Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.78 · now $14.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AERO has typically landed between $11.59 and $18.03 — a range of −21.6% to +22.0% from the issuance price $14.78.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
194 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-11-06 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AERO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $14.78 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.52 (-1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.18–$15.86
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.59–$18.03
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-02-19 | −39.7% | −39.7% | +2.6% |
| 2026-02-20 | −36.3% | −41.3% | +0.0% |
| 2026-02-18 | −35.1% | −35.1% | +2.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-11-18 | +32.6% | +0.0% | +32.6% |
| 2026-03-20 | +28.6% | +0.0% | +33.5% |
| 2025-11-24 | +26.2% | +0.0% | +26.2% |
194 overlapping windows · 2025-11-06 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Murray Aaron James | officer | Sale | 355,600 @ $1.58 | $563K | −22.0% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,262,530 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Borrego Andres | director | Purchase | 7,700 @ $15.83 | $122K | +96.3% of holding | −9.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-27 | Moak Donald Lee | director | Purchase | 6,600 @ $15.15 | $100K | ownership Δ n/a | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Murray Aaron James | officer | Sale | 250,000 @ $1.55 | $388K | −12.7% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,718,130 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Murray Aaron James | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $1.59 | $159K | −5.8% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,618,130 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Murray Aaron James | officer | Sale | 400,000 @ $1.50 | $600K | −15.6% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,168,130 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Murray Aaron James | officer | Sale | 200,000 @ $1.52 | $304K | −9.2% of holding | +14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,968,130 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Tricio Haro Eduardo | director | Purchase | 500,000 @ $1.32 | $660K | ownership Δ n/a | +16.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 500,000 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Tricio Haro Eduardo | director | Purchase | 500,000 @ $1.32 | $660K | +3.4% of holding | +16.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,166,980 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | CONESA ANDRES | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $12.91 | $258K | ownership Δ n/a | +16.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Borrego Andres | director | Purchase | 8,000 @ $12.83 | $103K | ownership Δ n/a | +16.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Murray Aaron James | officer | Purchase | 6,336 @ $12.86 | $81K | ownership Δ n/a | +16.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,336 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Murray Aaron James | officer | Purchase | 664 @ $12.88 | $9K | +10.5% of holding | +16.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,000 | Form 4 · filed 26 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.