2026-04-29ANDERSON GERARD MdirectorAward / grant12,11162,037Form 4
2026-04-29Laulis Julia M.directorAward / grant12,111109,189Form 4
2026-04-29MONIE ALAINdirectorAward / grant12,111131,814Form 4
2026-04-29Naim MoisesdirectorAward / grant12,111230,849Form 4
2026-04-29KOEPPEL HOLLY KdirectorAward / grant12,111195,412Form 4
2026-04-29Sebastian Teresa MosleydirectorAward / grant12,11164,612Form 4
2026-04-29DAVIDSON JANETdirectorAward / grant12,111105,358Form 4
2026-04-23Mendoza TishofficerAward / grant46,552334,972Form 4
2026-04-23Coughlin StephenofficerAward / grant50,345265,494Form 4
2026-04-23Freedman Paul LofficerAward / grant44,483223,154Form 4
2026-04-23Rubiolo Juan IgnacioofficerAward / grant48,276275,911Form 4
2026-02-24Gluski AndresdirectorWithheld for tax13,7512,078,523Form 4
2026-02-24Rubiolo Juan IgnacioofficerWithheld for tax4,036229,232Form 4
2026-02-24Coughlin StephenofficerWithheld for tax1,669215,149Form 4
2026-02-24Rubiolo Juan IgnacioofficerWithheld for tax1,597227,635Form 4
2026-02-24Da Santos BernerdofficerWithheld for tax1,532405,117Form 4
2026-02-24Mendoza TishofficerWithheld for tax1,487288,420Form 4
2026-02-24Freedman Paul LofficerWithheld for tax1,388178,671Form 4
2026-02-24Falu Ricardo ManuelofficerWithheld for tax992235,589Form 4
2026-02-24Kohan SherryofficerWithheld for tax48371,424Form 4
2026-02-20Gluski AndresdirectorWithheld for tax123,7602,125,170Form 4
2026-02-20Gluski AndresdirectorWithheld for tax32,8962,092,274Form 4
2026-02-20Coughlin StephenofficerWithheld for tax15,425228,573Form 4
2026-02-20Rubiolo Juan IgnacioofficerWithheld for tax14,805243,909Form 4
2026-02-20Da Santos BernerdofficerWithheld for tax14,188415,646Form 4
2026-02-20Mendoza TishofficerWithheld for tax13,801299,067Form 4
2026-02-20Freedman Paul LofficerWithheld for tax12,933189,163Form 4
2026-02-20Falu Ricardo ManuelofficerWithheld for tax9,356247,094Form 4
2026-02-20Coughlin StephenofficerWithheld for tax7,073216,818Form 4
2026-02-20Rubiolo Juan IgnacioofficerWithheld for tax6,403233,268Form 4
2026-02-20Falu Ricardo ManuelofficerWithheld for tax6,326236,581Form 4
2026-02-20Mendoza TishofficerWithheld for tax5,512289,907Form 4
2026-02-20Freedman Paul LofficerWithheld for tax5,478180,059Form 4
2026-02-20Da Santos BernerdofficerWithheld for tax5,414406,649Form 4
2026-02-20Kohan SherryofficerWithheld for tax4,79174,869Form 4
2026-02-20Coughlin StephenofficerWithheld for tax4,682223,891Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-03-272025-02-25$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-03-122025-02-12$1–15K
Jonathan JacksonHousesale2024-10-112024-09-19$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Jonathan JacksonHousepurchase2024-08-122024-07-09$15–50K
Thomas R. CarperSenatepurchase2024-02-022024-01-17$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatesale2023-11-072023-10-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-05-132020-04-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-11-122019-10-21$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-10-162019-09-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-08-062019-07-08$1–15K
Bill FloresHousepurchase2019-06-132019-05-08$1–15K
Bill FloresHousepurchase2019-04-042019-03-25$1–15K
Robert P Corker JrSenatesale2014-06-102014-05-20$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.