AEPAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc.Utilities · Regulated Electricas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $120.69 · now $120.69 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AEP has typically landed between $111.73 and $132.67 — a range of −7.4% to +9.9% from the issuance price $120.69.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($120.69) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AEP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $120.69 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$111.73worst · -7.4%$132.67best · +9.9%
  • now $120.69 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $122.28 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $117.37–$127.2
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $111.73–$132.67
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−31.2%−31.2%+0.0%
2020-02-20−30.2%−30.2%+0.0%
2020-02-24−28.0%−30.0%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+21.4%+0.0%+23.4%
2024-04-16+16.8%+0.0%+16.8%
2008-12-02+16.7%−0.8%+16.7%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$73.7B
market cap
$6.77
EPS (TTM)
20.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$21.8B
'20'25
Net income$3.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$6.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr16.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.61
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 32 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $120.69$99.37$156.79
  • DCF (intrinsic)$103.33
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 22.6× · n=32$152.83
  • Analyst target · range $130.00–$150.00$142.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$120.69

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.3%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.1%
n=19
Mar
74%
+1.6%
n=19
Apr
79%
+2.3%
n=19
May
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.3%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.0%
n=19
Aug
53%
−0.0%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.3%
n=19
Oct
78%
+2.4%
n=18
Nov
50%
+1.0%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$139$1042026-09-08: 1 insider sale, $250K — Dixon Kate2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $542K — Ulrich Phillip R.2026-02-24: 1 insider sale, $178K — Ferneau Kelly J2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $575K — FOWKE BENJAMIN G S III2025-11-14: 1 insider sale, $608K — FOWKE BENJAMIN G S III2025-10-10: 1 insider sale, $588K — FOWKE BENJAMIN G S III2025-10-02: 1 insider sale, $113K — Ferneau Kelly J2025-09-12: 1 insider sale, $543K — FOWKE BENJAMIN G S III2025-08-15: 2 insider sales, $944K — FOWKE BENJAMIN G S III, Ferneau Kelly J2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $944K2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $543K2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $700K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $608K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $575K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $720K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $250K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Dixon Kate — Sale on 2026-09-08, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ulrich Phillip R. — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Ferneau Kelly J — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FOWKE BENJAMIN G S III — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector FOWKE BENJAMIN G S III — Sale on 2025-11-14, filed 3 days after the tradedirector FOWKE BENJAMIN G S III — Sale on 2025-10-10, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Ferneau Kelly J — Sale on 2025-10-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FOWKE BENJAMIN G S III — Sale on 2025-09-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector FOWKE BENJAMIN G S III — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Ferneau Kelly J — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Dixon KateofficerSale2,000 @ $125.00$250K−11.