AEOAmerican Eagle Outfitters, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Apparel - Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.81 · now $14.81 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AEO has typically landed between $11.85 and $18.10 — a range of −20.0% to +22.2% from the issuance price $14.81.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.81) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AEO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.81 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$11.85worst · -20.0%$18.1best · +22.2%
  • now $14.81 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.52 (-1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.23–$15.82
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $11.85–$18.1
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−47.6%−47.6%+0.0%
2020-03-04−47.3%−47.3%+0.0%
2020-02-18−45.4%−45.4%+3.2%
3 best
2020-05-06+74.6%+0.0%+74.6%
2020-05-07+72.9%+0.0%+72.9%
2020-05-05+70.2%+0.0%+70.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
30%
−0.7%
n=20
Feb
65%
+1.6%
n=20
Mar
50%
−2.3%
n=20
Apr
50%
+0.5%
n=20
May
40%
−5.5%
n=20
Jun
50%
−0.6%
n=20
Jul
75%
+4.3%
n=20
Aug
55%
+2.2%
n=20
Sep
55%
+4.2%
n=20
Oct
35%
−2.0%
n=20
Nov
60%
+5.7%
n=20
Dec
40%
+1.1%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$28$122026-07-17: 1 insider sale, $100K — Sable David M.2026-07-07: 2 insider sales, $97K — Spiegel Noel Joseph, MCMILLAN CARY D2026-04-06: 2 insider sales, $100K — Spiegel Noel Joseph, MCMILLAN CARY D2026-01-22: 1 insider sale, $557K — SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L2026-01-21: 2 insider sales, $13.7M — SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L, Spiegel Noel Joseph2026-01-20: 1 insider sale, $12.6M — SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L2026-01-14: 2 insider sales, $50K — MCMILLAN CARY D …2025-12-09: 1 insider sale, $135K — Keefer James H JR2025-12-08: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Baldwin Marisa2025-12-05: 2 insider sales, $10.4M — Foyle Jennifer M., Mathias Michael A.2025-10-03: 1 insider sale, $50K — MCMILLAN CARY D2025-09-18: 2 insider sales, $244K — Keefer James H JR …2025-09-16: 1 insider sale, $809K — Mathias Michael A.2025-09-11: 1 insider sale, $96K — Sable David M.2025-09-08: 4 insider sales, $2.4M — Foyle Jennifer M., Spiegel Noel Joseph, PAGE JANICE E, MCMILLAN CARY D2025-09: 8 open-market sales, $3.5M2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $50K2025-12: 4 open-market sales, $11.9M2026-01: 6 open-market sales, $26.9M2026-04: 2 open-market sales, $100K2026-07: 3 open-market sales, $197K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Sable David M. — Sale on 2026-07-17, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Spiegel Noel Joseph — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MCMILLAN CARY D — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Spiegel Noel Joseph — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MCMILLAN CARY D — Sale on 2026-04-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed same daydirector SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L — Sale on 2026-01-21, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Spiegel Noel Joseph — Sale on 2026-01-21, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY L — Sale on 2026-01-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MCMILLAN CARY D — Sale on 2026-01-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MCMILLAN CARY D — Sale on 2026-01-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Keefer James H JR — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Baldwin Marisa — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Foyle Jennifer M. — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Mathias Michael A. — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector MCMILLAN CARY D — Sale on 2025-10-03, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Keefer James H JR — Sale on 2025-09-18, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Keefer James H JR — Sale on 2025-09-18, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Mathias Michael A. — Sale on 2025-09-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Sable David M. — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Foyle Jennifer M. — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Spiegel Noel Joseph — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector PAGE JANICE E — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MCMILLAN CARY D — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-17Sable David M.directorSale5,779 @ $17.23$100K−9.8% of holding−7.9%not yet — horizon still open53,481Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-07Spiegel Noel JosephdirectorSale2,892 @ $16.78$49K−100.0% of holding+5.7%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-07MCMILLAN CARY DdirectorSale2,892 @ $16.77$49K−100.0% of holding+5.7%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-06Spiegel Noel JosephdirectorSale2,887 @ $17.32$50K−100.0% of holding−13.8%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-06MCMILLAN CARY DdirectorSale2,887 @ $17.23$50K−100.0% of holding−13.8%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-22SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY LdirectorSale21,236 @ $26.23$557K−0.3% of holding−5.0%−39.2%6,386,995Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-21SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY LdirectorSale527,343 @ $25.83$13.6M−7.6% of holding−3.4%−41.7%6,408,231Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-21Spiegel Noel JosephdirectorSale1,896 @ $25.66$49K−100.0% of holding−3.4%−41.7%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-20SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY LdirectorSale500,000 @ $25.27$12.6M−6.7% of holding−3.2%−40.0%6,935,574Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-14MCMILLAN CARY DdirectorSale1,696 @ $26.22$44K−100.0% of holding+0.5%−41.0%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-14MCMILLAN CARY DdirectorSale200 @ $26.20$5K−10.5% of holding+0.5%−41.0%1,696Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-09Keefer James H JRofficerSale5,742 @ $23.49$135K−34.0% of holding+10.7%−31.3%11,154Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-08Baldwin MarisaofficerSale61,319 @ $22.41$1.4M−72.4% of holding+22.6%−27.7%23,364Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-05Foyle Jennifer M.officerSale243,047 @ $24.30$5.9M−55.9% of holding+16.8%−31.2%191,751Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Mathias Michael A.officerSale186,580 @ $24.05$4.5M−71.2% of holding+16.8%−31.2%75,637Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-10-03MCMILLAN CARY DdirectorSale2,945 @ $16.95$50K−100.0% of holding−3.7%+4.8%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-18Keefer James H JRofficerSale12,337 @ $19.75$244K−42.2% of holding−24.1%−10.3%16,896Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-18Keefer James H JRofficerSale0 @ $19.75$5−0.0% of holding−24.1%−10.3%29,233Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-16Mathias Michael A.officerSale40,471 @ $20.00$809K−24.4% of holding−23.8%−12.9%125,637Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-11Sable David M.directorSale5,000 @ $19.22$96K−9.3% of holding−26.0%−10.5%48,640Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08Foyle Jennifer M.officerSale54,950 @ $18.14$997K−19.9% of holding−18.9%−1.3%221,107Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-08Spiegel Noel JosephdirectorSale40,000 @ $18.12$725K−100.0% of holding−18.9%−1.3%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-08PAGE JANICE EdirectorSale26,869 @ $18.04$485K−22.9% of holding−18.9%−1.3%90,383Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-08MCMILLAN CARY DdirectorSale9,002 @ $18.11$163K−100.0% of holding−18.9%−1.3%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

276 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Thanawala RavidirectorAward / grant83,94083,940Form 4
2026-08-03Thanawala RavidirectorAward / grant27,98027,980Form 4
2026-08-03Thanawala RavidirectorAward / grant105,485105,485Form 4
2026-07-24Foyle Jennifer M.officerAward / grant9674,633Form 4
2026-07-24Henke Beth MofficerAward / grant168661Form 4
2026-07-24Baldwin MarisaofficerAward / grant203918Form 4
2026-07-24Spiegel Noel JosephdirectorAward / grant1,290176,764Form 4
2026-07-24Sable David M.directorAward / grant34947,782Form 4
2026-07-24PAGE JANICE EdirectorAward / grant273,713Form 4
2026-07-24MCMILLAN CARY DdirectorAward / grant1,344184,173Form 4
2026-07-24HENRETTA DEBORAH AdirectorAward / grant66991,766Form 4
2026-07-24SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY LdirectorAward / grant1,8898,717Form 4
2026-07-24Mathias Michael A.officerAward / grant3691,713Form 4
2026-07-24Keefer James H JRofficerAward / grant143677Form 4
2026-07-07Henke Beth MofficerWithheld for tax63422,974Form 4
2026-07-07Henke Beth MofficerOption exercise2,0174,037Form 4
2026-07-07Henke Beth MofficerOption exercise62493Form 4
2026-07-07Henke Beth MofficerOption exercise2,07923,608Form 4
2026-07-01MCMILLAN CARY DdirectorAward / grant2,8922,892Form 4
2026-07-01HENRETTA DEBORAH AdirectorAward / grant2,89291,097Form 4
2026-07-01Spiegel Noel JosephdirectorAward / grant2,8922,892Form 4
2026-07-01Sable David M.directorAward / grant2,89259,260Form 4
2026-07-01PAGE JANICE EdirectorAward / grant2,892101,003Form 4
2026-04-24MCMILLAN CARY DdirectorAward / grant1,267182,829Form 4
2026-04-24HENRETTA DEBORAH AdirectorAward / grant61288,205Form 4
2026-04-24PAGE JANICE EdirectorAward / grant263,686Form 4
2026-04-24Foyle Jennifer M.officerAward / grant9153,666Form 4
2026-04-24SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY LdirectorAward / grant1,7816,828Form 4
2026-04-24Sable David M.directorAward / grant32947,433Form 4
2026-04-24Spiegel Noel JosephdirectorAward / grant1,216175,474Form 4
2026-04-24Baldwin MarisaofficerAward / grant192715Form 4
2026-04-24Henke Beth MofficerAward / grant177555Form 4
2026-04-24Chandrasekaran SujathadirectorAward / grant20830,024Form 4
2026-04-24Keefer James H JRofficerAward / grant136534Form 4
2026-04-24Mathias Michael A.officerAward / grant3501,344Form 4
2026-04-02SCHOTTENSTEIN JAY LdirectorWithheld for tax31,6102,272,971Form 4
2026-04-02Foyle Jennifer M.officerWithheld for tax22,591316,337Form 4
2026-04-02Mathias Michael A.officerWithheld for tax6,913138,106Form 4
2026-04-02Baldwin MarisaofficerWithheld for tax4,20152,037Form 4
2026-04-02Henke Beth MofficerWithheld for tax1,91121,529Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.