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open15,856Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27Ulrich Phillip R.officerSale4,106 @ $132.08$542K−8.9% of holding+5.6%−20.7%42,263Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-24Ferneau Kelly JofficerSale1,351 @ $131.46$178K−8.1% of holding+1.1%−18.6%15,410Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-12FOWKE BENJAMIN G S IIIdirectorSale5,000 @ $115.07$575K−16.2% of holding+1.9%+4.7%25,898Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-14FOWKE BENJAMIN G S IIIdirectorSale5,000 @ $121.58$608K−13.9% of holding−6.6%−1.9%30,898Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-10FOWKE BENJAMIN G S IIIdirectorSale5,000 @ $117.52$588K−12.2% of holding+1.2%+10.6%35,898Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-02Ferneau Kelly JofficerSale1,006 @ $112.00$113K−15.1% of holding+4.1%+19.5%5,676Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-12FOWKE BENJAMIN G S IIIdirectorSale5,000 @ $108.65$543K−10.9% of holding+5.6%+22.2%40,898Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-15FOWKE BENJAMIN G S IIIdirectorSale5,000 @ $111.99$560K−9.8% of holding−7.2%+11.4%45,898Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-15Ferneau Kelly JofficerSale3,428 @ $111.99$384K−32.8% of holding−7.2%+11.4%7,025Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-10Feinberg David MatthewofficerSale8,058 @ $101.49$818K−30.5% of holding−0.3%+1.9%18,332Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-03Feinberg David MatthewofficerSale8,057 @ $102.94$829K−23.5% of holding−4.2%+2.8%26,298Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-19Lies Quinton SofficerSale10,141 @ $102.68$1.0M−51.2% of holding−2.9%+8.6%9,658Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

224 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-01Fehrman WilliamdirectorWithheld for tax6,283133,539Form 4
2026-08-01Hall Greg BofficerWithheld for tax1,74134,408Form 4
2026-06-30Stoddard Daniel G.directorAward / grant01,631Form 4
2026-06-30Stoddard Daniel G.directorAward / grant05,186Form 4
2026-06-30Von Thaer LewisdirectorAward / grant08,320Form 4
2026-06-30GARCIA ART AdirectorAward / grant02,852Form 4
2026-06-30LIN SANDRA BEACHdirectorAward / grant019,772Form 4
2026-06-30McCarthy Margaret MdirectorAward / grant03,660Form 4
2026-06-30Tucker Sara MartinezdirectorAward / grant032,579Form 4
2026-06-30Roberts DaryldirectorAward / grant0761Form 4
2026-06-30FOWKE BENJAMIN G S IIIdirectorAward / grant07,070Form 4
2026-06-30Sauvage Joseph GdirectorAward / grant01,820Form 4
2026-05-01Hall Greg BofficerWithheld for tax4,30636,019Form 4
2026-05-01Cannon Douglas AofficerWithheld for tax1,77025,655Form 4
2026-05-01Dixon KateofficerWithheld for tax63617,780Form 4
2026-03-31Stoddard Daniel G.directorAward / grant01,619Form 4
2026-03-31LIN SANDRA BEACHdirectorAward / grant019,322Form 4
2026-03-31GARY HUNTER CLARKdirectorAward / grant03,684Form 4
2026-03-31Linginfelter Henry PdirectorAward / grant03,684Form 4
2026-03-31Sauvage Joseph GdirectorAward / grant01,498Form 4
2026-03-31Von Thaer LewisdirectorAward / grant07,951Form 4
2026-03-31GARCIA ART AdirectorAward / grant02,523Form 4
2026-03-31McCarthy Margaret MdirectorAward / grant03,325Form 4
2026-03-31Tucker Sara MartinezdirectorAward / grant032,037Form 4
2026-03-31FOWKE BENJAMIN G S IIIdirectorAward / grant06,710Form 4
2026-03-31Stoddard Daniel G.directorAward / grant04,840Form 4
2026-03-31Roberts DaryldirectorAward / grant0447Form 4
2026-03-10Ulrich Phillip R.officerAward / grant11042,373Form 4
2026-03-10Fehrman WilliamdirectorAward / grant96138,301Form 4
2026-03-10MIHALIK TREVOR IdirectorAward / grant6179,623Form 4
2026-03-10Dixon KateofficerAward / grant5218,365Form 4
2026-03-10Ulrich Phillip R.officerWithheld for tax5042,323Form 4
2026-03-10Fehrman WilliamdirectorWithheld for tax45138,256Form 4
2026-03-10MIHALIK TREVOR IdirectorWithheld for tax2879,595Form 4
2026-03-10Dixon KateofficerWithheld for tax2418,341Form 4
2026-03-10Ferneau Kelly JofficerAward / grant1420,207Form 4
2026-03-10Cannon Douglas AofficerAward / grant1127,275Form 4
2026-03-10Berntsen RobertofficerAward / grant921,401Form 4
2026-03-10Knapp Alicia RdirectorAward / grant914,485Form 4
2026-03-10Ferneau Kelly JofficerWithheld for tax820,199Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
David J. TaylorHousepurchase2026-06-122026-06-05$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousesale2026-03-062026-02-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
David J. TaylorHousepurchase2026-02-022026-01-16$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousesale2025-11-182025-11-03$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousesale2025-11-182025-11-03$1–15K
Rick LarsenHousepurchase2025-10-162025-10-06$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousepurchase2025-10-072025-09-22$1–15K
George WhitesidesHousesale2025-04-232025-03-24$15–50K
David J. TaylorHousesale2025-04-032025-03-10$1–15K
Virginia FoxxHousepurchase2025-01-062024-12-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
John JamesHousesale2024-09-062024-09-04$1–15K
John JamesHousepurchase2024-09-022023-11-10$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.